February 2026

[Matthew70]

50 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/lake-erie-january-more-ice-23-years-9.7067884

Maybe the old style winters are coming back. 

[Matthew70]

35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ah, yeah.  I forget he is in the TRI right now!  Awesome for him!!!

Weeklies looked decent.  Feb10-20 there is a -NAO w/ a trough undercutting the block from Seattle to Savannah.  That is often a great setup, but still a ways to go before that - so it could change.  But the 500 map looks good.  I always kind of find that February is a month where we look for windows of winter precip.  It is also a month where the jet can buckle on very short notice - remember that February is a time when the long wave winter pattern at 500 breaks down over the NH.  That means that the amplitude of troughs/ridges often increase and the frequency of those troughs/ridge can be more numerous.  It can be a month of chaos.  I wouldn't even worry about d10-16 right now....very likely to change many times.  And this week is not without things to track.  Next weekend has ago be watched.  It is weird, but weekend winter storms are incredibly common as are storms on a 7 day rotation.

I had forgotten about the wave lengths changing in February.  Winter storms in February usually are wet snows & bigger. Hopefully no more ice.   

[jaxjagman]

13 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Maybe the old style winters are coming back. 

Could be,but if this was what the MJO showed in March of 2021, i'd be getting excited..lol

[Matthew70]

9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Could be,but if this was what the MJO showed in March of 2021, i'd be getting excited..lol

I read where it will take sometime for the moisture return off the gulf to help fuel severe setups. Due to how cold the gulf has become.  No idea if that would be true.  I definitely feel we will have some very sharp battles between warm & cold from frontal passages.  

[jaxjagman]

20 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I read where it will take sometime for the moisture return off the gulf to help fuel severe setups. Due to how cold the gulf has become.  No idea if that would be true.  I definitely feel we will have some very sharp battles between warm & cold from frontal passages.  

Possibly,its still warm into the GOM,be interesting to see how it cools the next few days

[jaxjagman]

14 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Possibly,its still warm into the GOM,be interesting to see how it cools the next few days

This map should have a better visualzation today

[jaxjagman]

SSTS in the modern day era since summer has been well AN since summer,still be interesting to see what happens in the upcoming days

[Matthew70]

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

SSTS in the modern day era since summer has been well AN since summer,still be interesting to see what happens in the upcoming days

What does the SSTS mean.  I’m sure I could google & find out.

[jaxjagman]

51 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

What does the SSTS mean.  I’m sure I could google & find out.

Just look at the red line,the GOM has been one of the warmest since the 1980's

[BlunderStorm]

The tuesday/wednesday shortwave:

Hmm.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

The tuesday/wednesday shortwave:

Hmm.

I would almost guarantee that will have at least a little front end thump of sleet and snow for some spots. Now it may not be a big thump since it doesn't look like it has too much .qpf, but I've seen this little show a few times, after snow and cold is in place. 

  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah, speaking of High Knob, VA and Black Mt, KY from my obs post......

6z RGEM

[Vol4Life]

Interesting that the 6z GFS showed a very similar setup with a clipper/ULL type system this coming Sunday evening for much of ETN.  Obviously, 7 days out, but the GFS has done a good job of sniffing out potential 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I would almost guarantee that will have at least a little front end thump of sleet and snow for some spots. Now it may not be a big thump since it doesn't look like it has too much .qpf, but I've seen this little show a few times, after snow and cold is in place. 

  

Apparently KMRX and KJKL have differing opinions irt precip along the KY/VA Border Counties from that. Could be One's using different Model than the the Other. JKL has mix to Snow for Harlan while MRX has predominantly Rain and quite a bit warmer on this side of the Border.

[jaxjagman]

In the long range i'd stick with what the JMA is showing with the MJO.The CFS has some bias with the tropical convection into the WP/MC from Rossby and Kelvin Waves,you can clearly see this once again,this causes contructive/destructive interference with the MJO signal

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah, speaking of High Knob, VA and Black Mt, KY from my obs post......

6z RGEM

Euro close to that. Wouldn't surprise me at all. 

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

The tuesday/wednesday shortwave:

Hmm.

Bears watching. I wouldn't buy into the mainly Rain Depiction most our spitting out. Thermals mighty close. Euro and RGEM may score again here.