1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[GBOVolz]

Flurries in Halls/Ft City


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[GBOVolz]

[mention=22823]GBOVolz[/mention] are you still on VQ? Ol’ Matt has a Snowquest thread going.  About an hour ago, he posted that snow totals were coming down in and around Knox.  Not sure where’s he seeing that unless he’s looking at the NAM.  Everything else has been consistent.  I know he’s apparently a meteorologist which made me wonder what he’s looking at.

I’m on there but i never look.


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[GBOVolz]

I wouldn’t pay attention to Matt lol

I don’t think he really even looks at mods. I think he just pulls up the NBM and tells everybody what it says.


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[Carvers Gap]

The sun did the work today.  This isn't going to stick until the sun angle goes down and the temp drops.  Temps are above predictions IMBY.  It is snowing, but not even thinking about sticking on anything....not metal surfaces, not mulch, not raised surfaces.  Definitely not rooftops or roads.   Rates should eventually overcome that, but I am surprised that the cold temps didn't allow for this to immediately stick.  I am not gonna complain about the sun, because we would kind of be screwed without it.  LOL.  With two days of below freezing temps...rates still do matter.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, GBOVolz said:

I’m on there but i never look.


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His Reelfoot Lake post about 5-10 minutes before the tornado hit there was pretty epic.  He basically told everyone to tell anyone(they knew) on that lake to get off it immediately.  He was very adamant, and very right.

[GBOVolz]

His Reelfoot Lake post about 5-10 minutes before the tornado hit there was pretty epic.  He basically told everyone to tell anyone(they knew) on that lake to get off it immediately.  He was very adamant, and very right.

He gets a ton of credit for that


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[housemtnTN]

Snowing I-81 near greene county

[Save the itchy algae!]

Up to 38 here, feels like 60

[housemtnTN]

* flurry. Sorry.

[Tucker1027]

[Vol4Life]

New update:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1248 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

TNZ014-015-037>039-068>071-073-086-VAZ001-310915-
/O.CON.KMRX.WS.W.0003.260130T1800Z-260201T0600Z/
Claiborne-Hancock-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-
Northwest Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Monroe-Lee-
Including the cities of Lenoir City, Maynardville, Luttrell,
Morristown, Arthur, Happy Valley, Pigeon Forge, Springdale,
Evanston, Sharps Chapel, Seymour, Sneedville, Treadway,
Knoxville, Bullet Creek, White Pine, Bean Station, Kyles Ford,
Lake Forest, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Rose Hill,
Russellville, McMahan, Madisonville, Bearden, Jefferson City,
Dandridge, Kodak, Harrisburg, Sevierville, Alpha,
Harrogate-Shawanee, Loudon, Clairfield, Lone Mountain, Paulette,
Sweetwater, Sandlick, Norris Lake, Alcoa, Maryville, and Howard
Quarter
1248 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 to
  9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...3 to 6 inches of snow are expected between Lee County VA
  and south toward the I-40 corridor in TN. 4 to 7 inches along the
  I-40 corridor and south toward the foothills of the east TN
  mountains. Locally higher amounts up to 9 inches across the
  foothills of the east TN mountains.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become difficult by this evening. Hazardous
  travel conditions are expected overnight into Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

 

[John1122]

MRX updated and lowered my snow totals to 1/2 inch. 

[Hurricaneguy]

Just now, John1122 said:

MRX updated and lowered my snow totals to 1/2 inch. 

They must be really banking on the nam being correct for your area

[Vol4Life]

Just now, John1122 said:

MRX updated and lowered my snow totals to 1/2 inch. 

On the point and click?

[John1122]

Just now, Vol4Life said:

On the point and click?

Yes.

[Hurricaneguy]

First very light flurries of the day in Greeneville 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

MRX updated and lowered my snow totals to 1/2 inch. 

My point and click was dropped(max) from 7 to 3.  I think the fact none of this is sticking in the valleys has them rightfully spooked.  The sun is eating into totals big time IMBY.

[Tucker1027]

Did this get posted?

[tnweathernut]

Tracking a snow system is always a rush, but I'll say the quiet part out loud................. it sucks looking at temps, comparing short range models to reality, and waiting for first flakes and accumulations. 

[Carvers Gap]

If I can get 2-3" out of this overnight, I will call it a day.  

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Tucker1027 said:

Did this get posted?

Yes.  Point and clicks have been apparently(and significantly) downgraded west of the I40 corridor.

[Vol4Life]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

If I can get 2-3" out of this overnight, I will call it a day.  

It wasn’t really supposed to start for you until later tonight, correct?  I was thinking around 7 pm.  I thought this was just the appetizer that showed up on the models prior to the ULL rolling through

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

My point and click was dropped(max) from 7 to 3.  I think the fact none of this is sticking in the valleys has them rightfully spooked.  The sun is eating into totals big time IMBY.

It's a fair concern, but I think you were only supposed to be around a half inch by 4:00 pm and an inch at 6:00 pm.  I viewed this as anything falling before dark as bonus flakes.

[tnweathernut]

It's not often these days you see a snowfall prediction map where south and east of I-81 is the expected max zone....

[Tucker1027]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yes.  Point and clicks have been apparently(and significantly) downgraded west of the I40 corridor.

It will be interesting to see who wins.. Peachtree is calling for 1.5 south of Chattanooga in Catoosa County... Feel like MRX is waiting till the last min.

[fountainguy97]

This thing hasn't even started yet. Latest HRRR lays it DOWN across ETN tonight. Temps crashing from 20s down into the teens with a deform band just rocking. 

 

Accumulations don't start until 6-9pm. That's always been the case. at least the last few model runs

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

It's a fair concern, but I think you were only supposed to be around a half inch by 4:00 pm and an inch at 6:00 pm.  I viewed this as anything falling before dark as bonus flakes.

But I want my bonus flakes to stick.  LOL!  Admittedly, my standards are too high given where I live - both latitude and living next to one of the world's largest chemical plants, a large defense plant which makes "stuff" which shakes the ground on Fridays, and a big paper plant.  Yes, for non TRI folks...that would be three industrial plants in addition to a natural rain shadow.  We call this the EB.  The pain is real!

In reality, east of I81 has been bullseye so I consider any snow above 2-3" a bonus.  That RAP map does not give me confidence.  

 

[Daniel Boone]

Just started pouring here. Clouds thickened and dim sun finally blocked out about 15 minutes ago. 

[bearman]

And yet they put out the strongest wording for the Winter Storm Warning, Especially for the I 40 corridor.

[John1122]

This is a pre-event portion. Most accumulations are supposed to be tonight. My forecast for tonight is 80 percent snow, low 12, accumulation 1/2 inch.  It's MRX vs the Euro and all other modeling except the NAM now.