1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[GBOVolz]

50+% for interstate 75 and points east for greater than 4” in the Central Valley




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[TellicoWx]

Very slight bump up in the 18z AIFS...I would honestly take that here and call it a day on this storm.

[John1122]

The Euro AI bumped up totals slightly, continuing the 18/6z vs 12/0z trend. 

[GBOVolz]

This feels like a rabbit hole


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[Daniel Boone]

Check out the 18Z regular Euro. Further West . 8" back to Morristown.

[Vol4Life]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Check out the 18Z regular Euro. Further West . 8" back to Morristown.

Would it be possible to post map?  I don’t have access to 18z 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Check out the 18Z regular Euro. Further West . 8" back to Morristown.

Good run.   Good model to have a good run with.

[John1122]

Dramatically stronger from the Euro. Apparently it just exists to do the opposite of the GFS. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

[TellicoWx]

Saw one of mets say NBM increased but not sure, havent looked. That's what MRX is gonna ride. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Apparently it just exists to do the opposite of the GFS. 

Lucy can't pull the football if she doesn't hold it first, John, and give you some hope! 

[TellicoWx]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

That's close to what I think the AIFS would have looked like (maybe just a tad less) if it had a Kuchera setting.

[John1122]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Lucy can't pull the football if she doesn't hold it first, John, and give you some hope! 

I fully expect a snatch and splat.

[Vol4Life]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

Was the difference that the ULL closed off further west and south?

[TellicoWx]

I'm watching the RGEM close moving forward...if history is to be belived, it usually handles things better than most with these type setups imo.

[GBOVolz]

 

Maybe a little bitching does work…




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[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Was the difference that the ULL closed off further west and south?

It was a bit more neutrally tilted on the Euro and deeper:

Euro left, GFS right 

[ShawnEastTN]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Dramatically stronger from the Euro. Apparently it just exists to do the opposite of the GFS. 

 

 

This looks reasonable to this type of setup, with very clean lines on the synoptic snow, that outside the highest peaks no real terrain favor, nice mostly clean lines north to south.

[TellicoWx]

While its good for overall indicator..until HiRes gets close enough, the resolution is just too low on the globals (similar to the ice setups). 

[Carvers Gap]

My go-to models most winters are the RGEM and Euro at this range.  The AIFS is part of that club now.

[Wurbus]

There is 1 plume that gives Knoxville 2 feet.....I wish I knew what it was smoking before it kicked off its run.

[Carvers Gap]

I hope the narrative is this…Carvers was really slow to get on board with the best snow we have had in years.  LOL.  I am still not on board, and might not be until I see the whites if it’s eyes!  Haha.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

There is 1 plume that gives Knoxville 2 feet.....I wish I knew what it was smoking before it kicked off its run.

You are gonna need to share some of that plume.  

[Vol4Life]

3 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

There is 1 plume that gives Knoxville 2 feet.....I wish I knew what it was smoking before it kicked off its run.

I would cash out and not complain one time about this winter or the next 2 or 3!

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

I hope the narrative is this…Carvers was really slow to get on board with the best snow we have had in years.  LOL.  I am still not on board, and might not be until I see the whites if it’s eyes!  Haha.

Heard that from quite a few people today lol

[Daniel Boone]

16 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Would it be possible to post map?  I don’t have access to 18z 

John got it. I tried but wouldn't do it. Used to no problem.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Heard that from quite a few people today lol

I hate ULL setups.  They (edit)can be really, really good or really, really bad.  Pretty much Tennessee basketball this year…

[GBOVolz]

At least we don’t have to go to the grocery store. I got milk and bread left from last weekend. 4 tanks of propane.


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[Save the itchy algae!]

When I lived in Charlotte these were the types of storms that modeled for the CLT area then ultimately verified NW towards either side of the apps. I think the last one was 2014 or 2015.

[brewman22001]

I hope the narrative is this…Carvers was really slow to get on board with the best snow we have had in years.  LOL.  I am still not on board, and might not be until I see the whites if it’s eyes!  Haha.

Totally understandable. That last one hurt and I’m already chasing the next one going all in


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