1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[ladyjmayo]

2 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

So every model has central valley with. 25 to. 50 ice but still no updated advisory. 

MRX is working on that now. They are deciding which counties need an advisory and which need a warning. It should be out in a few minutes I think. They are also looking at the wind and what needs to be said about that. 

[TellicoWx]

For east tn folks, this setup is where know your climo plays the biggest. Like I know that Tellico has realistically less than a 10% chance of significant icing (just way where situated), I know if I drive 5 mins up 68 into the Notchey Creek/Mt Vernon area their risk grows substantially (past history of power going out there in ice setups)

[Icy Hot]

3 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

NOAA just posted a winter storm warning for most of East Tennessee up to 3 inches of snow and up to 4/10 of an inch of ice

They are slow updating the map, but it’s winter storm warnings, ice storm warnings and winter weather advisories

[Carvers Gap]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ036-067>070-081>085-098>100-240615-
/O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMRX.IS.W.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Anderson-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Sequatchie-
Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
Including the cities of Lone Oak, Jefferson City, Grandview,
White Pine, Oak Ridge, Rockwood, Fairview, Dayton, Old
Washington, Lookout Mountain, Martin Springs, Bearden, Unaka,
Knoxville, Loudon, Powells Crossroads, Athens, Chestnut Hill,
Hiawasse Dam, Hayesville, Dentville, Harriman, Whitwell,
Cartwright, Etowah, Marble, Jasper, Shooting Creek, Lake Forest,
Bradbury, Monteagle, Clear Water, Andrews, Clinton, Eagle
Furnace, Pikeville, Brasstown, Spring City, Signal Mountain,
Murphy, Chattanooga, Dunlap, Palio, Strawberry Plains, Mount
Crest, Topton, Brayton, Cleveland, Lenoir City, Kingston, South
Pittsburg, Melvine, Evensville, Tasso, Dandridge, Cagle, Haletown
(Guild), Violet, Big Spring, Tusquitee, Old Cumberland, and
Oliver Springs
954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 /854 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one
  quarter to one half of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina and East Tennessee.

* WHEN...From 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
  Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any higher ridge tops within the warning
  area, along with portions of the southern Cumberland Plateau,
  Lookout Mountain, Signal Mountain, and Mowbray Mountain will have
  gusty winds in addition to the ice accumulation which will
  increase the risk of tree damage and power outages for these
  locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

[Carvers Gap]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

TNZ012>017-035-037>039-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-240615-
/O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/
Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan-Union-
Grainger-Hamblen-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Harrogate-Shawanee, Bristol TN, Paulette,
Coeburn, Pardee, Honaker, Wise, Howard Quarter, White Oak, South
Holston Dam, Treadway, Petros, Norris Lake, Oneida, Appalachia,
Smokey Junction, Lebanon, Castlewood, Kingsport, Pine Orchard,
Rosedale, Norma, Jellico, Alpha, Lone Mountain, Morristown,
Luttrell, Evanston, Huntsville, Benhams, Springdale, Kyles Ford,
Maynardville, Dye, Bristol VA, Bean Station, Abingdon, Caryville,
Elgin, Hiltons, Big Stone Gap, Big South Fork National,
Clairfield, Rose Hill, Norton, Mooresburg, La Follette, Slick
Rock, High Point, Sharps Chapel, Sneedville, Russellville,
Hansonville, Sandlick, Royal Blue, Fincastle, Arthur, and Elk
Valley
954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between a trace and 3 inches and ice accumulations
  between one tenth and four tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

[ShawnEastTN]

This seems reasonable and smart. The western side of the great valley is likely the area where cold won't scour easily so Ice Storm Warning makes sense, the mountain counties are still covered by WWA and northern areas with Storm Warning.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Carvers Gap]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

TNZ018-040>047-071>074-086-087-101-102-240615-
/O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/
Johnson-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast
Carter-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-West
Polk-East Polk-
Including the cities of Sevierville, Johnson City, Greeneville,
Erwin, Hampton, Newport, Alcoa, Pigeon Forge, Citico, McMahan,
Ducktown, Seymour, Cedar Creek, Parksville, Big Frog Mountain,
Bybee, Neva, Cades Cove, Laurel Bloomery, Shady Valley, Reliance,
Conasauga, Sweetwater, Harrisburg, Archville, Elizabethton,
Bullet Creek, Hartford, Kodak, Madisonville, Happy Valley,
Unicoi, Benton, Limestone Cove, Trade, Mountain City, Maryville,
Doeville, Elkmont, Coker Creek, Turtletown, and Gatlinburg
954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around
  one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch with locally higher ice
  totals. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of East Tennessee.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel will be hazardous. Gusty winds could bring down tree
  branches.

 

[GBOVolz]

For east tn folks, this setup is where know your climo plays the biggest. Like I know that Tellico has realistically less than a 10% chance of significant icing (just way where situated), I know if I drive 5 mins up 68 into the Notchey Creek/Mt Vernon area their risk grows substantially (past history of power going out there in ice setups)

Me in Halls vs Knoxville is like I’m in a totally different county. I will not be surprised if my snow totals are closer to the counties to the north then south of me.


.

[Carvers Gap]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

TNZ041-043-045-047-072-074-087-240600-
/O.NEW.KMRX.HW.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T0000Z/
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter-
Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-
Including the cities of Limestone Cove, Cedar Creek, Erwin,
Hampton, Hartford, Elkmont, Cades Cove, Citico, Coker Creek,
Gatlinburg, and Unicoi
954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, Sevier
  Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast Greene, Southeast
  Monroe, and Unicoi Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher wind gusts up to 80 mph are
  expected across the highest elevations of the foothills such as
  Cove Mountain.

 

[TellicoWx]

Just now, ShawnEastTN said:

This seems reasonable and smart. The western side of the great valley is likely the area where cold won't scour easily so Ice Storm Warning makes sense, the mountain counties are still covered by WWA and northern areas with Storm Warning.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Honestly think should have used the nw zone of Monroe Co for ice storm warning

[ladyjmayo]

And here we go...

[housemtnTN]

I'm really curious what may change over the next 24hrs leading up to this thing kicking off.

[GBOVolz]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Morristown TN954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026TNZ041-043-045-047-072-074-087-240600-/O.NEW.KMRX.HW.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T0000Z/Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Including the cities of Limestone Cove, Cedar Creek, Erwin,Hampton, Hartford, Elkmont, Cades Cove, Citico, Coker Creek,Gatlinburg, and Unicoi954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM ESTSUNDAY...* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.* WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties.* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday.* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher wind gusts up to 80 mph are expected across the highest elevations of the foothills such as Cove Mountain.

 

This scares me more than anything. Just a little bit of ice at the bottom of the mountains. There could be catastrophic tree damage.


.

[Tucker1027]

This is going to be something… ice storm warning and I might not see any frozen precip.


.

[GBOVolz]

With the way technology is now and social media with getting warnings and advisories and stuff like that out, I’m surprised the national weather service hasn’t gone to more of a polygon system with winter weather than still using counties. I understand why you use counties for severe thunderstorm watches, and tornado watches, flood watches… those kinds of things. But there’s multiple counties in East Tennessee that that can have a wide range of winter weather depended upon the location in that county. North of interstate 40 in Knox County just about always has a location advantage over areas south of interstate 40 when we have these 50-50 type systems. In these close call winter systems, my weather in Halls is always closer to the weather in Southern Anderson County, Southern Union County and southern Granger County.


.

[Icy Hot]

6 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

This is going to be something… ice storm warning and I might not see any frozen precip.


.

It’s better to have the public in that county informed of the potential rather than no Notification and then get hit with ice

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

This is going to be something… ice storm warning and I might not see any frozen precip.


.

I pretty much knew when the 12z 3k NAM just rolled....it didn't leave them with a lot of wiggle room.

 

[Tucker1027]

It’s better to have the public in that county informed of the potential rather than no Notification and then get hit with ice

Completely agree.

1 degree is going to make a big difference


.

[Tucker1027]

I pretty much knew when the 12z 3k NAM just rolled....it didn't leave them with a lot of wiggle room.

 

Haven’t even looked at it…. Yeah that will do it


.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z NAM put 1.88" of ice over Chattanooga.  No idea if that is right, but man.

[Carvers Gap]

TRI gets hammered by the 12k NAM.  There are considerable differences between the 12k and 3k regarding Chattanooga and TRI.  I simply refer to you all who live in those places to know your microclimates.  @nrgjeff- maybe he will stop in this afternoon.  No doubt he is busy!

[Carvers Gap]

Are precip totals going up on the short range models at 12z - both NAMs and RGEM?

[GBOVolz]

The 12z NAM put 1.88" of ice over Chattanooga.  No idea if that is right, but man.

My question is whats the air temperatures at the surface for the majority of this event? If they’re only about 30 to 32° then I don’t see there being any road issues. elevated surfaces trees, vehicles, house gutters, etc… we’ll have ice on them, but in my opinion with the warmer temperatures the last couple of days, I think the temperature is will need to be (IMO) 28° or below before we start having road issues.


.

[ShawnEastTN]

Honestly think should have used the nw zone of Monroe Co for ice storm warning

Yeah agree completely!

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

My question is whats the air temperatures at the surface for the majority of this event? If they’re only about 30 to 32° then I don’t see there being any road issues. elevated surfaces trees, vehicles, house gutters, etc… we’ll have ice on them, but in my opinion with the warmer temperatures the last couple of days, I think the temperature is will need to be (IMO) 28° or below before we start having road issues.


.

It has been my experience with these things that it may well depend on which roads get a lot of sun and which don't regarding roads.  I know they started pre-treating yesterday here.  Our road crew guys have somebody who is good with weather.  They didn't wait for the warning packages.

[Vol4Life]

It also largely depends on the rate of precipitation.  If it is pouring rain, it’s not going to freeze.  However, if it’s light rain/sprinkles, it will freeze pretty quickly after contact.

[GBOVolz]

It also largely depends on the rate of precipitation.  If it is pouring rain, it’s not going to freeze.  However, if it’s light rain/sprinkles, it will freeze pretty quickly after contact.

….. that’s a great point about the rain rates. Some of the worst road conditions I’ve ever been in was freezing fog.


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[chasescott66]

New GFS running now.

[AMZ8990]

23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Are precip totals going up on the short range models at 12z - both NAMs and RGEM?

Looks like it, RGEM trended a little further south with its snow line as well.

[Tucker1027]

GFS ups Ice totals for the valley some