1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Mrwolf1972]

Ice numbers have gone up since the morning runs so it is some what cooler throughout the day. 

[Tucker1027]

GFS just has been so constant..... it will need to be throw out with the NAM if it's wrong on this. 

[Scottie16]

We ended up getting a foot. It’s never over fellas.


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[Mrwolf1972]

I mean how does a lp fight this off and move north so far. 

[Matthew70]

I like Dan Thomas 

this is a good forecast and covers pretty much everything

[Scottie16]

Kinda what I was thinking. I would rather have 5ft of snow vs 1/2 inch of ice.


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Yeah. The winds after would not be good either.


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[Scottie16]

I mean how does a lp fight this off and move north so far. 

It’s so damn dense too.


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[Mrwolf1972]

We need the hp to slow down and keep the lp south. 

[GBOVolz]

We ended up getting a foot. It’s never over fellas.


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9” for me


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[Scottie16]

FWIW the RAP is similar to the GFS the whole run.


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[Mrwolf1972]

3 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

FWIW the RAP is similar to the GFS the whole run.


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But only 21 hrs 

[Scottie16]

But only 21 hrs 

Shake and bake


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[Matthew70]

21z H-triple-R showing forecast for midnight Saturday night.  As for Nashville, we should be seeing a mix of sleet...freezing rain at that time that continues through the overnight into Sunday. QPF amounts are at least 1 inch through Sunday morning, and i'm being conservative. Let's pray that much of it is in the form of sleet. If it's ice accretion or even a good part, we'll have major issues here in Nashville and surrounding areas. Heavier ice accretion looks be over southwest Middle Tennessee. .     Boyd 

[housemtnTN]

18 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

9” for me


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Thank you for this. I was wondering what the models showed on this system.

[Hillbilly]

Is this a squall line that is for real? A dumb question but could someone be under an ice storm warning and then a few hours later under a severe storm warning?>?>

[Tucker1027]

Is this a squall line that is for real? A dumb question but could someone be under an ice storm warning and then a few hours later under a severe storm warning?>?>

If they euro is right yes…


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[Matthew70]

Davis Nolan 

 

 

[Matthew70]

6 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

Thank you for this. I was wondering what the models showed on this system.

That’s not for this upcoming system that is a past winter storm.

[Hillbilly]

3 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

If they euro is right yes…


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It looks like it has gotten more intense this run; if that image verifies, lord have mercy...

[Tucker1027]

It looks like it has gotten more intense this run; if that image verifies, lord have mercy...

Yep and that’s going over areas that will get over .50 of ice…

Sometimes you have to look at a model and just say that doesn’t look right. EURO hasn’t looked right to me.


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[housemtnTN]

8 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

That’s not for this upcoming system that is a past winter storm.

Yeah I should've specified for the 2024 system. I never saw any models from it lol.

[Greyhound]

Speaking of the hurricane hunters data now contained in the models…….I don’t remember where I saw this, but it said that GFS would incorporate the data from the dropsondes, and that the data would be made available to the other global programs. , and it would be up to them if they wanted to include it in their model runs. Maybe…..just maybe Euro said “no thanks” and that’s why it’s sticking to the same solutions over and over???

Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong or have additional insight.


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[Tucker1027]

Speaking of the hurricane hunters data now contained in the models…….I don’t remember where I saw this, but it said that GFS would incorporate the data from the dropsondes, and that the data would be made available to the other global programs. , and it would be up to them if they wanted to include it in their model runs. Maybe…..just maybe Euro said “no thanks” and that’s why it’s sticking to the same solutions over and over???

Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong or have additional insight.


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Europe does have every reason to stick it to us from their view point

* not political


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[housemtnTN]

10 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

Speaking of the hurricane hunters data now contained in the models…….I don’t remember where I saw this, but it said that GFS would incorporate the data from the dropsondes, and that the data would be made available to the other global programs. , and it would be up to them if they wanted to include it in their model runs. Maybe…..just maybe Euro said “no thanks” and that’s why it’s sticking to the same solutions over and over???

Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong or have additional insight.


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You make a good point. I'm definitely a noob here, but if your organization focuses on weather forecasting and modeling, it makes me wonder why they wouldn't that want data.

[Matthew70]

32 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Yep and that’s going over areas that will get over .50 of ice…

Sometimes you have to look at a model and just say that doesn’t look right. EURO hasn’t looked right to me.


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Seems I remember not to long ago in the Midwest it was posted where there were severe thunderstorms warnings & blizzard warnings simultaneously. They were overlapping one another.

[Matthew70]

27 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

Yeah I should've specified for the 2024 system. I never saw any models from it lol.

No worries. 

[Greyhound]

One more thing regarding the hurricane hunters data……here’s a study that found their information significantly increases forecast accuracy. So maybe the GFS is truly onto something???!!!

https://www.albany.edu/news-center/news/2025-new-study-shows-hurricane-hunter-flights-significantly-increase-forecast


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yall are trying harder than I was last night! 

[Matthew70]

PLEASE SHARE: We are expecting snow, sleet, freezing rain, & rain. As of now, here’s what our team is thinking as far as snow & ice accum. 
The biggest takeaway is that travel will not only be dangerous but nearly impossible at times. Power outages are expected. Watch @WKRN!

[tjgrogan]

How much ice is East Tennessee going to get specifically Morristown?