January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Silver Meteor]

3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Cant wait to be posting clown maps for that one this time next week only for it to end up shifting to Miami 3 days out. It can snow to the north or the south, but never the interior southeast anymore. Prove me wrong atmosphere.

Look at the isobars on that sumbitch! 

[sakau2007]

i blame myself.

will i ever learn to stop getting invested in winter storms more than 48 hours out?

i was always on the border of a serious ice storm and just a cold rain... but now... temps could soar into the 60s? lol. i'm no expert, but i think that could eat into ice accumulations.

[gopack42]

This reminds me of that time where I thought my girlfriend would love me for the rest of my life.  Key word "thought".  

[LakeNormanStormin]

9 minutes ago, gopack42 said:

This reminds me of that time where I thought my girlfriend would love me for the rest of my life.  Key word "thought".  

I think, therefore I spam...

[btownheel]

Hey folks, there's always the Feb 2 storm. What could go wrong? 

 

Pardon me for being blunt, but f*** that storm.


.

[IceQueen706]

According to FOX 5 out of Atlanta, at 2:15, they are still putting up all ice for GA, more than .50", but I am reading here the EURO moves everything hundreds of miles north, so only a rain?  Or am I misreading?

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, IceQueen706 said:

According to FOX 5 out of Atlanta, at 2:15, they are still putting up all ice for GA, more than .50", but I am reading here the EURO moves everything hundreds of miles north, so only a rain?  Or am I misreading?

You’re not misreading. The Euro is a cold rain for Atlanta. Everything is trending in the wrong direction. 

[LakeNormanStormin]

5 minutes ago, IceQueen706 said:

According to FOX 5 out of Atlanta, at 2:15, they are still putting up all ice for GA, more than .50", but I am reading here the EURO moves everything hundreds of miles north, so only a rain?  Or am I misreading?

This sexy storm is screaming cold rain for most that thought we'd get a storm of the decades. Where are you at?

[burgertime]

Lol it's good to see some things never change around. Everyone there's a cliff diving thread specifically for this. I'm in the camp that it's unlikely a low would plow that far north but we shall see. Timing in that baja low is everything and unfortunetly we still have some time before we know when it will actually kick. 

[LakeNormanStormin]

Just now, burgertime said:

Lol it's good to see some things never change around. Everyone there's a cliff diving thread specifically for this. I'm in the camp that it's unlikely a low would plow that far north but we shall see. Timing in that baja low is everything and unfortunetly we still have some time before we know when it will actually kick. 

Bet the farm a weakened HP and a wonky Baja LP will end this tomorrow 

[IceQueen706]

8 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

This sexy storm is screaming cold rain for most that thought we'd get a storm of the decades. Where are you at?

Clayton in Rabun County, almost to SC on 76 E

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Bet the farm a weakened HP and a wonky Baja LP will end this tomorrow 

Look I wasn't buying the all snow 30 inches in most spots....but I'm suspect of the Euro solution. There's a 1040 high that books it at the last second and all the super cold air gets beat by the storm. It's possible but I'd wait to see what 6z and the models show for later today. 

[LakeNormanStormin]

Not wrong. But the trends don't lie. This could easily be a Mid Atlantic problem by the 6z. How often have we seen this in the last 5 years? Alot

[LakeNormanStormin]

6 minutes ago, IceQueen706 said:

Clayton in Rabun County, almost to SC on 76 E

It was an ice storm of epic proportions a model run or two ago. Now a cold rain. Stayed tuned for the 6z models when we wake up.

[WiseWeather]

It was an ice storm of epic proportions a model run or two ago. Now a cold rain. Stayed tuned for the 6z models when we wake up.

Whos going to sleep?


.

[LakeNormanStormin]

Just now, WiseWeather said:

Whos going to sleep?


.

Heard. My rollercoaster was snow storm of the century to ice storm that nobody wants. Eager to see how it plays out.

[burgertime]

3 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Not wrong. But the trends don't lie. This could easily be a Mid Atlantic problem by the 6z. How often have we seen this in the last 5 years? Alot

I haven't been around for many of them but usually there's always some issue like no real high pressure, no real cold air source to our north, relying on dynamics etc.. That's where the NW trend kills chances. Correct me if I'm wrong but you usually don't see this setup where there is tons of arctic air to our north, hp systems in place and this sort of retreat. Just looks wonky to me...but I'm out of practice. 

[LakeNormanStormin]

1 minute ago, burgertime said:

I haven't been around for many of them but usually there's always some issue like no real high pressure, no real cold air source to our north, relying on dynamics etc.. That's where the NW trend kills chances. Correct me if I'm wrong but you usually don't see this setup where there is tons of arctic air to our north, hp systems in place and this sort of retreat. Just looks wonky to me...but I'm out of practice. 

There is a kink somewhere. Cold is all kinds of backed up in Canada. Something is modeled wrong. Either HP is weaker as advertised. Or the Baja low does something unexpected in its phasing. Something isn't right.

[LakeNormanStormin]

EURO won't lie. It just screams the inevitable 

[LakeNormanStormin]

Stay up for the GFS for hopium. And the EURO for reality. Bust city. All those clown maps were powder teases.

[snowblock]

Anyone got the latest NAM?

[burgertime]

Just now, snowblock said:

Anyone got the latest NAM?

It's better than the euro with the  HP but thermals are on a razor's edge for upstate and north. I do think overall it looks better than the Euro but I'm on my phone at the moment and at 84 hours it should be taken with a grain of salt. 

[LakeNormanStormin]

NAM isn't great. But not terrible.

Someone said look north of DFW.

Sleet where we want snow.

Not the trend the early crew wants.

[NorthHillsWx]

We have now crossed the line where the storm mode has changed. We won because energy was sliding under a 1040 mb high. This is now a super amped coastal. Even the big cities north of us are at risk of mix now if this is the case, like any nor Easter, BAM was right… That being said, be wary of the wedge eroding this fast, that’s a 1040, not a 1026 sitting in prime CAD position. EURO notoriously scours the wedge too quick. While hope for a snowstorm is fading and probably the least likely outcome for anyone on the board, I don’t see a way around a 2002-like ice event somewhere in the Carolina’s. Do not let your guard down, this can be a memorable storm, but for ALL the wrong reasons. What a freaking nightmare of a hobby 

[NorthHillsWx]

Some of the trends on the EURO are the most stunning reversals I have ever seen. Parts of north Georgia have gone from the mid 20s to the mid 60s in 4 runs. It’s the king, but that is hard to take in. I am very skeptical the wedge just evaporates. 

[LakeNormanStormin]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We have now crossed the line where the storm mode has changed. We won because energy was sliding under a 1040 mb high. This is now a super amped coastal. Even the big cities north of us are at risk of mix now if this is the case, like any nor Easter, BAM was right… That being said, be wary of the wedge eroding this fast, that’s a 1040, not a 1026 sitting in prime CAD position. EURO notoriously scours the wedge too quick. While hope for a snowstorm is fading and probably the least likely outcome for anyone on the board, I don’t see a way around a 2002-like ice event somewhere in the Carolina’s. Do not let your guard down, this can be a memorable storm, but for ALL the wrong reasons. What a freaking nightmare of a hobby 

Said as well as anyone could say. 0.50 inches of ice messes me up.

[NorthHillsWx]

Webb throwing up the white flag 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013860089803804790?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

[NorthHillsWx]

Sadly, why this is happening is easy to explain. Models have been moving the trough further and further west for two days. What that does is twofold: dumps cold air further west and leads to an earlier and full capture of the Baja low. Result is an earlier phase, and the SER can flex again with the trough axis to the west. This is textbook coastal fail mode for the SE. The surprising thing to me is simply how poorly this was modeled. We’re talking a 500 mile shift since yesterday morning. With very good blocking setting up, I’m still somewhat skeptical of this cutting straight into the high, but we’re walking a fail line between ice and rain at this point if these solutions are realistic with the NS trough axis. I did not think I’d see a Baja low phase in Texas/oklahoma 24 hours ago but that’s what the modeling consensus shows us

[lilj4425]

Honestly, I hope this system continues trending north and just goes completely away. I want 70 and sunny if it’s not gonna snow. 

[NorthHillsWx]

 

ICON much more amped. Big jump north again. Basically no snow in NC even at border. Holds the wedge, crippling ice.