2026 Foothills thread

[BooneWX]

That FV3 run was beautiful too. 

[Ernest T Bass]

I like where we sit overall with the initial disturbance at least for now, but the coastal development is going to make or break some weenie hearts to the east.  

[wncsnow]

The radar is going to be fascinating to watch tomorrow night

[wncsnow]

AIGFS is better again for us and the upstate

[BooneWX]

Solid GFS run incoming 

[wncsnow]

This is trending better for us and possibly worse for the triangle. 

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

AIGFS is better again for us and the upstate

Would like to see it quit digging so far south though. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Would like to see it quit digging so far south though. 

Yeah I think its better to be south than north though. I think it will correct north some the last 24 H

[BooneWX]

Hall of fame gfs run in terms of everyone being happy 

[wncsnow]

P.S. Theres another signal still for late next week

[wncsnow]

One thing we dont need is the ULL to trend weaker. That's one thing to really keep an eye out on now. 

[WNC_Fort]

I miss the 2009 and 2018 storms where nothing ever wavered but an inch or two haha. We can’t latch onto a storm 2 days out much less a week anymore 

[wncsnow]

Just now, WNC_Fort said:

I miss the 2009 and 2018 storms where nothing ever wavered but an inch or two haha. We can’t latch onto a storm 2 days out much less a week anymore 

We're still in a good spot for at least a 2-4 event and likely 3-6. 

[WNC_Fort]

the old McDowell county special

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

the old McDowell county special

Lol they just called for 3-6 the last storm so take what they say with a grain of salt

[BooneWX]

If we don’t lose that meso low too far south, we’ll all be fine. Can’t see an issue of a screw zone if that’s the case. If we trend towards the Canadian camp then yes, someone is getting screwed because I’d favor a heavy band from Statesville through Forest City and into Greenville. 

[wncsnow]

This was their first call for the last system

[strongwxnc]

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/latest-snow-events/

 

Cool map about snow history in NC based og amount since last. 

[lilj4425]

Big increase from GSP: 

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Big increase from GSP: 

Makes sense given the ratios we’re looking at. Really won’t take much qpf for a very nice event. I’d expect winter storm warnings soon. 

[BooneWX]

I was digging into the FV3 and it actually left some meat on the bone. I think it should’ve been close to a foot for many of us. If you look at soundings Friday evening area wide, they support snowfall. The surface map didn’t reflect the saturated column. 

[wncsnow]

AIFS was steady and  did not move south again. Great! Great Euro run too!

[wncsnow]

Winter Storm Warning for mountains 

[CheoahBald1]

AIFS was steady and  did not move south again. Great! Great Euro run too!

I’m seeing more and more pink from the foothills west slowly but surly


.

[buckeyefan1]

Ya’ll, it sure doesn’t take much precip to get great totals with these ratios. When mby got 9” back in ‘10 it was only the equivalent of about .27  I loved that storm

[BooneWX]

Fwiw, the grid forecast from GSP has snow accumulating as early as dinner time tomorrow. 

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Fwiw, the grid forecast from GSP has snow accumulating as early as dinner time tomorrow. 

Yep its going to start early I think. 

[Met1985]

Yeah tomorrow evening fellas.

[strongwxnc]

Quote

ARea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
153 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning 
across the North Carolina mountains. The remainder of the watch will 
likely be upgraded to a warning tonight.

Snowfall totals have increased with the highest totals still 
expected along and east of I-77, but confidence in heavy snow is 
increasing for portions of the Upstate and mountains.

Quote

Key message 2: A significant winter weather event will impact the 
region from Friday night through Saturday night, with snow expected 
to be the primary precipitation type. Due to cold temperatures 
leading up to the event, impacts to travel will be significant.

While some variations in model guidance persist, the overall 
forecast trend is coming into better agreement with high confidence 
in a significant winter storm for the western Carolinas and 
northeast Georgia. A potent Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV) is 
currently analyzed just north of the Great Lakes within a broader 
gyre over southeast Canada. Farther south, a subtropical jet extends 
from the eastern Pacific to the Gulf Coast with a lead shortwave 
trough diving through the Southern Plains. And to the west, a tall 
western ridge resides from the Great Basin through the Cascades and 
into the Canadian Rockies. Heading through tonight and into 
tomorrow, the TPV will drop across the Midwest and dig into the 
Mississippi Valley. The trough will initially have a very positive 
tilt to it, but will quickly take on a neutral tilt over middle 
Tennessee before becoming negatively tilted as it swings across the 
Southern Appalachians through the day on Saturday. The latest trend 
in guidance has been for a slower evolution of the TPV, which would 
allow for the lead southern stream wave to get out ahead of the 
bowling ball upper low and initiate surface cyclogenesis along a 
coastal baroclinic zone along the Carolina coast. 

Furthermore, guidance has latched onto the development of a mesolow 
in the lee of the Southern Appalachians with the mesolow moving 
southeast through the Savannah River Valley and into the South 
Carolina coastal plain. This would place much of the forecast area 
in a very favorable location north of the mesolow and north of the 
bowling ball closed upper low. Here, strong forcing for ascent will 
be present in conjunction with convergent low-level flow, some 
component of which will have a moisture connection to the Atlantic. 
This will also foster the development of a notable band of 850mb 
frontogenesis across the Upstate and into the North Carolina 
Piedmont and portions of the foothills. The result of which has been 
a notable southwest trend in QPF with an uptick along the I-85 
corridor. Snow will start as early as tomorrow afternoon across the 
mountains as upper divergence increases as the TPV encroaches on the 
Tennessee Valley. A strong upslope component of the flow will also 
help force precipitation across the mountains. Snow will then 
overspread areas east of the mountains late Friday night into early 
Saturday morning. The event will peak through Saturday morning into 
the early afternoon before gradually tapering off from west to east 
late afternoon through the overnight hours with all snow coming to 
an end by daybreak Sunday morning.

This will be a very unusual and highly anomalous event in many ways 
with near record low 500mb heights, very cold temperatures and rare 
Snow-to-Liquid Ratios (SLRs) of 15:1 - 20:1. The dendritic growth 
zone will be very deep with plentiful forcing for efficient snow 
growth. Thus, it won't take much QPF to reach warning criteria snow 
across practically the entire forecast area. The winter storm watch 
across the mountains has been upgraded to a winter storm warning 
owing to earlier onset time tomorrow afternoon and evening. Snow 
will take longer to break out east of the mountains and the winter 
storm watch here will likely be upgraded to a winter storm warning 
with the overnight forecast package. Forecast confidence in where 
the highest snowfall totals occur is moderate and some variability 
still exists. Right now, the highest totals are still generally 
along and east of I-77, but this is subject to change pending the 
evolution of the mesolow. A band of heavy snow could setup along a 
corridor extending from Greenville/Spartanburg to Charlotte. 
Snowfall totals along and north of I-40 are a little more uncertain 
now with the heaviest snow potentially shifting south towards I-85. 
Nevertheless, warning criteria snow of at least 3" is still highly 
likely. There has also been a signal for a "dry slot" between snow 
bands in the general vicinity of northeast Georgia, although where 
this occurs is still uncertain - but even there warning criteria 
snow should still be realized. The ceiling is high with this event 
and a swath of 8-12"+ totals cannot be ruled out where the greatest 
banding is able to set up shop. 

 

 

 

 

[BooneWX]

Just now, strongwxnc said:

 

 

 

 

Little bit of a punch to the nuts to hear them express doubt about totals along I40, but we press on. You may be ground zero!!