January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

I wouldn’t completely check out on either wave.


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Ditto.  The risk is that they jog north.  I suspect they are under modeled.  Besides, w/ phase 8 lurking after the 25th....I highly doubt this is our only window.  I could make a pretty good case right now that we have a couple of really good windows in February.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ditto.  The risk is that they jog north.  I suspect they are under modeled.  Besides, w/ phase 8 lurking after the 25th....I highly doubt this is our only window.  I could make a pretty good case right now that we have a couple of really good windows in February.

There are a lot of years we are sitting at Jan 12, hoping things can reset to have a chance late February into March.  We are looking at a lot of cold air moving through, and a couple of chances at snow this week. We may miss both, but what we are looking at currently is light years better than where we find ourselves most years.

[Scottie16]

Just a random shower thought: 
 
This whole vort mess that's tangled up and been a pain for models.... is there a road where some of this mess turns into a 50/50 and suppresses a wave past.... let's say 200 hours or so? 

Models are struggling, I’ve spent the better half of my day looking at all the SRM and it’s the least confident I have been with them in quite some time.


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[Carvers Gap]

I haven't even begun to read back through this thread - not sure I want to.  Our washer is broken, so I have been at the laundromat.  I would rather look at a phase 6 MJO all day than to have my washer out.  

Anyway, we can't be rookies in this forum.  We know that sometime winter never comes, but we also know that sometimes it comes late.  I think a lot of us have been conditioned to the idea that Feb is gonna be not so good due to recent Nina climatology.  But....that isn't the case every year.  In fact, most of us have had pretty decent winters of late, and don't make me pull out your climatology records to prove it!  Haha.  

And trust me...you don't want to be the person who complains all winter about no snow only to be sitting on 5-10" of powder while others are watching it rain, and have had to read it all winter.  So far, we have been awesome in that aspect.  But go to the MA forum for references to that one.

I thought the 500 pattern on the Weeklies was decent.  I would have talked more about them yesterday, but didn't want to interfere w/ short term disco.  There are good things happening in the LR IMHO.  We also have to remember that models have been turning on a dime.  Once that phase 8 potential gets ingested...could be a pretty drastic cold swing.  

Already, the ensembles are HONKING for more cold at 12z w/ no crazy, long-term chinooks in sight.  I remain optimistic.  

 

[Scottie16]

Just a random shower thought: 
 
This whole vort mess that's tangled up and been a pain for models.... is there a road where some of this mess turns into a 50/50 and suppresses a wave past.... let's say 200 hours or so? 

Could you clip the vort on the WRF? I tried but it keeps giving me an error.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Could you clip the vort on the WRF? I tried but it keeps giving me an error.


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happy to, which wrf though

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

There are a lot of years we are sitting at Jan 12, hoping things can reset to have a chance late February into March.  We are looking at a lot of cold air moving through, and a couple of chances at snow this week. We may miss both, but what we are looking at currently is light years better than where we find ourselves most years.

I don't want to jinx us too much, but yeah....far better than normal.  The 12z ensembles are trying to pull off a really stellar pattern for later winter...EPO/PNA w/ blocking over the top.  If that verifies, folks better hang on to their butts.  It could get wild.  I am still concerned (because I like my pipes) that it is very likely we trap a portion of the TPV and send it south.  That mechanism is present on modeling for at least the next 16 days and another window in Feb.  

[Scottie16]

Ditto.  The risk is that they jog north.  I suspect they are under modeled.  Besides, w/ phase 8 lurking after the 25th....I highly doubt this is our only window.  I could make a pretty good case right now that we have a couple of really good windows in February.

I think some of us have been spoiled in the past few years of a good thumping of snow early in January.

We really don’t see that many opportunities this early so it’s a plus. I don’t believe any model has a direct handle on it. While some may agree on location/track they will differ in moisture/ temps.

I used to be a big follower of David Aldrich due to how positive he was but since he left the area I’ve started talking to Mike Witcher and he’s still skeptical of what the models are putting out.


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[Scottie16]

happy to, which wrf though

ARW. I never saw a vort tighten and move direct west like that.

Thanks Holston.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

ARW. I never saw a vort tighten and move direct west like that.

Thanks Holston.


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Here ye go:

 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Scottie16 said:

I think some of us have been spoiled in the past few years of a good thumping of snow early in January.

We really don’t see that many opportunities this early so it’s a plus. I don’t believe any model has a direct handle on it. While some may agree on location/track they will differ in moisture/ temps.

I used to be a big follower of David Aldrich due to how positive he was but since he left the area I’ve started talking to Mike Witcher and he’s still skeptical of what the models are putting out.


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Cosgrove noted over the weekend that modeling is having a very difficult time w/ the MJO regions.  In some cases, MJO region modeling is changing every 12 hours according to LC.  I almost wonder if our wx models are too sensitive to that area now.  I also wonder if there is an overall data or programming problem.  It may well be that the severe cold seen in some areas of NA is also causing havoc.

I wondered how cold western Canada had been.  We have all seen the massively cold departures there.  I read a report from a guy and his wife drove through through western Canada over Christmas on their way to the SE from Alaska.  They were stuck for 3 days in a hotel while the cold and storms blew threw - froze the road solid.  Their journey took 3 days longer than it usually did.  So, I think cold like that really messes with modeling.  Feedback on modeling this winter has been really bad.

I am a huge believer in getting cold in place, and then let it rip.  I do think we have cold opportunities upcoming after this week. As tnweathernut noted, that is far better than some years.

[Scottie16]

Cosgrove noted over the weekend that modeling is having a very difficult time w/ the MJO regions.  In some cases, MJO region modeling is changing every 12 hours according to LC.  I almost wonder if our wx models are too sensitive to that area now.  I also wonder if there is an overall data or programming problem.  It may well be that the severe cold seen in some areas of NA is also causing havoc.
I wondered how cold western Canada had been.  We have all seen the massively cold departures there.  I read a report from a guy and his wife drove through through western Canada over Christmas on their way to the SE from Alaska.  They were stuck for 3 days in a hotel while the cold and storms blew threw - froze the road solid.  Their journey took 3 days longer than it usually did.  So, I think cold like that really messes with modeling.  Feedback on modeling this winter has been really bad.
I am a huge believer in getting cold in place, and then let it rip.  I do think we have cold opportunities upcoming after this week. As tnweathernut noted, that is far better than some years.

-55.4 in the Yukon on the 26th. Coldest it’s been in that area in 26 years. They still are going through attic outbreaks. I couldn’t imagine driving through extreme temperatures like that. I believe it’s something with the programming along with the cold. Some models are suggesting that Florida will be colder than North Dakota Friday morning..

Seems like we have every ingredient but moisture and I see what the models say but it just doesn’t digest well with me.


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[Scottie16]

Here ye go:

 

Thank you!


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[Scottie16]

Here ye go:

 

I’m hoping we see some action with the vort moving through Texas


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

15 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

I’m hoping we see some action with the vort moving through Texas


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 I think the kicker over the lakes is just too much and will swooshle it out to sea unfortunately. 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

MJO phases 1-2-3 centered on JFM are cold.  The Weeklies yesterday were not warm.  I have looked at them, and I looked at them again to be sure.  

Thank you!  I don’t mind being wrong at all about it being warm in winter.  Give me cold & snow all year! 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Scottie16 said:

-55.4 in the Yukon on the 26th. Coldest it’s been in that area in 26 years. They still are going through attic outbreaks. I couldn’t imagine driving through extreme temperatures like that. I believe it’s something with the programming along with the cold. Some models are suggesting that Florida will be colder than North Dakota Friday morning..

Seems like we have every ingredient but moisture and I see what the models say but it just doesn’t digest well with me.


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Incredible seeing all the snow when many parts of Alaska just dealt with flooding rains not too long ago. 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't want to jinx us too much, but yeah....far better than normal.  The 12z ensembles are trying to pull off a really stellar pattern for later winter...EPO/PNA w/ blocking over the top.  If that verifies, folks better hang on to their butts.  It could get wild.  I am still concerned (because I like my pipes) that it is very likely we trap a portion of the TPV and send it south.  That mechanism is present on modeling for at least the next 16 days and another window in Feb.  

Air like that definitely makes the roads in these parts come apart once the thaw starts. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the 12z EPS which can have a warm bias.  First image is the d10-15 blend.  NAO block, EPO ridge, AN heights over Alaska, trough east of Hawaii.  That is a storm signal - Miller B or A or both.

 

Below is the temp map for d10-15.  Remember, if you want big winter storms, you have to be wiling to ride the boundary on an west to east gradient.

 

Below is a single day snapshot so as not to wash out how cold it may get.  This is January and below normal temps in January are cold.  See the gradient?

 

Single image at the end of the EPS.

 

This is the 18z GFS at 288.  This is generally what I think we are going to see occur.  The pattern over the top supports it, and the MJO probably does as well.   Blocking in the NAO, AO, and EPO/Alaska regions.  This creates a gradient pattern, and that is my 1b "go to" pattern.  1a is an inland runner.   I do think we see yet another ridge roll through after this....wash...rinse...repeat through February.  But see how the cold descends into the Canadian Prairie.  That is generally a good spot for us.  

[Carvers Gap]

And we are still in a retrograding pattern at 500.  Just watch the ridge.  Every time a trough comes through, it pops back up further west.  The EPO looks like it wants to hold, but when it gets pushed out....up goes the SER and then it retrogrades.

Weeklies update for today....see the comment I just made.  Seasonal to BN temps as base pattern but with warmth(some very warm days) embedded w/ those ridges.  Retrograding ridges and troughs.  I think we eventually see the TPV get trapped(have I said that prior?) under HL blocking.  That is when the real fun and games might begin. 

[Matthew70]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And we are still in a retrograding pattern at 500.  Just watch the ridge.  Every time a trough comes through, it pops back up further west.  The EPO looks like it wants to hold, but when it gets pushed out....up goes the SER and then it retrogrades.

Weeklies update for today....see the comment I just made.  Seasonal to BN temps as base pattern but with warmth(some very warm days) embedded w/ those ridges.  Retrograding ridges and troughs.  I think we eventually see the TPV get trapped(have I said that prior?) under HL blocking.  That is when the real fun and games might begin. 

I do have a question.  You have mentioned the wave lengths get shorter in February?  If I remember correctly?  What does that refer to or mean?