January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[John1122]

We just need the vort to wrap over West Tennessee vs East Tennessee. The Canadian and GFS do it there, the Euro isn't as wound up and brings it further East. The Euro Ai is closer to the Canadian/GFS than the OP Euro.

[John1122]

At the end of its run, the RGEM looked like it was going to wind up similar to the GFS/Canadian.

[Carvers Gap]

Any GoogleAI updates for 12z and/or trends?

[John1122]

The 12z Weather Next should be out in a few minutes.

[John1122]

Weather Next is delayed for some reason.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like Google Weathernext v2.78665  pretty well held with the upper low bringing snow, but that's about it. 

[Vol4Life]

Weather Next 12z run pulled from another forum:

[Vol4Life]

Just now, Vol4Life said:

Weather Next 12z run pulled from another forum:

With. 20:1 ratio, that’s likely a 2-4+ for ETN with amounts increasing for NETN

[John1122]

It was ever so slight, but the Weather Next moved the precip slightly west and slightly more for most of East Tn vs 06z. So a small step in the right direction.

[John1122]

It's crazy to see snow dumping over the gulf stream off the South Carolina coast. But here we are where it snows heavily over warm ocean areas but avoids it at all costs for East Tennessee.

[fountainguy97]

14 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

With. 20:1 ratio, that’s likely a 2-4+ for ETN with amounts increasing for NETN

Will be interesting to see what the High-res models do with the ULL moisture as they get into range. Even without the bomb Eastern areas may actually have a shot at the biggest snow of the year.

[John1122]

From that Weather Next run, ratio'd since temps are in the single digits and low teens and the entire column looks like a North Dakota snow sounding, I'd say 1 to 1.5 inches around Cookeville, 1.5-3 inches along the Plateau west to East, 1.5-4 along the central valley of East Tn, 3-6 for NE Tennessee/mountains.

[tjgrogan]

Maybe the low will track in a favorable direction for East Tennessee.

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Will be interesting to see what the High-res models do with the ULL moisture as they get into range. Even without the bomb Eastern areas may actually have a shot at the biggest snow of the year.

After what seems like a train of downslope events, i'm sure most in our area would sign up for a 2-4" snow, especially if we don't have to use that term.......

[John1122]

13 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

After what seems like a train of downslope events, i'm sure most in our area would sign up for a 2-4" snow, especially if we don't have to use that term.......

If I can get 2 inches from this, I'll be happy at this point. The Euro being a complete whiffer is a sadly decent chance to happen too.

[GBOVolz]

New weather model/ data site:
https://aguacerowx.com/app/
 
 

That’s the one I use. Very handy


.

[GBOVolz]

These guys do a good job. Nice write up here for the weekend
To summarize… they are on board with a faster phase and a more western track

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/2016246272013832596?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


.

[GBOVolz]

These guys do a good job. Nice write up here for the weekend
To summarize… they are on board with a faster phase and a more western track

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/2016246272013832596?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


.

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/2016247539130138969?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


.

[John1122]

18z NAM looks kinda blah at the end. Flat with the vort at 84 vs it wrapping up on the 12z gfs at 90.  Probably wasn't going to get much done here. 

[John1122]

The ICON may be trying with the vort. It looks slightly better than 12z through 84. 

[Jed33]

The 18z rgem was something else! Too bad it doesn’t go beyond 84hrs!

[Reb]

1 minute ago, Jed33 said:

The 18z rgem was something else! Too bad it doesn’t go beyond 84hrs!

That’s exactly what we need to happen

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, Jed33 said:

The 18z rgem was something else! Too bad it doesn’t go beyond 84hrs!

Man, you aren’t kidding.  Looked very similar to GFS at 12Z

[Vol4Life]

Another solid run of GFS at 18z.  More of the state has accumulatation. Around 6” at TYS and increases as you head E/NE.

[tnweathernut]

Why does the GFS has to be a continual tease for east and especially northeast TN?  I've have 40+ inches of modeled snow from that wretched model and only have 1/2" that melted away to show for it..  lol

[Vol4Life]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

Why does the GFS has to be a continual tease for east and especially northeast TN?  I've have 40+ inches of modeled snow from that wretched model and only have 1/2" that melted away to show for it..  lol

Was it just me or did the low pressure off the coast of NC hug the coast more?  If that shifts to just inland, then that should help back flow into ETN?

[GBOVolz]

Last 4 GFS ratioed runs. Just showing the trend, not the results.










.

18z added. Holding steady but don’t hold your breath.




And AI that’s 10/1 so it should be right there with the OG around 8”





.

[tnweathernut]

5 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Was it just me or did the low pressure off the coast of NC hug the coast more?  If that shifts to just inland, then that should help back flow into ETN?

I think what we're hoping for is a lee-side low developing in response to the upper-level energy moving through. If the surface low tucks closer to the coast, it could indicate slower progression of the overall system due to the upper dynamics, which would give more time for precipitation to wrap around and develop over the eastern parts of TN

[GBOVolz]

What is the GEFS “hybrid” ?
10/1





.

[fountainguy97]

If the GFS misses this storm again (it likely will) like last week it should be shut down. The power it uses would be better used elsewhere. How has the American flagship model gotten so obsolete? It's truly embarrassing.