January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

[Wurbus]

Canadian has it as well about a day later

[Carvers Gap]

Evidently, we need to talk about Feb 15 a bit more?  12z GFS...

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC evidently is gonna take more than one swing.  This is the gradient pattern that we have seen teased by modeling.  Slider city if it can hold.

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, man, the GEM says, "Hold my beer, GFS."

[Wurbus]

Early Friday Happy Hour!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'd gladly sacrifice any of the nearer stuff we've been looking at for that, but AI Euro says too much disconnect between the northern and southern jets and sadly that fits the antecedent pattern 

GFS pulls the eastern Pac critter into the flow for that run:

 

 

Euro AI has that quasi tropical critter get absorbed into a larger eastern Pac upper low:

[Carvers Gap]

Man, I hate when models flirt with over-running patterns.  Tough pattern to nail down(productive if you can hit jackpot), but both the GEM and GEFS have put that clearly on the table at 12z.

[*Flash*]

I mentioned last night how Bobby Boyd had his eye on 1/25. The GFS/GEM looks above lines up with what could be a time frame to watch. A trap? Most likely but for now...we have something new to track, watch disappear and perhaps re-emerge again. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, man, the GEM says, "Hold my beer, GFS."

I think the GFS took the CMCs beer, chugged it, and grabbed another. 

[Carvers Gap]

This is the tricky part.  The ticket is going to be getting a hp over the top of th STJ and not a low in the GLs....and then modeling accurately portraying the gradient.  Both the GFS and GEM now have at least one system(possibly two) within 7 days.  The GFS seems to hint there is more after that.  Time will tell if either are correct.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The good thing about this is that if anything like what the GFS shows happens, it looks like it will have more southern stream involvement instead of the vort. whisps from the north pole where we have to send hurricane hunters to dropsonde the Pac and Atlantic to set the atmospheric goalposts for the vort to ride. 

[*Flash*]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The good thing about this is that if anything like what the GFS shows happens, it looks like it will have more southern stream involvement instead of the vort. whisps from the north pole where we have to send hurricane hunters to dropsonde the Pac and Atlantic to set the atmospheric goalposts for the vort to ride. 

I was about to say: If we can’t have synced southern juice, more spiked southern juice might work. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I mentioned last night how Bobby Boyd had his eye on 1/25. The GFS/GEM looks above lines up with what could be a time frame to watch. A trap? Most likely but for now...we have something new to track, watch disappear and perhaps re-emerge again. 

Models have really highlighted the 25th as another timeframe for amplification...or even a day or two just after.  I am a little surprised to see things light up before the 25th here at 12z.  Maybe modeling underestimated the cold as the "ridge" rolls through.  IDK.  It is telling that folks were saying their lows were bottoming out below forecast lows.  That could just be clear and calm nights...but it could also mean modeling is underestimating cold air masses.  

[TellicoWx]

Icon was trying to get there as well.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

ideal:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

well, not for Chatt, sorry 

[Carvers Gap]

I would classify that as an over-running pattern....but they are tricky, tricky, tricky to nail down as the key is where the west-east gradient sets up.  We might want that gradient a bit more south than what is portrayed.  The 12z GFS 10:1 clown map on WxBell is crazy.

[Matthew70]

So the HOT sign is on.  Is this where all the donuts are gone already? Lol.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

ideal:

Can't be right.  NC gets walloped.  It doesn't snow there anymore.  lol

On topic, I was beat to the punch by Holston discussing the differences at 500.  That's the big difference...........

[TellicoWx]

As @John1122posted yesterday...Euro AI is wavering with this type event (just further out) on and off last few runs. Boot the low in the GL, turn of the STJ, and let climo let the chips fall lol

[Carvers Gap]

This is basically the same look by the GFS and GEM....this is the look you want at 500.  Big, cold high sitting over the top w/ a little bit ridging just to our east.  The 12z GFS does this multiple times.  The GEM looked like it was set to do the same.  

[*Flash*]

13 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

So the HOT sign is on.  Is this where all the donuts are gone already? Lol.

Donuts are gone but we have fresh hopium on the menu. 

[tnweathernut]

I have been in agreement with @Carvers Gap for the last 10 days or so.  This is a progression that should work out for the southeast/deep south.  The changing puzzle pieces are evident in the snow projected to our south and east over the next few days, and also potentially scattered through out parts of TN tonight into tomorrow morning.  Looking at the longer range evolution at 500 on the GFS and Canadian........... it's a really good one that should throw a winter chance or two from here to the Ohio Valley.  I just hope it's the former and not the latter when the pieces come into view and get under the 3-4 day range.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro......................fire.

[Wurbus]

round 2 incoming.....

[Carvers Gap]

Man....not sure if the headline from the 12z Euro is cold or snow or ice.  If there is severe in there somewhere....it has pretty much everything.

[Jed33]

I guess I should go out of town more often! We’re on the way to Banff and Lake Louise for some skiing. Those 12z runs are coming in hot! Er uh Cold and snowy!  If this pattern doesn’t produce something I don’t know what it’ll take. Big caution is the drought situation and the moisture content of systems underperforming, but hopefully the STJ is indeed waking up and will give us a much needed shot of moisture.

[tnweathernut]

Two possibilities. Cold high, followed by cold high, followed by cold high.......... and a clipper possibility to boot.  Really nice Euro run, but more importantly it matches well with the GFS and Canadian for something right around a week away.  Need to see some consistency over the next few days (which has been like pulling teeth to get) to gain confidence in any excitement.  

[Carvers Gap]

I sure hope this is because we are getting better data.  The beginning of this window is still about 7 days out...but this trough amplification looks like it means business.  The AIFS EURO is less enthused, but still has some interesting events d10-15.  The good thing is that models "might be" recognizing the MJO window that is seen on CPC along w/ the climatology of recent years which is to send severe cold into the nation's mid-section during La Nina during late January.  I doubt it is this extreme but 40 degree departures below normal during our two coldest weeks of the year.....