Holston_River_Rambler Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Interesting wrt the NAM vs RGEM. Usually seems like in the 40-60 hour range the NAM will be warm nosing any and all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago One thing I’ll add too, just based on current wx obs. How much of this stuff on radar right now is virga? IMBY I’d say 75% of radar returns have been virga or much lighter than they appeared to be. May be something to keep in mind with what the NAM is showing for later in the week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago The low in the Lakes is the problem. It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The low in the Lakes is the problem. It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up? One thing I’ve noticed is that as much as I’ve watched these vort loops lately, those vorts near the lakes are not messing around. They’re moving substantially faster than stuff that gets strung out further south. Here today on a run, maybe gone tomorrow. One thing that might have to be watched with some of these runs that trail vorticity back towards the high plains and front range, is some mischief if one gets hung up for a bit while the more northerly parts of the shortwave move along. that could go either way of course: it outruns the cold or gets just enough space to amplify at the right time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 18z NAM would be great for west/middle TN especially north of 40, but with so many outcomes on the table, I'm not sure where to lean right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Gfs doing the old double down happy hour for Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Interesting wrt the NAM vs RGEM. Usually seems like in the 40-60 hour range the NAM will be warm nosing any and all. As far as the RGEM, it still shows 4-6" in Harlan and Bell Counties in SEKY. Oddly, that drops to around 3" in Lee and Wise Counties. 850's look fine overall for the aforementioned area's. Nam 3k looks pretty Jacked for these Area's. Looks a bit worrisome a bit further South. Model's have been all over the Place with the Setup so, right now, even at this close Range, we just don't know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago It would be wild to be significantly trailing the Florida/Alabama Gulf Coast in snowfall two winters in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 27 minutes ago, John1122 said: It would be wild to be significantly trailing the Florida/Alabama Gulf Coast in snowfall two winters in a row. That is a potential horror movie waiting to be written. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago With the temp issues in ETn but not so much in west or east of here, makes me think the mods are about to sniff out a handoff or energy transfer. Seems like when we get odd looking thermals up the valley, it’s a precursor to a low popping off the coast of SC. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 25 minutes ago, John1122 said: It would be wild to be significantly trailing the Florida/Alabama Gulf Coast in snowfall two winters in a row. Yeah really. I remember some Winters where south of us wound up with more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago We are very unique in the fact we are usually too far north, south, east or west. Lol! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Let's hope no data collection is done through the Verizon path. I doubt it, but certainly if models go haywire....we know. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housemtnTN Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Got sleet/freezing rain and strong winds in Mascot. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Sure looks to me like the 18z GEFS ensemble members ticked NW. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 18z GEFS left. 12z right. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Yes, the mean is well west and into the E TN valley. No idea if it can get this far, but you can see the jog. You asked if this could jog northwest. I do believe the trough could verify north of where it is show currently. If so, this shifts the track. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Yes, the mean is well west and into the E TN valley. No idea if it can get this far, but you can see the jog. You asked if this could jog northwest. I do believe the trough could verify north of where it is show currently. If so, this shifts the track.0Z will be worth staying up for imo.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Scottie16 said: 0Z will be worth staying up for imo. . I still think it is a very long shot. However, where we are seeing some of these systems rain instead of snow...tells me that modeling is over doing the cold and there is room for this to come north. However, these Gulf snows verify more often than I care to enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I probably won't roll back in here until 12z. I might catch the 0z GFS run....if I am feeling remarkably good. Haha. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The low in the Lakes is the problem. It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up? Yep...I got to excited early in week and forgot one of the biggest rules for south of 40. GL low = no Bueno 99% of the time (outside mtns/plateau), messes with thermals just enough ahead of any week vort spinning around it. So not really enthusiastic about weekend either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 50 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: 0Z will be worth staying up for imo. . Who knew the secret to enjoying winter is to have a beach house on the panhandle that you can visit in July as well as January. Smh. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Who knew the secret to enjoying winter is to have a beach house on the panhandle that you can visit in July as well as January. Smh. If you get a timeshare on 30A, better make sure it comes with a snow shovel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ha! My parents have one on Okaloosa island! Ft. Walton area. Kicking myself for not going down last year! To add to that post. They didn’t have any means to deal with it other than sand and a few good ole boys. The thing was where it fell on the sand, it took forever to melt! Now on the roads it melted on its on. Never would have guessed it. They didn’t have anything to compare it with, but it lasted a week on the beach in places especially flat areas slightly sloped back from the direct angle of the sun. Just completely unheard of! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 36 minutes ago Author Share Posted 36 minutes ago The 0z NAMs are similar to 18z with precip, but they were also warmer. Rain across our area but snow on the Gulf coast would be the ultimate weather slap in the face. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted 21 minutes ago Share Posted 21 minutes ago HRRR/0z NAM Fri/Sat s/w…I have no choice but to root for thermal compliance and more juice. I’ll take an appetizer inch at this point. Would feel better if I lived in central KY. Will be interesting to see how each wave affects the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted 10 minutes ago Share Posted 10 minutes ago RGEM coming in with rain, that's probably a wrap on this event. Believe East TN totally still in the game for Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 10 minutes ago Author Share Posted 10 minutes ago 0z RGem is a rainer under probably 1800/2000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintryMixmaster Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago Why is it that the NAM is so much colder than the other models for Friday night? It makes sense that the Great Lakes low would fail to provide east TN with enough cold air for snow, but that feature seems to be in a similar position with a similar strength on the NAM and RRFS/RGEM. Is the NAM just wrong? Does the NAM think heavier precipitation rates are dropping surface temperatures enough for snow for I-40 and north? Does the NAM just have the shortwave digging slightly more? Like Holston_River_Rambler mentioned earlier, I feel like the NAM (especially the high res NAM) seems to be the best at picking up TN valley warm noses, it's strange how it's the cold outlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago 3K NAM appears to be headed towards a rain but timing works out and trys to salvage something. here's what it shows at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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