January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Interesting wrt the NAM vs RGEM. Usually seems like in the 40-60 hour range the NAM will be warm nosing any and all. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing I’ll add too, just based on current wx obs. How much of this stuff on radar right now is virga? IMBY I’d say 75% of radar returns have been virga or much lighter than they appeared to be. May be something to keep in mind with what the NAM is showing for later in the week 

[Carvers Gap]

The low in the Lakes is the problem.  It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The low in the Lakes is the problem.  It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up?

One thing I’ve noticed is that as much as I’ve watched these vort loops lately, those vorts near the lakes are not messing around. They’re moving substantially faster than stuff that gets strung out further south. Here today on a run, maybe gone tomorrow.
 

One thing that might have to be watched with some of these runs that trail vorticity back towards the high plains and front range, is some mischief if one gets hung up for a bit while the more northerly parts of the shortwave move along. 
 

that could go either way of course: it outruns the cold or gets just enough space to amplify at the right time. 

[*Flash*]

18z NAM would be great for west/middle TN especially north of 40, but with so many outcomes on the table, I'm not sure where to lean right now. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Gfs doing the old double down happy hour for Sunday. 

[Daniel Boone]

25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Interesting wrt the NAM vs RGEM. Usually seems like in the 40-60 hour range the NAM will be warm nosing any and all. 

As far as the RGEM, it still shows 4-6" in Harlan and Bell Counties in SEKY. Oddly, that drops to around 3" in Lee and Wise Counties. 850's look fine overall for the aforementioned area's. Nam 3k looks pretty Jacked for these Area's. Looks a bit worrisome a bit further South. 

 Model's have been all over the Place with the Setup so, right now, even at this close Range, we just don't know. 

[John1122]

It would be wild to be significantly trailing the Florida/Alabama Gulf Coast in snowfall two winters in a row. 

[*Flash*]

27 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It would be wild to be significantly trailing the Florida/Alabama Gulf Coast in snowfall two winters in a row. 

That is a potential horror movie waiting to be written. 

[GBOVolz]

With the temp issues in ETn but not so much in west or east of here, makes me think the mods are about to sniff out a handoff or energy transfer. Seems like when we get odd looking thermals up the valley, it’s a precursor to a low popping off the coast of SC.


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[Daniel Boone]

25 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It would be wild to be significantly trailing the Florida/Alabama Gulf Coast in snowfall two winters in a row. 

Yeah really. I remember some Winters where south of us wound up with more. 

[Vol4Life]

We are very unique in the fact we are usually too far north, south, east or west. Lol!

[Carvers Gap]

Let's hope no data collection is done through the Verizon path.  I doubt it, but certainly if models go haywire....we know.  

[housemtnTN]

Got sleet/freezing rain and strong winds in Mascot.

[Carvers Gap]

Sure looks to me like the 18z GEFS ensemble members ticked NW.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GEFS left.  12z right.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Yes, the mean is well west and into the E TN valley.  No idea if it can get this far, but you can see the jog.  You asked if this could jog northwest.  I do believe the trough could verify north of where it is show currently.  If so, this shifts the track.

[Scottie16]

Yes, the mean is well west and into the E TN valley.  No idea if it can get this far, but you can see the jog.  You asked if this could jog northwest.  I do believe the trough could verify north of where it is show currently.  If so, this shifts the track.

0Z will be worth staying up for imo.


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[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Scottie16 said:

0Z will be worth staying up for imo.


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I still think it is a very long shot.  However, where we are seeing some of these systems rain instead of snow...tells me that modeling is over doing the cold and there is room for this to come north.  However, these Gulf snows verify more often than I care to enjoy.

[Carvers Gap]

I probably won't roll back in here until 12z.  I might catch the 0z GFS run....if I am feeling remarkably good.  Haha.

[TellicoWx]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The low in the Lakes is the problem.  It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up?

Yep...I got to excited early in week and forgot one of the biggest rules for south of 40. GL low = no Bueno 99% of the time (outside mtns/plateau), messes with thermals just enough ahead of any week vort spinning around it. So not really enthusiastic about weekend either. 

[*Flash*]

50 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

0Z will be worth staying up for imo.


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Who knew the secret to enjoying winter is to have a beach house on the panhandle that you can visit in July as well as January. Smh.

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Who knew the secret to enjoying winter is to have a beach house on the panhandle that you can visit in July as well as January. Smh.

If you get a timeshare on 30A, better make sure it comes with a snow shovel.

[Jed33]

Ha! My parents have one on Okaloosa island! Ft. Walton area. Kicking myself for not going down last year!

To add to that post. They didn’t have any means to deal with it other than sand and a few good ole boys. The thing was where it fell on the sand, it took forever to melt! Now on the roads it melted on its on. Never would have guessed it. They didn’t have anything to compare it with, but it lasted a week on the beach in places especially flat areas slightly sloped back from the direct angle of the sun. Just completely unheard of!