January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

1). The 12z Euro appears to have some chances as well w/ multiple vortices and energy climbing the EC.  That pattern is loaded w/ chances every few days.  

2) If you watch the end of that run, the western ridge rotates rapidly west through the Aleutians.  It moves so rapidly, it might well allow the EPO to rebuild. If you look at the end of the GFS run, it sticks a trough out West.  But the ridge in the Aleutians moves so quickly that you can almost see the ridge sliding underneath the western trough, ie the eastern trough is already retrograding.  

3) I don't lose a ton of sleep at this time of year.  What I "think" is going to happen is part of the TPV is going to crash through central Canada and almost force a trough to stick in the center of the continent vs out West.  The SER will fight it, but cold will push against it as it pinwheels around that trough IMHO.  I think the 12z AI GFS is the extreme eastward version of that look.  I think the Euro is about right...I might nudge it a bit west - speaking of 300hrs +.

4) Again, I remain optimistic that the Jan11-21st time frame is a good one for wintry weather.  Then, we get a TBD break(could be quick).  Then we repeat the same cycle.  Again....One variation(instead of a western trough) I think has some merit is the 500 TPV rotates int0 central Canada on its throne, and makes everything work around it.   Very blocky looking pattern.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Good looking moisture connection for this Friday/ Saturday system

 

[Jed33]

That is good. We really need the rain! Seems like qpf has trended upward and that’s a great thing!

[Weatheriscool]

29 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Good looking moisture connection for this Friday/ Saturday system

 

That would be great! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

23 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

That is good. We really need the rain! Seems like qpf has trended upward and that’s a great thing!

hey we even have a slight risk for excessive rain for Friday through Saturday AM 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NBM is about the same as the WPC

 

 

[Weatheriscool]

17 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NBM is about the same as the WPC

 

 

That would really be nice to have about 12 hours or so of steady rainfall

[Jed33]

We have seen system after system fail to produce the modeled rainfall this Fall and Winter so far. Some, like the last one, just completely dried up as it got to us. This one feels and looks different though, so hopefully it’s the beginning of a change for us. As has been said, La Nina can be tough for our area to get precip at times, and I think that’s what we’ve been seeing. It looks like the Nina has met its demise now though, Hopefully!

[Carvers Gap]

The interesting thing about La Nina...there are a few analogs which aren't dry during winter.  I think @John1122 has posted those thoughts prior.  In fact, they can produce flooding rains at times.  I don't think we are out of La Nina quite yet. 

That said...there was worry about Canada losing its cold.  The 12z Euro(yes, it is at the end of its run, but has support from its ensemble and across some other models) had this at the end of its run.  

Let's see if the 12z CFSv2 can get on a run.  If flipped cold for Jan 21-31.  I probably is a blip, but the image below kind of fits where  I think we are going.  The coldest air is going to push into the Canadian Prairie and refuse to budge.  I am sure the West will get its fair share...but one good cutter, and any warm-up would go poof!  This also fits exactly what LC's analogs have shown for late winter.  Can you imagine what the Lower 48 would look like w/ a strong amplification in either of the blocking areas would produce?  

The SER will fight, but w/ that air mass as a plausible option...we may need a little SER.

[Carvers Gap]

Great discussion in here this afternoon.  I enjoyed reading all of that - even if it isn't all snow!

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS continues the trend of bringing light snow to the region around Jan 15.  Miraculously, a huge NAO is in place.

[Carvers Gap]

Haha.  That is just an insane HL blocking run by the 18z GFS.  It is either the beginning of a trend(and I have seen more NAO recently on modeling in this time frame) or this is a toss.  It is a beautiful pattern, but for sure an outlier.

[Carvers Gap]

An outlier the 18z GFS may be...it is about to send it.

[Carvers Gap]

We got JB talking about a d15 warmup.  Meanwhile, this GFS run is going to have it snowing in Cuba.

[Carvers Gap]

After 200, the juiced STJ is firing right into an inbound Arctic air mass.

[Carvers Gap]

Basically, the 18z GFS traps a piece of the TPV under HL blocking.  It just sits and spins while locked over central Canada.  This is what ensembles might not be able to see.  It kind of looks like LR ensembles w/ a SER.  But...that SER is minor as it is getting lifted into place by the strong BN heights over Canada.  The HUGE plus on this run....storm track is right over our forum area w/ repetitive winter events.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS and AI GEFS are AIFS Euro are COLD in the window that we need them to be.  Keep the STJ cranked, and let's roll. 

[Golf757075]

Carver, the key imo, for winter to get rocking is the mjo progression. Very important imo. 

[Matthew70]

Definitely strange weather here.  We’re supposed to have again tonight mist and fog developing.  We had it last night and it was cloudy till about noon.  The fog is already developing.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z AI EPS.  Some big dogs in there.  Two separate storms.   Windows are 14-15th and the 20th.

 

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, Golf757075 said:

Carver, the key imo, for winter to get rocking is the mjo progression. Very important imo. 

With a -NAO & -AO & a +PNA that can override the MJO especially if it’s in low amp.  Along with a -EPO.  I’ll take my chances with that.  MJO in phase 6-8 would be a cherry on top.  If I’m right Jax or GaWx about the MJO?

[*Flash*]

5 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

With a -NAO & -AO & a +PNA that can override the MJO especially if it’s in low amp.  Along with a -EPO.  I’ll take my chances with that.  MJO in phase 6-8 would be a cherry on top.  If I’m right Jax or GaWx about the MJO?

Agreed. MJO phase and strength matters, but ePac anomaly placements, polar strat evolution, arctic blocking…they all have a say too.  Right now, my concern is not in winter feeling like winter rest of the month…but rather if we'll get future troughs to dig deep and sync with the STJ. The emergence of fantasy “big dogs” gives me some hope.

[nrgjeff]

Severe then snow. Book it!

(Well mainly I-40 and north)

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS.  That'll work.  So will the 0z.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 6z GFS.  That'll work.  So will the 0z.

That lp track is the stuff drams are made of in east TN and the southern Apps. 

 

Just a tinge more cold air at that run.....

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro is close but out to sea. 

Man I hope the GFS is on to something and it isn't just more feedback. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Nice symmetry in the west Pac this am and it looksl ike it is having an impact where we want it. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z ICON was like watching 10 episodes of a show, finally getting to where you think you know what is gonna happen, and then you gotta wait 18 months for the answer.  That baby was set to rock.... How many ways can a storm phase, three?  That was like a quadruple phaser.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z AIGFS is pretty much a Feb 2015 redux.  Nickel and dimes lined up.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is off the rails....at 200 it managed to send a storm from West Yellowstone, Montana, to San Francisco, California.  I kid you not.  Just look at the surface maps, the 500 sort maps, or the 500 anomaly map.  Insanity.  I mean could it happen?  I guess.  Is it likely.  Nope.  Toss the entire run.

But let's play "I'll take the ICON at 180 hours for $200"....it manages to phase the bottom three x's and was on its way to the fourth(northerly).