January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Kentucky]

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Good update, Holston. I could be overly optimistic but it wouldn't surprise me if January fun 'n games continues into the first half of February. We've finally killed the heat dome in our state. Waking up to 20s never felt so good!

On a separate note, I can't upload any media over 3.7 kb on this forum which essentially defeats the purpose. I'm not sure why my issues are confined to this site only. Anyone else having that problem? I'll see if I can clear some things to fix the issue. Not super tech savvy.

Some kind of weird restriction here on AmericanWX seems they give each user so much storage and it's not a lot at all. Believe most on here embed@Carvers Gap@Holston_River_Rambler among others can probably point you in the write direction.

Congratulations on the new addition btw 

[Weatheriscool]

9 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

To an extent this is true,but besides a NAO the first step is a good PNA in our parts , really some deception to East Tn to the West.TN,mountains im sure causes part of this,while the east wants to see a more stronger -NAO,it dont work like that from the close to the Cumberland to West it just leads with us with cold dry with  cutters,compared to the east,we really live in a weird climo in Tn in winter,its really unusual to see the state wide snowfall at the sane time

I would be happy with moisture on a regular basis whatever the temps end up being, we are still really really dry here in Sumner County 

[Daniel Boone]

10 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

To an extent this is true,but besides a NAO the first step is a good PNA in our parts , really some deception to East Tn to the West.TN,mountains im sure causes part of this,while the east wants to see a more stronger -NAO,it dont work like that from the close to the Cumberland to West it just leads with us with cold dry with  cutters,compared to the east,we really live in a weird climo in Tn in winter,its really unusual to see the state wide snowfall at the sane time

Oh, I know that . I was referring to how the block retrogades and other effects of it along with the AK Vort.. Yeah, a tall PNA Ridge is tops in my opinion, really for the whole area , in general. 

[Daniel Boone]

44 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

I would be happy with moisture on a regular basis whatever the temps end up being, we are still really really dry here in Sumner County 

It is getting that way here. About half the Average Rainfall for December.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

On a separate note, I can't upload any media over 3.7 kb on this forum which essentially defeats the purpose. I'm not sure why my issues are confined to this site only. Anyone else having that problem? I'll see if I can clear some things to fix the issue. Not super tech savvy.

I made a throw away account on imgur and will either screen shot static images or save to my desktop gifs generated by a site like tropical tidbits. 

You just have to drag and drop the saved gif (.gif) or image (I think it has to be a .png or .jpg) to the box on imgur. Then you click "copy image address":

 

 

Then you just paste that link directly into the text box here and hit the "enter" or "return." It should automatically populate the image or gif at that point. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Weatheriscool]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

It is getting that way here. About half the Average Rainfall for December.

Yea, it has been a really strange last 8 months or so. It was really wet here in the Middle TN area in the Spring up until about June, then it literally stopped. It did the same thing it is doing now, about every ten days we would get a strong line of storms and it rains some but then nothing for another two weeks. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Good update, Holston. I could be overly optimistic but it wouldn't surprise me if January fun 'n games continues into the first half of February. We've finally killed the heat dome in our state. Waking up to 20s never felt so good!

On a separate note, I can't upload any media over 3.7 kb on this forum which essentially defeats the purpose. I'm not sure why my issues are confined to this site only. Anyone else having that problem? I'll see if I can clear some things to fix the issue. Not super tech savvy.

Yeah, same here. Mentioned it couple pages back and Carver's and John told how to get around the problem. 

[Daniel Boone]

A few light flurries here this Morning.

[Carvers Gap]

I thought the 12z GFS was close with two storms on Jan 7 and Jan 11.  Sure enough, the 12z CMC which doesn’t have a progressive bias…brought it.   Good look. Big storm.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC has the EPO in place by Jan 6 with a nice pattern in place by the 8th - eastern trough.

[Carvers Gap]

It is quiet in here to have such a good 12z suite.  The 12z Euro looked loaded.  Very nice run with plenty of chances and actual snow embedded in the run.

[Carvers Gap]

5 day mean for the deterministic 12z Euro...~d6-11.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z AIFS Euro has three storms back-to-back-to-back.  Easily the best suite of the year in terms of just synoptical setup.

[Carvers Gap]

Also, ensembles are starting to honk that an Alaskan block is setting up.  Now that....that would deliver cold.

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Good update, Holston. I could be overly optimistic but it wouldn't surprise me if January fun 'n games continues into the first half of February. We've finally killed the heat dome in our state. Waking up to 20s never felt so good!

On a separate note, I can't upload any media over 3.7 kb on this forum which essentially defeats the purpose. I'm not sure why my issues are confined to this site only. Anyone else having that problem? I'll see if I can clear some things to fix the issue. Not super tech savvy.

I use photobucket.  @John1122mentioned a service he uses as well.  I use photo bucket.  I just upload the photo, and then grab a hosting link for it.  Some hosting sites are free and some are maybe five bucks a month.

[John1122]

I was coming to say that the Euro/GEM/EuroAi all have some wintery threats loaded. No monsters but active potential once the Pacific locks in. The GFS, which could be right, is on an island. It's verified horribly here and in the Pac NW over the last 90 days. Way too cold there, way too warm here.

[John1122]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I use photobucket.  @John1122metnioned a service he uses as well.  I use photo bucket.  I just upload the photo, and then grab a hosting link for it.  Some hosting sites are free and some are maybe five bucks a month.

I use freeimage.host. Just add the image you want, once it's uploaded, click on it, then open the image only in a new tab, copy that link and paste it here.

[John1122]

If we can actually get to the progression shown on the Euro/EuroAi regarding blocking, virtually every time we have seen that pattern, it's produced a snow/winter precip event, or multiples of them.

[Carvers Gap]

That is a really good run of the Euro Weeklies(which are now dailies!).  Ridge out west w/ it bridging across to Greenland.  This is generally supported by some of the colder analogs.  This pretty much holds throughout the run.  Now, I have been doing this for a while....it likely won't hold for 6 weeks.  The weeklies kind of just roll with week one and don't really move from that pattern sometimes. As @John1122notes, that storm track is a good one if it verifies.  

A word of caution:  There has been no more fickle beast in wx modeling than LR modeling this winter.  I wouldn't develop a long term attachment!!!  

I have 2x30day chunks at 500 posted.  I mainly have done that, because each kind of tells a different story - both good for winter in the Tennessee Valley.  

I add two control images - you know I like the control.  The temps map I think is a little bit less washed out, and it gets cold on that control run!  The snow map is very similar to the ensemble, and that is likely a good sign.  It is basically snow climatology, but I will take average vs none.  But it gives us a good idea of the storm tracks possible - sliders, cutters, and inland runners.

 

And if you need something to be concerned about if you like snow...I have that for you as well.  Now, the good thing is that BN precip prob means it has been cold.  I definitely am in the school of thought that we do a lot better when cold is in place.  So, there is good and bad with this map.  I don't have to explain the bad.

[Carvers Gap]

I think the dry conditions(outright drought) in some areas of the forum is worth a continuing discussion.  The southern edge of our forum is really dry as is west Tenn/eastern Arkansas.  The southern Apps, as is typical w/ La Nina, are BN for rainfall.  MBY is normal which has not been a usual occurrence of late.  Thankfully, I think as we trend towards El Nino this summer....we will see a normal summer for temps, rain, and a reduced risk for endless summer next fall.  If El Nino takes hold early enough, we could see cooler than normal temps later in spring.

[Weatheriscool]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think the dry conditions(outright drought) in some areas of the forum is worth a continuing discussion.  The southern edge of our forum is really dry as is west Tenn/eastern Arkansas.  The southern Apps, as is typical w/ La Nina, are BN for rainfall.  MBY is normal which has not been a usual occurrence of late.  Thankfully, I think as we trend towards El Nino this summer....we will see a normal summer for temps, rain, and a reduced risk for endless summer next fall.  If El Nino takes hold early enough, we could see cooler than normal temps later in spring.

Yes as already mentioned, in my area, we are still really really dry 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS definitely trying to get in on the action.  It has a storm which cuts into the forum area, but still manages to stay south.  The good thing?  It is the GFS at 10 days.  The great thing?  Good storm track.

[housemtnTN]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS definitely trying to get in on the action.  It has a storm which cuts into the forum area, but still manages to stay south.  The good thing?  It is the GFS at 10 days.  The great thing?  Good storm track.

I was just checking that out and am cautiously optimistic!

[Carvers Gap]

Kind of a minor event possible on NYD from the Plateau into SE KY, SW VA, and border areas of NE TN.  Maybe we can cook something up per the 18z RGEM.  I don't think anything more than a dusting or snow showers, but we have seen these trend south at the very last minute - as in the radar is the only thing that verified this far south.

[Carvers Gap]

I also think the 8th is starting to be a trackable window.  No guarantees, but it is showing up across modeling and at 500 on ensembles.  With the NAO block likely in place, it is certainly a realistic option.

[Carvers Gap]

Man, the GEFS ensemble and deterministic after d8 are waaaaay out there on an island.  The 18z GEFS going the deterministic run.  The 18z GEFS ensemble has no support from any other ensemble run.  The 18z AIGFS(which JB hates) is truly an awesome pattern by the end of its run.

edit: Some halfway support from the 18z AIFS Euro.  But the AIFS Euro looks pretty good.  I think the cold will be centered back a bit further west than early December which is probably not a bad thing.

[Matthew70]

Definitely looks like some model watching is taking shape.  
GaWx has had some great info. on the other forum.  
Let’s hope we keep the MJO going. 
 

[Save the itchy algae!]

I take it was not great for models overnight given the lack of posts.


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

16 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

I take it was not great for models overnight given the lack of posts.


.

I think Carvers is headed to Nash vegas for the Music City bowl, and he usually gets us started in the AM. Def. some pull back across multiple sub forums here and Southernwx against all the excitement of the fantasy storms yesterday centered on Jan 8 and beyond

We'll see how the wheel of models spins today. 

 

 

[housemtnTN]

The 12z GFS spawned some type of monstrosity on January 11th.