January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[John1122]

We are looking into early January now on modeling. With a potentially potent cold shot coming for the first few days of the year. With any luck, the Pac jet extends towards the polar regions, and then drops back towards the equator, which should get rid of the Aleutian ridge and help get a +PNA look. 

The GEFS wants nothing to do with that, it keeps the AR and hooks the NAO with Atlantic ridging. The GFS gets rid of the AR but has no -NAO at all, and no +PNA. The GEPS has a PNA ridge and -NAO with an eastern trough. The AIGFS gets rid of the AR and has the -NAO with a small eastern trough and looks like it's starting a +pna at the end. The Euro AI builds a tall PNA ridge by the end but it's scoured out the cold over Canada with much AN temps, but we are slightly BN here by the end. The EPS has a slight +PNA at the end, and a slight trough east and the AR was gone. 

So, outside of the GFS/GEFS we could be building towards a good pattern for us around Jan 8th-10th. The heart of winter is Jan 15th to Feb 15th. If we get to peak climo with the +PNA/-NAO look that's about all you can ask for.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

You should see some teleconection sorta speaking of where of MJO will be for the next several days even tho its into the COD upcoming

[jaxjagman]

This should be the real deal as we get into Jan,should see a change after that trough moves east,this cold spell is nothing but transient right now,you could possibly be fixing to see a more substantial one afterwards

[Golf757075]

35 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This should be the real deal as we get into Jan,should see a change after that trough moves east,this cold spell is nothing but transient right now,you could possibly be fixing to see a more substantial one afterwards

Merry Christmas!! I really hope so Jax. Once we get into January, clock is ticking for sho!

[Carvers Gap]

@John1122, I am not sure I trust the Euro Weeklies right now, but as @GaWxnoted...pretty big changes in the week 3-5 range.  Basically, the pattern just is wash...rinse...repeat.  NAO/Aleutian high -> NAO/+PNA...over and over.  This is week 3, and would be awesome to have for peak climatology. 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the 30day map.  There are several good time frames in here which are washed out - day 7 increments have those.  Really, there is a window between, Jan6-20.  The graphic above(from me) makes it look like we have to wait until week 3.  No, the good window is now on today's 12z EPS run(not the Weeklies).  I wanted to add this one so you all can see where the NAO is centered...right over the Davis Straits.  @Golf757075, there it is.  Let's see if it verifies.  There is another window to start February.  Now, that is shades of 95-96 IMHO.  To get off to a good start, we need a cold front on Jan 2 and/or 5th to score w/ getting cold into the forum area.  Cold in place almost always is our best way forward.  

I kind of wanted to make sure the past day or two of weeklies runs weren't one-offs...before commenting.  But still, proceed at your own risk.  Models have been absolutely treacherous at this range.

[Golf757075]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is the 30day map.  There are several good time frames in here which are washed out - day 7 increments have those.  Really, there is a window between, Jan6-20.  The graphic above(from me) makes it look like we have to wait until week 3.  No, the good window is now on today's 12z EPS run(not the Weeklies).  I wanted to add this one so you all can see where the NAO is centered...right over the Davis Straits.  @Golf757075, there it is.  Let's see if it verifies.  There is another window to start February.  Now, that is shades of 95-96 IMHO.  To get off to a good start, we need a cold front on Jan 2 and/or 5th to score w/ getting cold into the forum area.  Cold in place almost always is our best way forward.  

I kind of wanted to make sure the past day or two of weeklies runs weren't one-offs...before commenting.  But still, proceed at your own risk.  Models have been absolutely treacherous at this range.

This is from a guy who posts at another forum fwiw

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

This is from a guy who posts at another forum fwiw

Texas or sure needs a MUCH better Pacific.  We just need a serviceable Pacific w/ the NAO in place.  I think climatology eventually wins with this setup.  For mountain areas, climatology could win bigly.  Foothills areas....TBD.  Middle and western areas...I would say sliders are the best opportunity w/ the NAO.  But we'll see.  You all usually find a way to score w/ Nina winters and ample cold.  Even souther areas of the forum(northern regions of the Gulf states have a shot).  

[Carvers Gap]

I really am interested in the Jan 2nd timeframe.  If we can hit that in a reloading pattern, that would be good IMHO.  Here are ensemble members for major ensembles.  Only the GEFS is void.  I wouldn't list it as an outlier quite yet, but with the 12z GFS trends...probably it is.  Pretty nice uptick since yesterday.  In the unlikely chance the GEM hits a coup(along with its ensemble), that would be an impressive cold air regime which pinwheels in.  

Still plenty of uncertainty as of yet.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is another nugget from the 18z ICON.  It isn't a December map, but extrapolate...LOL.   

addendum:  The way that run looked. It had the PNA locked into the West w/ the AO and NAO negative.  If the GFS can back its trough up just a little, it gets here IMHO.  At 18z it isn't there, but it trended that way again at 500.

 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Golf757075 said:

Merry Christmas!! I really hope so Jax. Once we get into January, clock is ticking for sho!

No the clock is not ticking.  You still have February.  Remember the heart of winter is middle of January to the middle of February. As I’ve said many times before.  Out of the top 10 snows for TN.  The majority have happened in February. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS continues on its own solution path.  But it kind of still manages to get to where other models are by about Jan 6.  For those who are enjoying Alaska extreme runs...That is a -85.4 reading.  And the EPO ridge pops....all of that is headed for the Canadian Prairies.  It modifies quickly as it heads south and east...but that is the ticket if you want winter.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z is a jailbreak pattern after 300 in fantasy land.  It pretty much mirrors the GEM runs, but about a week later.  I think modeling just isn't sure which cold front to send the cold with...we noted that yesterday or this morning.  Good trends, but a ways to go.  

[Carvers Gap]

IF the NAO were to hold w/ the 18z GFS look in the Pacific late in that run....now, that would be fun.  What an EPO ridge on that run.  I have no idea if the flip flopping is over(prob not), but what a reversal after d8 when compared to 12z for the GFS.  Still plenty of uncertainty, but trends have been decent today.  I may be back later.  If not, I hope all of you have had a great Christmas w/ still more hours to enjoy.  I have to admit, I enjoyed running in the 50 degree temps this morning - don't think bad of me!  Haha.  

[Golf757075]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

IF the NAO were to hold w/ the 18z GFS look in the Pacific late in that run....now, that would be fun.  What an EPO ridge on that run.  I have no idea if the flip flopping is over(prob not), but what a reversal after d8 when compared to 12z for the GFS.  Still plenty of uncertainty, but trends have been decent today.  I may be back later.  If not, I hope all of you have had a great Christmas w/ still more hours to enjoy.  I have to admit, I enjoyed running in the 50 degree temps this morning - don't think bad of me!  Haha.  

If the trough ends up further west, then the pattern is changing imo compared to where we were. Just want some action lol

[Matthew70]

I’ll just leave this Merry Christmas wish here.

 

https://x.com/_jwall/status/2004299830592679942?s=46

[jaxjagman]

This might be one of the most negative EQBO since we've seen into the early 40's into Jan,tho its still up in the air right now

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

I mean,Dec should even break Dec records for EQBO

[Carvers Gap]

It may seem a bit quiet in here, and thus mean overnight runs were not good.  Nope, they were good, especially regarding cold.  The 6z GFS produced a run with the January 2 cold front, and the 6z Euro was headed that way.  Does it get as cold as the 0z GEM which has been leading the way in finding cold fronts?  Probably not - I hope not.  But the GEM (let's see how 12z looks at lunch) may be on its way to scoring another coup.  It identified the Dec 29-30th front first as well.  That may mean we have a useful instrument going forward in identifying cold fronts - just add some degrees back.  The 0z Euro looked really good at 500.

[Carvers Gap]

All 3 global ensembles breakdown the Aleutian high.  The 0z GEPS and 6z GEFS take it out just after 300.  The 0z EPS wipes it out just after 200.  All three end up with some version of blocking around Greenland, a ridge out West or the Eastern Pac, cold in Alaska, and BN temps and/or heights over the SE which is fed by an anomalously cold Yukon air mass.  Sort of looks like the same pattern we had to start December?  

Right now, the potential cold pattern looks dry.  I can't disagree with it.  However, to quote a met in the ENSO thread...it is very unlikely modeling can see details this far out(referencing d+1-) regarding storms.  Generally, I think our forum scores best when we have cold in place, or it is just lurking in the Plains.

One would think the entire Canadian Rockies cold air mass kicks eastward at some point.  It has during recent winters.  There are hints of that in modeling - some sooner and some later.

Lastly, LR ext modeling(weeklies) hints that the strongest cold shot will be near the end of January and into early February.  I simply don't know at this range, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Anybody happen to see the HP the 0z GFS snuck out on top of Greenland? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Anybody happen to see the HP the 0z GFS snuck out on top of Greenland? 

I should add it was waaaaayyyyy out in fantasy range, but still....

[Holston_River_Rambler]

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah, I missed that.  Fun find.  Definitely feedback IMHO, but IMPRESSIVE that any model could actually find a way to that outcome. I just don't understand why we are seeing so much of that(feedback) this winter.  WxBell graphics had to resort to white in order to illustrate that....they ran out of colors.

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I should add it was waaaaayyyyy out in fantasy range, but still....

The 6z run has a 1065 over the Yukon on Jan 9.  And that run of the GFS...sends it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Models that run that far out in time keep trying to churn up some big storm with cold and plenty of STJ moisture between let's says Jan 7 - 10, details of course TBD, but wouldn't be surprised if we do get a bigger storm in that time frame. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Models that run that far out in time keep trying to churn up some big storm with cold and plenty of STJ moisture between let's says Jan 7 - 10, details of course TBD, but wouldn't be surprised if we do get a bigger storm in that time frame. 

 

I agree. Nice window.  The end of January and early February has a similar signal.  

I really want to see if the 12z GEM moderates its temps for Jan 2 or if other models move colder.  The 6z Euro trended colder as did several members of the ensemble, but ended before it got here.  Not sure I want to see that entire air mass on Jan 2nd.  I think our best bet is for the Canadian Rockies cold to come out in pieces and catch the STJ if it can get more active.  I think the GEM has the right idea with the cold front on January 2nd, but also is suffering from feedback in the form of too much cold.  But any air mass which is that cold could very well have snow with it.  I will guess moderation for Jan 2, but still cold.  

That leaves the door open for Jan 6-10 to have a storm IMHO.

[Carvers Gap]

Last post for a bit...any time we start seeing big highs in Canada on modeling, that has been a good signal for winter weather in our area.  17-18 would be the exception.

[Carvers Gap]

@John1122, Mammoth is getting absolutely hammered right about now.  Those cam stills are impressive.  

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting quote from MammothSnowman after a very rough start to their season(uncharacteristically no snow in much of the Sierra Nevada)...

Storm Summary as of Christmas afternoon, the snow study site showed 4.66 inches of water content at 6 AM, and at 2:30 PM, the gauge is at 6.07 inches with 14.7 inches of new snow today. 

Snowfall Storm Total amounts at the snow study site are an estimated 65 inches. Adding the 30% adjustment for the Top, the Powder Fields of Mammoth would now have received over 79.5 inches of fresh snow. 

The Christmas Miracle Storm has come through with tons of base snow, and the season is saved at the last bell. Amazing…