January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[John1122]

We are looking into early January now on modeling. With a potentially potent cold shot coming for the first few days of the year. With any luck, the Pac jet extends towards the polar regions, and then drops back towards the equator, which should get rid of the Aleutian ridge and help get a +PNA look. 

The GEFS wants nothing to do with that, it keeps the AR and hooks the NAO with Atlantic ridging. The GFS gets rid of the AR but has no -NAO at all, and no +PNA. The GEPS has a PNA ridge and -NAO with an eastern trough. The AIGFS gets rid of the AR and has the -NAO with a small eastern trough and looks like it's starting a +pna at the end. The Euro AI builds a tall PNA ridge by the end but it's scoured out the cold over Canada with much AN temps, but we are slightly BN here by the end. The EPS has a slight +PNA at the end, and a slight trough east and the AR was gone. 

So, outside of the GFS/GEFS we could be building towards a good pattern for us around Jan 8th-10th. The heart of winter is Jan 15th to Feb 15th. If we get to peak climo with the +PNA/-NAO look that's about all you can ask for.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

You should see some teleconection sorta speaking of where of MJO will be for the next several days even tho its into the COD upcoming

[jaxjagman]

This should be the real deal as we get into Jan,should see a change after that trough moves east,this cold spell is nothing but transient right now,you could possibly be fixing to see a more substantial one afterwards

[Golf757075]

35 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This should be the real deal as we get into Jan,should see a change after that trough moves east,this cold spell is nothing but transient right now,you could possibly be fixing to see a more substantial one afterwards

Merry Christmas!! I really hope so Jax. Once we get into January, clock is ticking for sho!

[Carvers Gap]

@John1122, I am not sure I trust the Euro Weeklies right now, but as @GaWxnoted...pretty big changes in the week 3-5 range.  Basically, the pattern just is wash...rinse...repeat.  NAO/Aleutian high -> NAO/+PNA...over and over.  This is week 3, and would be awesome to have for peak climatology. 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the 30day map.  There are several good time frames in here which are washed out - day 7 increments have those.  Really, there is a window between, Jan6-20.  The graphic above(from me) makes it look like we have to wait until week 3.  No, the good window is now on today's 12z EPS run(not the Weeklies).  I wanted to add this one so you all can see where the NAO is centered...right over the Davis Straits.  @Golf757075, there it is.  Let's see if it verifies.  There is another window to start February.  Now, that is shades of 95-96 IMHO.  To get off to a good start, we need a cold front on Jan 2 and/or 5th to score w/ getting cold into the forum area.  Cold in place almost always is our best way forward.  

I kind of wanted to make sure the past day or two of weeklies runs weren't one-offs...before commenting.  But still, proceed at your own risk.  Models have been absolutely treacherous at this range.

[Golf757075]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is the 30day map.  There are several good time frames in here which are washed out - day 7 increments have those.  Really, there is a window between, Jan6-20.  The graphic above(from me) makes it look like we have to wait until week 3.  No, the good window is now on today's 12z EPS run(not the Weeklies).  I wanted to add this one so you all can see where the NAO is centered...right over the Davis Straits.  @Golf757075, there it is.  Let's see if it verifies.  There is another window to start February.  Now, that is shades of 95-96 IMHO.  To get off to a good start, we need a cold front on Jan 2 and/or 5th to score w/ getting cold into the forum area.  Cold in place almost always is our best way forward.  

I kind of wanted to make sure the past day or two of weeklies runs weren't one-offs...before commenting.  But still, proceed at your own risk.  Models have been absolutely treacherous at this range.

This is from a guy who posts at another forum fwiw

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

This is from a guy who posts at another forum fwiw

Texas or sure needs a MUCH better Pacific.  We just need a serviceable Pacific w/ the NAO in place.  I think climatology eventually wins with this setup.  For mountain areas, climatology could win bigly.  Foothills areas....TBD.  Middle and western areas...I would say sliders are the best opportunity w/ the NAO.  But we'll see.  You all usually find a way to score w/ Nina winters and ample cold.  Even souther areas of the forum(northern regions of the Gulf states have a shot).  

[Carvers Gap]

I really am interested in the Jan 2nd timeframe.  If we can hit that in a reloading pattern, that would be good IMHO.  Here are ensemble members for major ensembles.  Only the GEFS is void.  I wouldn't list it as an outlier quite yet, but with the 12z GFS trends...probably it is.  Pretty nice uptick since yesterday.  In the unlikely chance the GEM hits a coup(along with its ensemble), that would be an impressive cold air regime which pinwheels in.  

Still plenty of uncertainty as of yet.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is another nugget from the 18z ICON.  It isn't a December map, but extrapolate...LOL.   

addendum:  The way that run looked. It had the PNA locked into the West w/ the AO and NAO negative.  If the GFS can back its trough up just a little, it gets here IMHO.  At 18z it isn't there, but it trended that way again at 500.

 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Golf757075 said:

Merry Christmas!! I really hope so Jax. Once we get into January, clock is ticking for sho!

No the clock is not ticking.  You still have February.  Remember the heart of winter is middle of January to the middle of February. As I’ve said many times before.  Out of the top 10 snows for TN.  The majority have happened in February. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS continues on its own solution path.  But it kind of still manages to get to where other models are by about Jan 6.  For those who are enjoying Alaska extreme runs...That is a -85.4 reading.  And the EPO ridge pops....all of that is headed for the Canadian Prairies.  It modifies quickly as it heads south and east...but that is the ticket if you want winter.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z is a jailbreak pattern after 300 in fantasy land.  It pretty much mirrors the GEM runs, but about a week later.  I think modeling just isn't sure which cold front to send the cold with...we noted that yesterday or this morning.  Good trends, but a ways to go.  

[Carvers Gap]

IF the NAO were to hold w/ the 18z GFS look in the Pacific late in that run....now, that would be fun.  What an EPO ridge on that run.  I have no idea if the flip flopping is over(prob not), but what a reversal after d8 when compared to 12z for the GFS.  Still plenty of uncertainty, but trends have been decent today.  I may be back later.  If not, I hope all of you have had a great Christmas w/ still more hours to enjoy.  I have to admit, I enjoyed running in the 50 degree temps this morning - don't think bad of me!  Haha.