January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[John1122]

We are looking into early January now on modeling. With a potentially potent cold shot coming for the first few days of the year. With any luck, the Pac jet extends towards the polar regions, and then drops back towards the equator, which should get rid of the Aleutian ridge and help get a +PNA look. 

The GEFS wants nothing to do with that, it keeps the AR and hooks the NAO with Atlantic ridging. The GFS gets rid of the AR but has no -NAO at all, and no +PNA. The GEPS has a PNA ridge and -NAO with an eastern trough. The AIGFS gets rid of the AR and has the -NAO with a small eastern trough and looks like it's starting a +pna at the end. The Euro AI builds a tall PNA ridge by the end but it's scoured out the cold over Canada with much AN temps, but we are slightly BN here by the end. The EPS has a slight +PNA at the end, and a slight trough east and the AR was gone. 

So, outside of the GFS/GEFS we could be building towards a good pattern for us around Jan 8th-10th. The heart of winter is Jan 15th to Feb 15th. If we get to peak climo with the +PNA/-NAO look that's about all you can ask for.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

You should see some teleconection sorta speaking of where of MJO will be for the next several days even tho its into the COD upcoming

[jaxjagman]

This should be the real deal as we get into Jan,should see a change after that trough moves east,this cold spell is nothing but transient right now,you could possibly be fixing to see a more substantial one afterwards

[Golf757075]

35 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This should be the real deal as we get into Jan,should see a change after that trough moves east,this cold spell is nothing but transient right now,you could possibly be fixing to see a more substantial one afterwards

Merry Christmas!! I really hope so Jax. Once we get into January, clock is ticking for sho!

[Carvers Gap]

@John1122, I am not sure I trust the Euro Weeklies right now, but as @GaWxnoted...pretty big changes in the week 3-5 range.  Basically, the pattern just is wash...rinse...repeat.  NAO/Aleutian high -> NAO/+PNA...over and over.  This is week 3, and would be awesome to have for peak climatology. 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the 30day map.  There are several good time frames in here which are washed out - day 7 increments have those.  Really, there is a window between, Jan6-20.  The graphic above(from me) makes it look like we have to wait until week 3.  No, the good window is now on today's 12z EPS run(not the Weeklies).  I wanted to add this one so you all can see where the NAO is centered...right over the Davis Straits.  @Golf757075, there it is.  Let's see if it verifies.  There is another window to start February.  Now, that is shades of 95-96 IMHO.  To get off to a good start, we need a cold front on Jan 2 and/or 5th to score w/ getting cold into the forum area.  Cold in place almost always is our best way forward.  

I kind of wanted to make sure the past day or two of weeklies runs weren't one-offs...before commenting.  But still, proceed at your own risk.  Models have been absolutely treacherous at this range.

[Golf757075]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is the 30day map.  There are several good time frames in here which are washed out - day 7 increments have those.  Really, there is a window between, Jan6-20.  The graphic above(from me) makes it look like we have to wait until week 3.  No, the good window is now on today's 12z EPS run(not the Weeklies).  I wanted to add this one so you all can see where the NAO is centered...right over the Davis Straits.  @Golf757075, there it is.  Let's see if it verifies.  There is another window to start February.  Now, that is shades of 95-96 IMHO.  To get off to a good start, we need a cold front on Jan 2 and/or 5th to score w/ getting cold into the forum area.  Cold in place almost always is our best way forward.  

I kind of wanted to make sure the past day or two of weeklies runs weren't one-offs...before commenting.  But still, proceed at your own risk.  Models have been absolutely treacherous at this range.

This is from a guy who posts at another forum fwiw