Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[EVLINC64]

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

13m

 

 

You think this winter has been crazy? Wait till you see the endgame. WPO going to positive ( I will use NYC as an example) means after 7-10 cold days, we may hit 70 before March 15! But the spectacular strat Vortex split and WPO going back negative=Wild late March into April! White Easter ( or snow week before) anyone?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

11m

 

 

Only 3 cases of that kind of split around March 10, 2018, 2013, and 1984. All had very cold March 16-April 14. In addition this winter LOOKS LIKE THE BLEND OF 1933-1934 95-96. Cold came roaring back then too

[colonel717]

What a brutal result this would be... 

[colonel717]

Anyone who follows Organic Forecasting method from a poster who follows the method...

BSR - Case studies were examined and showed about three-week lag between a strong cyclone in the Bering Sea Region and severe weather or very cold weather over some portion of eastern two-thirds of the USA.

"The BeringSeaRule, to my eyes - flirts with all time history 

It supported historical blizzard of recent days. 

All I'm gonna say right now."

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

What a brutal result this would be... 

That would suck for sure, but we have seen that outcome many times before. 

Verbatim it would "try" to be freezing rain, and it might have some impact given it's falling at night around 28-30 degrees at the surface. Once you get to mid-morning though given it will be early March you are looking at mainly rain. The good thing is things have trended South most of the time this season. Several GEFS members are South and all snow. This several days out, so it may just disappear for all we know. 

[Burghblizz]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

What a brutal result this would be... 

Taken literally I get almost a foot 

But in reality - if GFS shows this 5 days out, that cutoff probably straddles I80. Plenty of time to get a swing the other way first. 

[TimB]

Need 0.6” overnight to clinch that above normal snow season and get that out of the way before the March megatorch.

[colonel717]

[TimB]

PIT has also very likely clinched all 3 winter months of below normal temps, but above normal snowfall for Feb seems like a bridge too far.

[Rd9108]

Last storm missing us. Ok that's fine. The coast was due for a monster Nor Easter. If this next storm gives us ice and then snow then ill be annoyed. Still too far out too even get invested. Theres still two waves that need to pass through. 

[Rd9108]

Looks like we are 10 inches above normal compared to the normal this time of year. Still time to add on. Can we get 50 or even 60. Still plenty of time. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

The Monday and Tuesday system continues to be a situation to
watch as the current trends with this system points to an
impactful late winter wet snow impact or potentially heavy
rainfall. A further south track will mean all snow expected and
a northerly track will make for more of a rainfall threat. Some
solutions within the ensembles suggest a northern track where
its too far north and precip is much less. Certainly a system
that needs some monitoring.

[colonel717]

2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

The Monday and Tuesday system continues to be a situation to
watch as the current trends with this system points to an
impactful late winter wet snow impact or potentially heavy
rainfall. A further south track will mean all snow expected and
a northerly track will make for more of a rainfall threat. Some
solutions within the ensembles suggest a northern track where
its too far north and precip is much less. Certainly a system
that needs some monitoring.

Too bad cant lock in GFS right now for this storm. 

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, colonel717 said:

Too bad cant lock in GFS right now for this storm. 

Just saw that myself. This just feels like a slop storm for us. 

[Rd9108]

To be fair its trended south 

[Rd9108]

Ensembles should be semi alright

[Burghblizz]

13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

To be fair its trended south 

Almost looks like more of a west/east warm push instead of N/S. If that’s the case, might have a better chance of staying on the good side. 

[colonel717]

44 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Ensembles should be semi alright

 

[TimB]

29 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

 

I’ll take #20 please.

[north pgh]

A solid inch and a half sticking to everything. Nice viewing as I take the dog out at 5:30. 

[Gordo74]

2"-ish out this way. Made the mistake of trying to commute in it at 530am. Made it about 2 miles on state roads before I turned around and decided to wait until later. 

[Rd9108]

Its not official until I get text messages from IPhone users asking me if we are gonna get 8+. I wonder what Apple weather is saying. Thats sleet mixed in too i believe.

[colonel717]

18 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Its not official until I get text messages from IPhone users asking me if we are gonna get 8+. I wonder what Apple weather is saying. 

 

4.5 days away pretty much in the bullseye. Like that will work out... Plus EURO has it way north and later.  I'd like to see the models show it south of us for now. Then bring it north Sat and Sunday.

[Rd9108]

28 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

4.5 days away pretty much in the bullseye. Like that will work out... Plus EURO has it way north and later.  I'd like to see the models show it south of us for now. Then bring it north Sat and Sunday.

Euro still wants nothing to do with this so Im not getting truly invested until we see this show up more say saturday-sunday. Ensembles atleast still look great. Haven't looked at the EPS.

[Burghblizz]

Happy beating climo snowfall today for those that celebrate.

So while the Monday threat looks shaky at best, not a bad place be sitting.  Either way - likely to add on before the end of the season. 

[Rd9108]

5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Happy beating climo snowfall today for those that celebrate.

So while the Monday threat looks shaky at best, not a bad place be sitting.  Either way - likely to add on before the end of the season. 

At worst we have an above average season with lets be honest a 12+ storm. Most places around the area received over 12 even if it wasnt official. As of now this is a B+ - A- season. 

[Burghblizz]

22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

At worst we have an above average season with lets be honest a 12+ storm. Most places around the area received over 12 even if it wasnt official. As of now this is a B+ - A- season. 

I got over 14” dumped in my yard. Good by me all the way around.

Icing on the cake would be a nice paste bomb early next week. Lead the way GFS

[north pgh]

Nice...GFS (In the game)

 

[colonel717]

18 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Nice...GFS (In the game)

 

Glad it went south and now the follow up storm came south. CMC decent but a little too north. 

[Burghblizz]

GFS taken literally is worse (lighter snows), but in reality much better as far as breathing room. Considerably south. 

[colonel717]