colonel717 Posted yesterday at 01:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:25 AM 2 out of 20 GEFS give us 6+, 3 out of 50 EPS do. Still a long shot at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted yesterday at 04:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:25 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted yesterday at 03:33 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:33 PM Some hits and a lot of misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted yesterday at 03:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:34 PM Almost half give us some meaningful snow. See if this trends better. In the meantime im gonna enjoy this sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted yesterday at 03:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:35 PM Not a lot of excitement in here and I feel the same. I see this storm playing out like the 12z Icon as the most likely outcome. Weak primary running up to Pgh, transfer then bombs and goes up the coast. Obviously not the final solution but if I were a betting man, this is where I'd put my money. Hope I am wrong and I frequently am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted yesterday at 04:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:31 PM 55 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Not a lot of excitement in here and I feel the same. I see this storm playing out like the 12z Icon as the most likely outcome. Weak primary running up to Pgh, transfer then bombs and goes up the coast. Obviously not the final solution but if I were a betting man, this is where I'd put my money. Hope I am wrong and I frequently am. That's because its so nice out. Anyway definitely looks like a coastal hit but I wouldn't rule out an advisory event. Gfs shows it and CMC is close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted yesterday at 04:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:47 PM 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: Not a lot of excitement in here and I feel the same. I see this storm playing out like the 12z Icon as the most likely outcome. Weak primary running up to Pgh, transfer then bombs and goes up the coast. Obviously not the final solution but if I were a betting man, this is where I'd put my money. Hope I am wrong and I frequently am. I've got an eyebrow raised, but temps are marginal even with a perfect transfer. Miller Bs we gotta make hay on the primary tracking perfectly to thump us, then the secondary development cuts off waa before we slop, and we don't have much buffer vs the Jan storm and those details won't get resolved until much closer. One thing these 12z runs do guarantee though is Ill be checking in more than once a day now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EVLINC64 Posted yesterday at 05:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:12 PM The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 2h Wish to see the rain in LAX on Thursday first, but the 5 big storms I am using have the AIS very close for Sun-Mon storm. Cool, the way these threats are always on the weekend. Case Study on Weatherbell. So far Google and GFS AI are beating Euro, tho at 06z, EURO AI went to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted yesterday at 05:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:16 PM 38 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: That's because its so nice out. Anyway definitely looks like a coastal hit but I wouldn't rule out an advisory event. Gfs shows it and CMC is close to it A 2-4 inch advisory event, where it likely wouldn't even accumulate on hard surfaces, does nothing for me especially this time of year when weather is as you say so nice and when east of us is possibly getting 12+ up to 3.5 ft. At least it is still 5 days away so could get better or maybe even worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted yesterday at 05:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:35 PM 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: That's because its so nice out. Anyway definitely looks like a coastal hit but I wouldn't rule out an advisory event. Gfs shows it and CMC is close to it Today should just about do it for the snow pack in my yard, does feel nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 29 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Today should just about do it for the snow pack in my yard, does feel nice though. I still have full coverage in my front yard. Some areas still 4+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago If we are not going to get big snow I hope for something like the EURO to happen. We don't get it, no one does. Even looking at GEFS and EPS, there are not a lot of big snow producers. I see a lot of people are buying in due to large number of op models showing big snow for their areas, but IMO they are setting themselves up for disappointment. Model agreement as we know doesn't mean storm will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Slight chance of hail Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Hush now Paul. Winter is back and you cant stop it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Hush now Paul. Winter is back and you cant stop it I do not trust the UKie... I want more winter, but as I have said only if it comes with big snows at this point. It an IMBY sport. If I don't get it I don't root for others to get it. Thats why I have no problem with latest EURO run. No snow for me, then no snow for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Might have to enjoy next week as the last week of winter. I think the Sunday event is mostly a coastal, either way - scrape or out-to-sea. Doesn't appear to have a lot of intrigue for our area. I can see one or two other snow chances. Nothing major yet. Incoming March pattern looks like straight-up pacific firehose of warmth for most of the CONUS. I'm more of a November and December snow guy, truthfully. March is often a wildcard, but if I had to choose, I'd take early season wins over late ones. Our bigger March snows seem to pop every five years on average. Next year would be five years since a healthier March snow total (17.1" in 2022). The pattern can always flip colder mid-or-late March, but by then you're asking a lot for true snow events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 5 hours ago, jwilson said: Might have to enjoy next week as the last week of winter. I think the Sunday event is mostly a coastal, either way - scrape or out-to-sea. Doesn't appear to have a lot of intrigue for our area. I can see one or two other snow chances. Nothing major yet. Incoming March pattern looks like straight-up pacific firehose of warmth for most of the CONUS. I'm more of a November and December snow guy, truthfully. March is often a wildcard, but if I had to choose, I'd take early season wins over late ones. Our bigger March snows seem to pop every five years on average. Next year would be five years since a healthier March snow total (17.1" in 2022). The pattern can always flip colder mid-or-late March, but by then you're asking a lot for true snow events. Im with you, give me 2nd week of november thru the second week of February any year. That's part of the reason I'm happy with this season, strong early start and good storms. I had fun with all the events, Winter lived a good life, now I'm mentally worn down and welcome the natural change of seasons. Anyways, another hint Spring is around the corner, the birds. Nothing says deep winter like hearing birds chirping while you shovel snow lol I agree after next week we warm significantly, doesn't mean we can't sneak something in, or maybe we cool mid March but with each passing day for it to be worth my time a snow event needs to increasingly up the ante. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago If we are not going to get big snow I hope for something like the EURO to happen. We don't get it, no one does. Even looking at GEFS and EPS, there are not a lot of big snow producers. I see a lot of people are buying in due to large number of op models showing big snow for their areas, but IMO they are setting themselves up for disappointment. Model agreement as we know doesn't mean storm will happen.So many people asked me about snow next weekend. The hype train is really chugging along right now. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago 21 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: So many people asked me about snow next weekend. The hype train is really chugging along right now. . I feel like Apple weather app is the culprit a lot. Appears to have very limited human input. Just checked mine - right on queue, saying 6” for Sunday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 38 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: I feel like Apple weather app is the culprit a lot. Appears to have very limited human input. Just checked mine - right on queue, saying 6” for Sunday. Between that and the fake Facebook weather pages that post ridiculous graphics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Apple weather is terrible. I was listening to 93.7 the fan and of course one of the guys was like we are expecting 7 inches of snow this weekend. Where does apple get their weather info from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Absolutely comical. Every single model except the euro had this storm in some form or another at 12z, and every single model that’s run so far at 0z has lost the storm. I wonder if that’s ever happened that quickly on 6 different models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Absolutely comical. Every single model except the euro had this storm in some form or another at 12z, and every single model that’s run so far at 0z has lost the storm. I wonder if that’s ever happened that quickly on 6 different models.That's why the Euro is still the king. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago https://digital.weather.gov/ hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Snow continues through the day Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Snow continues through the day Sunday Did they just ignore the entire 0z model suite? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Wtf are they smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Wtf are they smoking? Those maps are not created based on one day of model runs, more like a blend over the course of a couple days with different weight applied based on what the forecaster thinks is important in any given setup. It's happened numerous times when a storm was on the models then gets lost in the mid-range only to come back in some form or another. I'm not saying it will happen this time, but it would be crazy if actual forecasts for public consumption swung all over with every model run. If that were the case, you may as well just load up Facebook and read some yahoo showing the latest snow map from Euro and presenting it as a forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Wtf are they smoking? Obviously the good stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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