Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

2 out of 20 GEFS give us 6+, 3 out of 50 EPS do. Still a long shot at this time. 

[Rd9108]

[Rd9108]

Some hits and a lot of misses

[Rd9108]

Almost half give us some meaningful snow. See if this trends better. In the meantime im gonna enjoy this sunshine 

[colonel717]

Not a lot of excitement in here and I feel the same. I see this storm playing out like the 12z Icon as the most likely outcome. Weak primary running up to Pgh, transfer then bombs and goes up the coast.  Obviously not the final solution but if I were a betting man, this is where I'd put my money. Hope I am wrong and I frequently am.

[Rd9108]

55 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Not a lot of excitement in here and I feel the same. I see this storm playing out like the 12z Icon as the most likely outcome. Weak primary running up to Pgh, transfer then bombs and goes up the coast.  Obviously not the final solution but if I were a betting man, this is where I'd put my money. Hope I am wrong and I frequently am.

That's because its so nice out. Anyway definitely looks like a coastal hit but I wouldn't rule out an advisory event. Gfs shows it and CMC is close to it 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

Not a lot of excitement in here and I feel the same. I see this storm playing out like the 12z Icon as the most likely outcome. Weak primary running up to Pgh, transfer then bombs and goes up the coast.  Obviously not the final solution but if I were a betting man, this is where I'd put my money. Hope I am wrong and I frequently am.

I've got an eyebrow raised, but temps are marginal even with a perfect transfer. Miller Bs we gotta make hay on the primary tracking perfectly to thump us, then the secondary development cuts off waa before we slop, and we don't have much buffer vs the Jan storm and those details won't get resolved until much closer.

One thing these 12z runs do guarantee though is Ill be checking in more than once a day now. 

 

[EVLINC64]

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

2h

 

 

Wish to see the rain in LAX on Thursday first, but the 5 big storms I am using have the AIS very close for Sun-Mon storm. Cool, the way these threats are always on the weekend. Case Study on Weatherbell. So far Google and GFS AI are beating Euro, tho at 06z, EURO AI went to them

[colonel717]

38 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

That's because its so nice out. Anyway definitely looks like a coastal hit but I wouldn't rule out an advisory event. Gfs shows it and CMC is close to it 

A 2-4 inch advisory event, where it likely wouldn't even accumulate on hard surfaces, does nothing for me especially this time of year when weather is as you say so nice and when east of us is possibly getting 12+ up to 3.5 ft. At least it is still 5 days away so could get better or maybe even worse...

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

That's because its so nice out. Anyway definitely looks like a coastal hit but I wouldn't rule out an advisory event. Gfs shows it and CMC is close to it 

Today should just about do it for the snow pack in my yard, does feel nice though.

[colonel717]

29 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Today should just about do it for the snow pack in my yard, does feel nice though.

I still have full coverage in my front yard. Some areas still 4+ inches.

[colonel717]

If we are not going to get big snow I hope for something like the EURO to happen. We don't get it, no one does.  Even looking at GEFS and EPS, there are not a lot of big snow producers. I see a lot of people are buying in due to large number of op models showing big snow for their areas, but IMO they are setting themselves up for disappointment. Model agreement as we know doesn't mean storm will happen.

[colonel717]

Slight chance of hail Friday

[Rd9108]

Hush now Paul. Winter is back and you cant stop it

 

[colonel717]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Hush now Paul. Winter is back and you cant stop it

 

 

I do not trust the UKie... I want more winter, but as I have said only if it comes with big snows at this point. It an IMBY sport. If I don't get it I don't root for others to get it. Thats why I have no problem with latest EURO run. No snow for me, then no snow for you... 

[jwilson]

Might have to enjoy next week as the last week of winter.  I think the Sunday event is mostly a coastal, either way - scrape or out-to-sea.  Doesn't appear to have a lot of intrigue for our area.  I can see one or two other snow chances.  Nothing major yet.

Incoming March pattern looks like straight-up pacific firehose of warmth for most of the CONUS.  I'm more of a November and December snow guy, truthfully.  March is often a wildcard, but if I had to choose, I'd take early season wins over late ones.

Our bigger March snows seem to pop every five years on average.  Next year would be five years since a healthier March snow total (17.1" in 2022).

The pattern can always flip colder mid-or-late March, but by then you're asking a lot for true snow events.