Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

UKie has this for midweek

[SteelCity87]

47 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Goofus still liking the 2 clippers. 2-3in each

Seems to be in a world of it's own w Sunday. Curious to see what happens since we're only 4 days away. 

[EVLINC64]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

Looks like models are starting to adjust colder again as they have all season in the midrange. 

Geee Whiz Nuh Uh 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

19 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Seems to be in a world of it's own w Sunday. Curious to see what happens since we're only 4 days away. 

If you loop through the runs, it looks like the GFS is progressively getting weaker and weaker for the Sunday thing. Couple that with it not showing on any other guidance and I think we know how this will go.  

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

NAM gives the area 3-4 inches but still 48 hours away. 

With the winds it and fluffy nature of the snow, it's going to be blowing and drifting around too. 

I'll be curious to see if we get any squalls later Friday night.

[colonel717]

Next weekend looks like major potential. EURO on board. 

[EVLINC64]

44 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Next weekend looks like major potential. EURO on board. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

42m

 

 

Models are all over the place on late next week, something I have issued a big storm watch for the NE on Weatherbell based on studying pattern analogs and concluding a blend of 3/29/84,12/10/92,02/09/69 and 02/13/ work best. So the surface map for that gave me this for day 11, New euro went to it. So, like the storm a couple of weeks ago, where using 3 analogs gave a great solution a week out ( not perfect, but dang close), I started looking at this 5 days ago. The question then becomes, DO I HAVE THE RIGHT ANALOGS? But that means I am in charge of the idea, not the models ping ponging me. So you put out the idea and then wait and see if modeling comes to it. But it's not based on the models, it's based on pattern recognition and then doing the work to go back through all those maps and try to get the right package. This is how they did it in the old days, when 4 runs a day of computer models did not force a ping pong match among meteorologists. SO I RELY ON MY SKILL, NOT THE MODEL IN SETTING THIS UP! If you just look at models until a few days before you can get whip sawed, or you simply get on TV and say the models says this or that, and all you are is instead of a forecaster is a model spokesperson. The risk? That you do all this work and are wrong, and it's happened to me many times. But I would rather work and risk than outsource what God gave me. And besides, Bocelli is right in Un Nuovo Giorno: Solo rischiando tu vivrai. Only by risking do you live

[colonel717]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

With the winds it and fluffy nature of the snow, it's going to be blowing and drifting around too. 

I'll be curious to see if we get any squalls later Friday night.

Too bad Lake Erie is frozen over, but hopefully the front passing can stir up some nice squalls. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

Next weekend looks like major potential. EURO on board. 

If models were a buffet...

I'd take a side of GFS for this weekend, scoop of the UKMET for midweek, and for my main course I'll take the Euro for next weekend. 

Once the desert cart comes around for late feb / early march, I'll see what I want off of that. 

[Burghblizz]

12z Euro and 6Z GFS loving next weekend. 12z gfs south.

Interesting to see what unfolds over the next (gasp) 10 days. But the signal is there. 

[colonel717]

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An Alberta Clipper will track through the Great Lakes and bring
another round of snow to the region Friday morning into early
Saturday. In general, forecast values across the lowlands
average around 2.5 inches, with localized areas measuring as
high as 4 inches. Peak times for snow accumulation still look
to be between 10am and 5pm, which will likely impact the Friday
evening commute. There is very little uncertainty about the snow
type; it is expected to be light, fluffy snow, with snow-liquid
ratios ranging from 18:1 to 21:1.

Higher amounts are likely in the ridges with enhanced rate due
to upsloping. 3 to 6 inches are currently expected with locally
higher amounts possible. Blizzard conditions are also possible
given the character of the snow and eventual wind gusts
up to 45mph. In coordination with surrounding offices, a Winter
Storm Watch was issued for the ridges of WV and PA.

In the evening, an advancing cold front may result in another
period of increased snow rates, and possibly snow squalls. Be
prepared for rapidly crashing temperatures into the single
digits, gusty winds, and low visibility if snow squalls develop.

[colonel717]

35 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

12z Euro and 6Z GFS loving next weekend. 12z gfs south.

Interesting to see what unfolds over the next (gasp) 10 days. But the signal is there. 

I kind of wish the models waited until Day 4 to show something.  I was doing so good with sleep and not watching 0z models as they came out. Now they are sucking me in...

[MikeB_01]

37 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

12z Euro and 6Z GFS loving next weekend. 12z gfs south.

Interesting to see what unfolds over the next (gasp) 10 days. But the signal is there. 

10 days haha Here we go again. Time to reel in another big one

[colonel717]

What a disaster that GFS run was. 4 inches of rain next week would cause major flooding with ice jams next weekend. Thankfully it's still 10 days away and it's  the GFS...

[TimB]

Is it just me or is tomorrow’s clipper looking a bit more meh as it approaches? Like closer to 1” rather than 2 or 3 if we’re lucky?

[TimB]

Just feels like there’s still a very real path to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and somehow fall short of normal annual snowfall despite already being at 36” for the season as of 1/25.

[Rd9108]

5 minutes ago, TimB said:

Just feels like there’s still a very real path to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and somehow fall short of normal annual snowfall despite already being at 36” for the season as of 1/25.

Stop it. 

[colonel717]

Have a nice snow shower. Everything whitened up. 

[MikeB_01]

26 minutes ago, TimB said:

Just feels like there’s still a very real path to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and somehow fall short of normal annual snowfall despite already being at 36” for the season as of 1/25.

At this point, even if it falls below, this is season has exceeded my expectations and has been fun.

[Rd9108]

I mean the HRRR has us for around 2 inches. I dont know what people were expecting from a clipper with no real gulf involvement. We are 7 away from average. If we get two thats 5 away. I think we should make our average with basically all of February,March and April left.

[Burghblizz]

28 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Have a nice snow shower. Everything whitened up. 

Getting this light but fluffy snow. Kind of unexpected.  Because there is zero wind, it’s sticking to the trees like a wet snow. Snow globe morning. 

[colonel717]

10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I mean the HRRR has us for around 2 inches. I dont know what people were expecting from a clipper with no real gulf involvement. We are 7 away from average. If we get two thats 5 away. I think we should make our average with basically all of February,March and April left.

No real lake involvement either. Clippers end up nowcasting events. 2 in is usually where I set my bar for a clipper.

Is the airport really that low on their total this year. I am at 41.2 IMBY and I likely missed counting a few of the smaller .1 -.2 type of snows.

[Rd9108]

13 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

No real lake involvement either. Clippers end up nowcasting events. 2 in is usually where I set my bar for a clipper.

Is the airport really that low on their total this year. I am at 41.2 IMBY and I likely missed counting a few of the smaller .1 -.2 type of snows.

Yes they are really only at like 37. 

[MikeB_01]

17 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

No real lake involvement either. Clippers end up nowcasting events. 2 in is usually where I set my bar for a clipper.

Is the airport really that low on their total this year. I am at 41.2 IMBY and I likely missed counting a few of the smaller .1 -.2 type of snows.

Wasn't there a day in early decemeber where a thin snow band dropped several inches along the southern AGC border, but totally whiffed in other parts of the county? -- might explain at lease some of it?

[Burghblizz]

I got about a fluffy half inch on trees. The wind kicked up slightly and started blowing some snow. Because the snow is so fluffy it’s actually coming off the trees as individual flakes. Almost like a mini squall. Not sure I’ve ever seen that, but a cool effect adding to scenery. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

At this point, even if it falls below, this is season has exceeded my expectations and has been fun.

I'm with ya on this. If it all ended tomorrow considering we got the big storm, stretch of deep cold and snowpack, thunder snow on new year's, squalls etc. this winter is already an A for me. 

[EVLINC64]

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

43m

 

 

I am telling you folks. If you go and look at the AIS that are available, you will find that while the Euro AI ensemble is a bit better, most of them are just like all the rest I just think this whole hype and fascination with a new toy is leading the field even deeper into

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[colonel717]

[colonel717]

A round of widespread snowfall is expected Friday morning into

early Saturday as an Alberta Clipper tracks through the Great

Lakes. Peak times for snow accumulation still look to be between

10am and 5pm Friday, which will likely impact the Friday evening

commute. Confidence is high in light, fluffy snow character with

snow-to-liquid ratios ranging from 18:1 to 21:1.

 

Snowfall amount spreads remain tightly clustered between 1 and

3 inches for the lowlands, with a large portion of the area

currently in the 2-3" range in the official forecast. There is a

bit more uncertainty across the higher elevations where snowfall

rates will be enhances due to upsloping. 3 to 6 inches are

currently expected with locally higher amounts possible. CAMs

have just now come into range and are pushing higher values, but

with fairly shallow moisture. There is also a possibility that

greater snowfall remains south and west of the area where jet

ascent is more favorable. A Winter Storm Watch remains in

effect, though probabilities for widespread 6+ inches have

decreased in the last cycle.

In the evening, an advancing cold front may result in another

period of increased snow rates, and possibly snow squalls. Be

prepared for rapidly crashing temperatures into the single

digits, gusty winds, and low visibility if snow squalls develop.

Winds will quickly pick up behind the front Friday night as

temperatures rapidly fall into the single to negative single

digits by sunrise Saturday. With prevailing wind gusts of

25-30mph near the surface, wind chill values will drop to well

below zero. Most of the area will see wind chill values of -10

or colder, with -20 to -25 possible north of Pittsburgh and in

the higher elevations. An Extreme Cold Watch was issued for

these coldest areas, and a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be

needed for most other locations.

[Gordo74]

How's next weekend looking on the models?