Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

UKie has this for midweek

[SteelCity87]

47 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Goofus still liking the 2 clippers. 2-3in each

Seems to be in a world of it's own w Sunday. Curious to see what happens since we're only 4 days away. 

[EVLINC64]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

Looks like models are starting to adjust colder again as they have all season in the midrange. 

Geee Whiz Nuh Uh 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

19 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Seems to be in a world of it's own w Sunday. Curious to see what happens since we're only 4 days away. 

If you loop through the runs, it looks like the GFS is progressively getting weaker and weaker for the Sunday thing. Couple that with it not showing on any other guidance and I think we know how this will go.  

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

NAM gives the area 3-4 inches but still 48 hours away. 

With the winds it and fluffy nature of the snow, it's going to be blowing and drifting around too. 

I'll be curious to see if we get any squalls later Friday night.

[colonel717]

Next weekend looks like major potential. EURO on board. 

[EVLINC64]

44 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Next weekend looks like major potential. EURO on board. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

42m

 

 

Models are all over the place on late next week, something I have issued a big storm watch for the NE on Weatherbell based on studying pattern analogs and concluding a blend of 3/29/84,12/10/92,02/09/69 and 02/13/ work best. So the surface map for that gave me this for day 11, New euro went to it. So, like the storm a couple of weeks ago, where using 3 analogs gave a great solution a week out ( not perfect, but dang close), I started looking at this 5 days ago. The question then becomes, DO I HAVE THE RIGHT ANALOGS? But that means I am in charge of the idea, not the models ping ponging me. So you put out the idea and then wait and see if modeling comes to it. But it's not based on the models, it's based on pattern recognition and then doing the work to go back through all those maps and try to get the right package. This is how they did it in the old days, when 4 runs a day of computer models did not force a ping pong match among meteorologists. SO I RELY ON MY SKILL, NOT THE MODEL IN SETTING THIS UP! If you just look at models until a few days before you can get whip sawed, or you simply get on TV and say the models says this or that, and all you are is instead of a forecaster is a model spokesperson. The risk? That you do all this work and are wrong, and it's happened to me many times. But I would rather work and risk than outsource what God gave me. And besides, Bocelli is right in Un Nuovo Giorno: Solo rischiando tu vivrai. Only by risking do you live

[colonel717]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

With the winds it and fluffy nature of the snow, it's going to be blowing and drifting around too. 

I'll be curious to see if we get any squalls later Friday night.

Too bad Lake Erie is frozen over, but hopefully the front passing can stir up some nice squalls. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

Next weekend looks like major potential. EURO on board. 

If models were a buffet...

I'd take a side of GFS for this weekend, scoop of the UKMET for midweek, and for my main course I'll take the Euro for next weekend. 

Once the desert cart comes around for late feb / early march, I'll see what I want off of that.