Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

11 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Pretty awesome seeing how bullish they are but being 48 hours out still worries me. We've seen how these can go wrong and that's with 24 hours out. With that being said its fun tracking a KU again.

[colonel717]

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

This doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, unless they really think ratios would be impacted. Most of the immediate area would still see no ice, but they would be scaling back accum everywhere 

Yes and also says snow starts as heavy wet snow. I would highly doubt that. Temps Sat 14 degrees. Gonna struggle with virga for a while as far as I can tell 

[colonel717]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Pretty awesome seeing how bullish they are but being 48 hours out still worries me. We've seen how these can go wrong and that's with 24 hours out. With that being said its fun tracking a KU again.

We will always be gun shy.  Not having to worry about being close to cut off is awesome.

[TimB]

14 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

This doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, unless they really think ratios would be impacted. Most of the immediate area would still see no ice, but they would be scaling back accum everywhere. But I also have to think this is the heaviest QPF scenario.

There is an important consideration regarding these totals. With
the northward trend in guidance/warm air intrusion, a slight
lowering of snow-to-liquid ratio is noted. Ratios may drop to
between 10:1 and 15:1 from Pittsburgh on north, and potentially
to the 8:1 range or so towards the Mason-Dixon Line. So, a
wetter, heavier snow may be possible as compared to previous
messaging. These lower ratios may ultimately cut down snow
totals as well. We will continue to monitor these trends and
adjust accordingly. However, there is fairly high confidence in
Winter Storm Warning-level impacts across the forecast area, and
an eventual upgrade is nearly certain. It still appears that the
heaviest snow should be during the day Sunday, and then tapering
off that night. Cold northwesterly flow and the crossing parent
upper trough could result in lingering snow into Monday.

If they’re putting this in the discussion already, I’m more than a little concerned.

[Mailman]

The northward trend has continued to some degree in the latest 
guidance suite. We still foresee northern Plains and southern 
Rockies mid-level shortwaves to phase as they cross into the Middle 
Ohio Valley. As they do so, a surface low develops near the Gulf 
coast and tracks northeastward. There is still some variance with 
the track of this low. The northern trend is starting to increase 
the chance of some mixed precipitation to the southeast of 
Pittsburgh, and a slight chance of freezing rain has been introduced 
to the gridded forecast. The chances of this are not high enough to 
meaningfully change the overall snow totals or the messaging to a 
significant degree, but it is a trend that we will need to monitor 
as the event approaches. In any event, support for overall lift
remains quite good given a coupled 250mb jet structure, layered
frontogenesis, and an inverted surface trough. A moisture surge
including precipitable water totals of around 0.7 inch (90th
percentile for late January) and a deep, saturated dendritic
growth zone will also support significant snowfall totals.

[colonel717]

[southpark]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looking forward to those 90th percentile maps, if that's the current expectation.

They decreased totals a little. Still looking good though.

[MikeB_01]

as the 18z models start rolling, i'm busting out the stop sign again. We need to stop the NW trend. I hate that the mets are even putting it on the table. 

[colonel717]

Keep in mind NAM is not running with any new recon data. If its bad, throw it out. If its good keep it and will only get better when new data incorporated.

[dj3]

That EPS map above is a sight to behold. Looks like all members 6+ with 10:1. 

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, dj3 said:

That EPS map above is a sight to behold. Looks like all members 6+ with 10:1. 

do you have the map? i want to enjoy it

[colonel717]

Just now, dj3 said:

That EPS map above is a sight to behold. Looks like all members 6+ with 10:1. 

I have never seen anything like that 48 or so hours before a storm. I've seen less agreement on the day of the storm than 48 hours or more away

[dj3]

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

do you have the map? i want to enjoy it

Colonel did the work and posted it 2-3 posts above!

[dj3]

1 minute ago, colonel717 said:

I have never seen anything like that 48 or so hours before a storm. I've seen less agreement on the day of the storm than 48 hours or more away

Yea just incredible agreement and awesome for us because there appears to be wiggle room on both sides to get us a really good storm. 

[Mailman]

Did not see this posted.

 

[colonel717]

Mix line south of 12z. We are getting crushed here. Then quick dry slot.

[TimB]

It’s acceptable. Dry slots and shuts off kinda early because the low passes directly over us, but it’s good.

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

It’s acceptable. Dry slots and shuts off kinda early because the low passes directly over us, but it’s good.

those rates will be incredible 

[Burghblizz]

Evolution of the NAM looks fine. Can’t really put too much stock in what it does in the final 24 hours. Really plows the SLP north and dry slots us a bit. Heavier snows would be city and north

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Damn work... Had me occupied all day. How dare they expect a full day's work for wages paid when a snowstorm is eminent! 

I like were we sit still, love that NWS graphic that has us circled for possibility to see 13-18 inches if all goes right.  I would expect the AIs to maybe be a bit more onto the warm nose intrusion, they are trained on past storms, and the majority would argue a track like this probably brings the mix but I think even if we flirt with warm nose, nobody sees plain rain, we have a legit arctic airmass and near perfect wall of high pressure to keep funneling that into the storm.

 

[colonel717]

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 minute ago, Burghblizz said:

Evolution of the NAM looks fine. Can’t really put too much stock in what it does in the final 24 hours. Really plows the SLP north and dry slots us a bit. Heavier snows would be city and north

Yeah, I mean we have a few paths, and they all look like they lead to a big snowfall for once. If something like that NAM happens, we probably get crushed with heavier snow and still push double digits, if more like the GFS, then we get a longer more prolonged event that should get us to at least 12+

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Another solution in the mix. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Another solution in the mix. 

How many times has the NAM at range worked out when we needed what it showed? The 3K is good for short range, but there is a reason this thing is getting retired. Not that it't can't be onto something, but I wouldn't let it ruin your day. Let the GFS and Euro do that. 

[Rd9108]

[Rd9108]

[Rd9108]

Alright one final model before I go and be productive. 

This is supposed to replace the NAM