Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[MikeB_01]

GFS is off and running... 

[Rd9108]

I mean I look at this map and I like what I see. 

[southpark]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

I mean I look at this map and I like what I see. 

No concern that low is going to ride up into us?

[MikeB_01]

very little change from the GFS so far. 36 hours in and it looks almost identical to the 18z run. Does anyone know if this has some of the sampled data in it? I read earlier today that they were going to sample the energy off of Baja.

[colonel717]

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

very little change from the GFS so far. 36 hours in and it looks almost identical to the 18z run. Does anyone know if this has some of the sampled data in it? I read earlier today that they were going to sample the energy off of Baja.

Yes as does EURO. Nam didn't 

[colonel717]

GFS looking better early on. We shall see. 

[MikeB_01]

Just now, colonel717 said:

GFS looking better early on. We shall see. 

yes. Agreed. Looking (very) slightly more amplified by hour 48

[Mailman]

AIGFS seems to have delivered, also.

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, Mailman said:

AIGFS seems to have delivered, also.

Yes. I dont have any access to good maps, but it doesn't look like any mixing issues with the AIGFS. Solidly below freezing at 850 throughout the entire run

[Mailman]

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

Yes. I dont have any access to good maps, but it doesn't look like any mixing issues with the AIGFS. Solidly below freezing at 850 throughout the entire run

Yep + QPF is up.

[colonel717]

Just now, Mailman said:

Yep + QPF is up.

Up .3 that's huge.

GFS joins the party. 

Time to go all in

[MikeB_01]

trying to analyze the 500 vorts of the GFS at hour 78. Seems to have corrected itself from the 18z run. Baja energy is further east and the kicker from the north is extending further west. This is much more like the 12z run. 

[Mailman]

GFS looking ideal thru 93h.

[TimB]

GFS looks fucking incredible.

[north pgh]

0Z GFS slaps away 18 GFS

[colonel717]

4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

trying to analyze the 500 vorts of the GFS at hour 78. Seems to have corrected itself from the 18z run. Baja energy is further east and the kicker from the north is extending further west. This is much more like the 12z run. 

Had late full capture 

[colonel717]

Every model has 12+. Can't believe it's still 72 hours away. 

[Burghblizz]

[TimB]

Assuming NWS hoists the watch as soon as the full 0z model suite is out, barring something crazy on the euro.

[southpark]

3 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Every model has 12+. Can't believe it's still 72 hours away. 

When do we think Watches will be issued?

[Rd9108]

Just now, Burghblizz said:

I mean everybody wins on that run including the Midatlantic. This is fun

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, southpark said:

When do we think Watches will be issued?

watches are usually issued at the 48 hour mark

[TimB]

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

watches are usually issued at the 48 hour mark

Most offices so far have done it 72 hours out for this one. 

[TimB]

Canadian is warmer but fine. No mixing in the immediate area.

[Mailman]

Mixing on CMC at 0z is not as pronounced as it was on 12z.  Guess I'd call that an improvement.

[PghPirates27]

Anyone else watching penguins flames and tracking the model runs?  And maybe a drink or four?

[Rd9108]

Just now, PghPirates27 said:

Anyone else watching penguins flames and tracking the model runs?  And maybe a drink or four?

That Chinny reminds me of Phil Kessel his shot is deadly.

[Mailman]

[colonel717]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

That Chinny reminds me of Phil Kessel his shot is deadly.

What a steal to get him. Big time talent. 

[TimB]

I would expect to wake up to a winter storm watch unless the euro instills any doubts.