Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

Now that there is a consensus of a storm this weekend, models are all going to differ up until gametime on how much of the southern vort get absorbed. Gonna affect how north or south it goes. Even if every model shows they all fully absorb it, it only matters what happens at gametime and we won't have that answer any sooner. Time for me to stop getting caught up in every different model and run. Too tiring.

[Rd9108]

4 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Now that there is a consensus of a storm this weekend, models are all going to differ up until gametime on how much of the southern vort get absorbed. Gonna affect how north or south it goes. Even if every model shows they all fully absorb it, it only matters what happens at gametime and we won't have that answer any sooner. Time for me to stop getting caught up in every different model and run. Too tiring.

I enjoy it but its more so just checking things. As long as you dont get emotionally invested in every model its fine. It used to piss me off seeing the models changing every run and "being fringed". Now its like meh just less to shovel. 

[colonel717]

GFS and AI GFS made big jumps north.

[Gordo74]

Still have to get it another couple hundred miles north for it to give us anything significant if we're to be in it. Looking more and more east to me.

[Burghblizz]

3 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

Still have to get it another couple hundred miles north for it to give us anything significant if we're to be in it. Looking more and more east to me.

Gfs  a big improvement over 12z. I think the 6” line is back to M/D line in western pa. I think this storm has been talked about so much already, it’s easy to forget  it’s still 4+ days out. 

[Rd9108]

Cleaner phase and we are great 

[colonel717]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Cleaner phase and we are great 

That includes a couple inches for tomorrow. But nice jump north. As Miser said won't know for 3 days.

[Rd9108]

Idk what our ceiling with this honestly but there is clear trend atleast today of precip coming further north.

[Ecanem]

I mean. Isn’t this what we always see? 5 days out the models show 48” Of snow somewhere.  Ends up shifting north and less snow.  Honestly some of these model runs with how much snow they give Deep South. It would be a disaster. 

[colonel717]

EURO north and has the backside snow. 

[colonel717]

[Burghblizz]

5 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

EURO north and has the backside snow. 

It’s shown that elongated backside a few runs

[Rd9108]

Would be totally fine with a foot of snow if the Midatlantic has to get 2. It is what it is. Very difficult to be bullseye in our area and we know that.

 

[Rd9108]

These maps are crazy. I like that the precip shield is so big. 

[colonel717]

59 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

It’s shown that elongated backside a few runs

Agree, but the 12z lost it. Just was quickly saying it's back. 

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

With ratios could be 20+ inches in a few of these.

[SteelCity87]

Does anyone remember how much QPF fell during February 5th-6th 2010 storm? I know we had good ratios but couldn't find any data. 

[Burghblizz]

9 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Does anyone remember how much QPF fell during February 5th-6th 2010 storm? I know we had good ratios but couldn't find any data. 

I believe it was over 2”. It wasn’t a high ratio storm 

[Rd9108]

5 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Does anyone remember how much QPF fell during February 5th-6th 2010 storm? I know we had good ratios but couldn't find any data. 

I feel like that was some heavy snow I had to shovel and not pixie dust. If I remember looking at qpf maps. It was just a qpf bomb. 

[Burghblizz]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I feel like that was some heavy snow I had to shovel and not pixie dust. If I remember looking at qpf maps. It was just a qpf bomb. 

Less clown maps in those days. It was a lot of looking at the QPF and assuming. I remember seeing 2.5” or so modeled at one point.

[SteelCity87]

16 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I feel like that was some heavy snow I had to shovel and not pixie dust. If I remember looking at qpf maps. It was just a qpf bomb. 

Ah ok. For some reason I thought I remembered the temperatures being around 20° but I must be confused. 

[southpark]

17 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I feel like that was some heavy snow I had to shovel and not pixie dust. If I remember looking at qpf maps. It was just a qpf bomb. 

Correct. Lots of qpf with wet, heavy snow that pasted to everything. 

[SteelCity87]

15 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Less clown maps in those days. It was a lot of looking at the QPF and assuming. I remember seeing 2.5” or so modeled at one point.

Haha I remember always trying to take the qpf and predicted temps and looking at the  snow ratio chart haha

[TheClimateChanger]

Some good information from the AFD:

[southpark]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Some good information from the AFD:

Do they not know how to math? Where does the other 10% fall? They only have 90% accounted for?

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, southpark said:

Do they not know how to math? Where does the other 10% fall? They only have 90% accounted for?

Yes, there must be a 10% chance of something other than one of those three scenarios occurring. Maybe a few percent chance of a cutter, and the balance on a northward curve along the coast that is too far east to produce measurable snowfall (i.e., hybrid of cases 1 & 2).

[southpark]

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yes, there must be a 10% chance of something other than one of those three scenarios occurring. Maybe a few percent chance of a cutter, and the balance on a northward curve along the coast that is too far east to produce measurable snowfall (i.e., hybrid of cases 1 & 2).

Their Facebook post actually has option 3 with 30% so that is where I am putting the extra 10%.

[Rd9108]

ICON north of 18z gets more precip north of the PA border. Looks like a warning level event verbatim. Let's see how the gfs fucks this up.