Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

Now that there is a consensus of a storm this weekend, models are all going to differ up until gametime on how much of the southern vort get absorbed. Gonna affect how north or south it goes. Even if every model shows they all fully absorb it, it only matters what happens at gametime and we won't have that answer any sooner. Time for me to stop getting caught up in every different model and run. Too tiring.

[Rd9108]

4 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Now that there is a consensus of a storm this weekend, models are all going to differ up until gametime on how much of the southern vort get absorbed. Gonna affect how north or south it goes. Even if every model shows they all fully absorb it, it only matters what happens at gametime and we won't have that answer any sooner. Time for me to stop getting caught up in every different model and run. Too tiring.

I enjoy it but its more so just checking things. As long as you dont get emotionally invested in every model its fine. It used to piss me off seeing the models changing every run and "being fringed". Now its like meh just less to shovel. 

[colonel717]

GFS and AI GFS made big jumps north.

[Gordo74]

Still have to get it another couple hundred miles north for it to give us anything significant if we're to be in it. Looking more and more east to me.

[Burghblizz]

3 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

Still have to get it another couple hundred miles north for it to give us anything significant if we're to be in it. Looking more and more east to me.

Gfs  a big improvement over 12z. I think the 6” line is back to M/D line in western pa. I think this storm has been talked about so much already, it’s easy to forget  it’s still 4+ days out. 

[Rd9108]

Cleaner phase and we are great 

[colonel717]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Cleaner phase and we are great 

That includes a couple inches for tomorrow. But nice jump north. As Miser said won't know for 3 days.

[Rd9108]

Idk what our ceiling with this honestly but there is clear trend atleast today of precip coming further north.

[Ecanem]

I mean. Isn’t this what we always see? 5 days out the models show 48” Of snow somewhere.  Ends up shifting north and less snow.  Honestly some of these model runs with how much snow they give Deep South. It would be a disaster. 

[colonel717]

EURO north and has the backside snow. 

[colonel717]

[Burghblizz]

5 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

EURO north and has the backside snow. 

It’s shown that elongated backside a few runs

[Rd9108]

Would be totally fine with a foot of snow if the Midatlantic has to get 2. It is what it is. Very difficult to be bullseye in our area and we know that.

 

[Rd9108]

These maps are crazy. I like that the precip shield is so big. 

[colonel717]

59 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

It’s shown that elongated backside a few runs

Agree, but the 12z lost it. Just was quickly saying it's back.