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Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26


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12 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

That's probably how we will have to get snow with a -pna over the next couple weeks. Cold front goes through then you time a follow up wave while you have the cold, then it warms back up, rinse and repeat. 

Didn't we have similar December snows around Christmas a few years ago?

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3 minutes ago, TimB said:

Anyway, from the standpoint of not fretting about whether or not our annual snowfall is declining and just enjoying what we have, yesterday’s most recent NWS forecast just before the snow started was pretty much spot on with where totals ended up. It’s rare that totals get boosted before the event and then we hit them almost exactly.

The did a nice job. I thought it was little aggressive, just because it felt like a moisture starved clipper….but the mid level frontogenesis really produced.  

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Ended up at 8.25" after 3 rounds of lake effect this morning. Now the cold really setting in. Feels a ton like winter. Couldn't be happier. 

That might be the winner for the storm. I haven’t really seen anything today. A few flurries maybe, but honestly it has been hard to tell with blowing snow coming off the roof.


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I saw an 8.8" measurement in NWS PIS (before lake effect), seemed kind of high to me.  The wind and drifting made things difficult to measure.

I had about 5" at midnight on Saturday based on some manner of averaging and trying to find a decent wind-protected spot.  We probably got another 1.5" afterward.

There were some decent rates, at times, but nothing like that 2020 event with 4"/hr.

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Long-term, the warmth has muted somewhat, but the pattern remains pretty hostile.  Still seeing shots of cold with brief hints of 50s preceding them.  More "seasonal" temps, overall.

Seems the -PNA is locking in for the foreseeable.  The other indices might head in the right direction, but until we fix the pacific side, the true snow events and sustained winter might be harder to find.

For a muted Nina that seems about right.  We don't want to see what the long-range EPS and GEPS show, however.  Full latitude ridging and the cold air is scoured out of nearby Canada, but the long-range warm looks have been difficult to trust.

Seems the models want to revert to a more typical Nina base state (of moderate variety or stronger).  Maybe come January we can re-establish a more favorable pattern.

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On 12/14/2025 at 11:43 AM, Rd9108 said:

Didn't we have similar December snows around Christmas a few years ago?

Yes, at least one I remember actually happened on Christmas Eve. Wave developed along a front, front went through, temps dropped and rain turned to snow as the developing wave stalled the front. 

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All we can do over next few weeks is hope something pops up as models/ens don't have much in the way of snow opportunities. We still have some possible snow showers Friday after the front goes through that maybe can whiten us up briefly after the big melt down on Thursday/Friday. Also Canadian looks to try to pop a little something on the 22nd but fails. So something possibly to watch. 

 

Also, something I noticed this week. Looks like Tidbits is way ahead on Pivotal on getting the GFS run out. I always thought Pivotal was ahead of Tidbits on that.

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From Ohio Valley Weather Center: 

[Tue 12/16/25 215pm EST]

Today I will focus on the upper-level pattern at 500 mb (18000 feet).  While there is some let up, focus on the 500 mb heights.  Notice the tendency for higher heights to start building up into Alaska and slowly spreading into Greenland.  

Here is the caption for Friday morning.  Notice the dive of colder air into the area, whereas just a handful of days ago, this was not shown.  Models missed this.  (Inage 1)

image.png.d0b121e7b4f8915b970314c61be8a6ee.png

Notice another piece coming in for Sunday into Monday.  A lobe of cold comes through.  Another instance where the model missed this a few days ago.  Now, it seems to be sensing colder air.  Again, higher heights into Alaska and NW Canada and up into Greenland, a bit.  By no means, perfect, but modest enough to dump a batch of cold air in the region, again.  (Image 2)

image.png.a70442424751e040bf9a7cfdd7ba3c20.png

So, assuming models will indeed miss Friday and catching on now, then missing another piece Sunday/Monday, it is hard to trust models past a handful of days.  So, while it will not be as cold over the next week to ten days, if models are struggling in the medium range, there is no reason to trust models past 6 or 7 days.  

The tendency is for the model to keep the vortex stretched across Canada and central and eastern Russia, which implies colder air to spill into the central and east.  I believe the models are mishandling things, and each subsequent run, the models slowly catch something and once inside 3 or 4 days, you see the change.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Some nice bursts around this morning. I think the most impactful thing though was a flash freeze. Lots of ice on everything. Roads seem mostly OK. 

Looks heavy snow your way. Picked up about half inch so far. Back edge east of me just flurries now. HRRR says could seen snow until around 6pm. 

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18 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Looks like north of city and esp. New Ken and north getting heavy snow. 

Yeah, this caught me off guard. I only caught the end of the heavy burst around 11:15 coming up from the basement. Probably laid down a quick quarter inch that flash froze to everything.

Had to go into the city so Im missing the good stuff back home. Ring camera looks like at least an 3/4 to an inch.

Driving down 28 my car was completly encased in snow and ice, while all the other vehicles were clean around me. Felt like I was in the delorean a time traveling stint lol.

Screenshot_20251219-140110.thumb.png.4503b4a90b0941e6ba797bb418e486e8.png

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10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah, this caught me off guard. I only caught the end of the heavy burst around 11:15 coming up from the basement. Probably laid down a quick quarter inch that flash froze to everything.

Had to go into the city so Im missing the good stuff back home. Ring camera looks like at least an 3/4 to an inch.

Driving down 28 my car was completly encased in snow and ice, while all the other vehicles were clean around me. Felt like I was in the delorean a time traveling stint lol.

 

Looks to be another long band building that should approach North Hills and then your area in a little. You should see over an inch in your area. I have about 1/2 inch and best snows look north of me. 

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Issued by National Weather Service
Pittsburgh, PA
2:27 PM EST Fri, Dec 19, 2025

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a


* Snow Squall Warning for... Northeastern Columbiana County in east central Ohio... Northern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Southern Lawrence County in western Pennsylvania...


* Until 315 PM EST.


* At 227 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line from over East Palestine to over Coraopolis, or along a line from over East Palestine to near Franklin Park, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Flash freeze on roads and rapidly falling visibility due to intense bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds. Wind gusts up to 35 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Travel will become difficult and potentially dangerous within minutes.


* Locations impacted include... Ross Township, McCandless Township, Cranberry, Moon Township, Butler, Franklin Park, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Columbiana, Monaca, East Palestine, Shaler Township, Hampton Township, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Harrison Township, Economy, Ellwood City, Ambridge and Wexford.

This includes the following highways... Parkway North between mile markers 10 and 13. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 68 and 103. Interstate 376 between mile markers 19 and 51. Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 1 and 44.

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SNOW SQUALL WARNING
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025

OHC029-PAC003-007-019-073-192015-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SQ.W.0018.251219T1927Z-251219T2015Z/
227 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
Columbiana County OH-Allegheny County PA-Beaver County PA-Butler
County PA-Lawrence County PA-

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Snow Squall Warning for...
Northeastern Columbiana County in east central Ohio...
Northern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
Butler County in west central Pennsylvania...
Beaver County in western Pennsylvania...
Southern Lawrence County in western Pennsylvania...

* Until 315 PM EST.

* At 227 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
from over East Palestine to over Coraopolis, or along a line from
over East Palestine to near Franklin Park, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Flash freeze on roads and rapidly falling visibility due
to intense bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds. Wind
gusts up to 35 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Travel will become difficult and potentially dangerous
within minutes.

* Locations impacted include...
Ross Township, McCandless Township, Cranberry, Moon Township,
Butler, Franklin Park, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Columbiana, Monaca,
East Palestine, Shaler Township, Hampton Township, New Kensington,
Lower Burrell, Harrison Township, Economy, Ellwood City, Ambridge
and Wexford.
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