Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

12 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

That's probably how we will have to get snow with a -pna over the next couple weeks. Cold front goes through then you time a follow up wave while you have the cold, then it warms back up, rinse and repeat. 

Didn't we have similar December snows around Christmas a few years ago?

[TimB]

Lastly, getting a nice little streamer right now and enhancing the deep winter feel. This is perfect.

[Burghblizz]

3 minutes ago, TimB said:

Anyway, from the standpoint of not fretting about whether or not our annual snowfall is declining and just enjoying what we have, yesterday’s most recent NWS forecast just before the snow started was pretty much spot on with where totals ended up. It’s rare that totals get boosted before the event and then we hit them almost exactly.

The did a nice job. I thought it was little aggressive, just because it felt like a moisture starved clipper….but the mid level frontogenesis really produced.  

[colonel717]

16 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Didn't we have similar December snows around Christmas a few years ago?

We had near 30 inches in Dec 2020. I think it was 3-5 for Christmas that year.

[PghPirates27]

Got under that band for about 2 hours this morning. Picked up another 1.5” or so from that alone. 

[Burghblizz]

13 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Got under that band for about 2 hours this morning. Picked up another 1.5” or so from that alone. 

Nice - I just missed that. Saw it training over some spots. Was wondering what it produced 

[Gordo74]

Ended up at 8.25" after 3 rounds of lake effect this morning. Now the cold really setting in. Feels a ton like winter. Couldn't be happier. 

[MikeB_01]

Ended up at 8.25" after 3 rounds of lake effect this morning. Now the cold really setting in. Feels a ton like winter. Couldn't be happier. 

That might be the winner for the storm. I haven’t really seen anything today. A few flurries maybe, but honestly it has been hard to tell with blowing snow coming off the roof.


.

[jwilson]

I saw an 8.8" measurement in NWS PIS (before lake effect), seemed kind of high to me.  The wind and drifting made things difficult to measure.

I had about 5" at midnight on Saturday based on some manner of averaging and trying to find a decent wind-protected spot.  We probably got another 1.5" afterward.

There were some decent rates, at times, but nothing like that 2020 event with 4"/hr.

[jwilson]

Long-term, the warmth has muted somewhat, but the pattern remains pretty hostile.  Still seeing shots of cold with brief hints of 50s preceding them.  More "seasonal" temps, overall.

Seems the -PNA is locking in for the foreseeable.  The other indices might head in the right direction, but until we fix the pacific side, the true snow events and sustained winter might be harder to find.

For a muted Nina that seems about right.  We don't want to see what the long-range EPS and GEPS show, however.  Full latitude ridging and the cold air is scoured out of nearby Canada, but the long-range warm looks have been difficult to trust.

Seems the models want to revert to a more typical Nina base state (of moderate variety or stronger).  Maybe come January we can re-establish a more favorable pattern.

[colonel717]

Could be a brief burst of snow if this holds together.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

On 12/14/2025 at 11:43 AM, Rd9108 said:

Didn't we have similar December snows around Christmas a few years ago?

Yes, at least one I remember actually happened on Christmas Eve. Wave developed along a front, front went through, temps dropped and rain turned to snow as the developing wave stalled the front. 

[TimB]

That crucial tenth of an inch of snowfall recorded at PIT today assures us of double digits for the month of December for the first time since 2020.

[colonel717]

All we can do over next few weeks is hope something pops up as models/ens don't have much in the way of snow opportunities. We still have some possible snow showers Friday after the front goes through that maybe can whiten us up briefly after the big melt down on Thursday/Friday. Also Canadian looks to try to pop a little something on the 22nd but fails. So something possibly to watch. 

 

Also, something I noticed this week. Looks like Tidbits is way ahead on Pivotal on getting the GFS run out. I always thought Pivotal was ahead of Tidbits on that.

[colonel717]

From Ohio Valley Weather Center: 

[Tue 12/16/25 215pm EST]

Today I will focus on the upper-level pattern at 500 mb (18000 feet).  While there is some let up, focus on the 500 mb heights.  Notice the tendency for higher heights to start building up into Alaska and slowly spreading into Greenland.  

Here is the caption for Friday morning.  Notice the dive of colder air into the area, whereas just a handful of days ago, this was not shown.  Models missed this.  (Inage 1)

Notice another piece coming in for Sunday into Monday.  A lobe of cold comes through.  Another instance where the model missed this a few days ago.  Now, it seems to be sensing colder air.  Again, higher heights into Alaska and NW Canada and up into Greenland, a bit.  By no means, perfect, but modest enough to dump a batch of cold air in the region, again.  (Image 2)

So, assuming models will indeed miss Friday and catching on now, then missing another piece Sunday/Monday, it is hard to trust models past a handful of days.  So, while it will not be as cold over the next week to ten days, if models are struggling in the medium range, there is no reason to trust models past 6 or 7 days.  

The tendency is for the model to keep the vortex stretched across Canada and central and eastern Russia, which implies colder air to spill into the central and east.  I believe the models are mishandling things, and each subsequent run, the models slowly catch something and once inside 3 or 4 days, you see the change.