December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MN Transplant]

19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wonder if 18z gfs can do something. It’s a more progressive look out west so I doubt we get enough cold air push  

I like the massive day 9 trough in CA that was completely absent from 12z.  Really makes me believe in these solutions.

[CAPE]

This is a pretty decent H5 look for ejecting a modest wave from the SW towards the MA with cold air pressing southward. Biggest negative is its a bit early in the season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a pretty decent H5 look for ejecting a modest wave from the SW towards the MA with cold air pressing southward. Biggest negative is its a bit early in the season.

We've gotten snow when there is +300dm over the Aleutian islands and -250dm just south of Greenland on Dec 5.. like never. I look at that map and say the opposite is what we want. Look how there's even 4 cold waves around the N. Pacific RNA (established). 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We've gotten snow when there is +300dm over the Aleutian islands and -250dm just south of Greenland on Dec 5.. like never

Like I said, a bit too early. That said, both the Euro and GFS are hinting at a little something.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Like I said, a bit too early. That said, both the Euro and GFS are hinting at a little something.

I think that's because there's a -EPO a few days before. It takes the US pattern a few days to change after the Pacific changes, but that pattern is going warm. I guess the N. Pacific ridge heading a little polar could keep it cool enough near the Great Lakes. The longer that storm takes to get here, the more likely it is for rain. We want it early while there's still a -EPO in place pushing down a strong High pressure. 

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think that's because there's a -EPO a few days before. It takes the US pattern a few days to change after the Pacific changes, but that pattern is going warm. I guess the N. Pacific ridge heading a little polar could keep it cool enough near the Great Lakes. The longer that storm takes to get here, the more likely it is for rain. We want it early while there's still a -EPO in place pushing down a strong High pressure. 

Reality will be nothing like that map, so no need to fret.