December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Someone remind me…the SOI tanking means a potential bigger winter storm, right?  Strong amplification incoming and stormy.

Be a good case study upcoming in general cause around the 23rd of Nov the SOI dropped,and took out the Nina base state but rose shortly afterwards back towards NINA,so you'd have BN temps towards the middle of Dec but this would be transient because afterwards a few days the SOI would rise again.But the large fall the last few days would tell you it could get rather cold right before X-Mas unlike some of what the models seemingly show,but other teleconnections still play apart

[jaxjagman]

Ill use what the EPS shows,as heights rise into East China/Koreas this should be a warming in the east,BUT during this time the blocking along the Aluetians get shifted into Siberia,this would cause height falls into East Asia,i really think we will have a cold X-Mas,plus the MJO into which seems TO to be maybe in Africa right now maybe or at least western IO

 

[jaxjagman]

But you should see a definite warm up past the Mid of Dec,probably not brutal but AN