December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z HRRR has decent returns over @John1122's and @Shocker0's places. Mix ove TRI.  Snow over SW VA and SE KY. If that stays the same, I would expect MRX and JKL hoist winter wx products tomorrow evening at the very lates...maybe tomorrow morning once the actual axis of precip is determined.

[Carvers Gap]

This kind of shows the idea.  The 3k name is decidedly SE of 12K.  The 18z ICON is north.  I am using the two models which serve me decently well at short range.  They are just about where I can rely on them decently well

 The 18z RGEM is running now.   Similar to 12z.  It has more ZR.  See MRX comments above.

[John1122]

Hard to trust it, but the RAP just delivered big for 40 and North across the forum. Bullseye around Jax. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I would say the 18z Euro ticked SE just a hair too. 

Apologies, I was still comparing the 6z and 12z. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

36 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Hard to trust it, but the RAP just delivered big for 40 and North across the forum. Bullseye around Jax. 

 

Like John said, probably the best run of any model for this potential event so far. An outlier for now. 

[BNAwx]

56 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Hard to trust it, but the RAP just delivered big for 40 and North across the forum. Bullseye around Jax. 

RAP it up.  I’ll take it…

[Carvers Gap]

It would not at all surprise me to see this trend SE or NW.  LOL.  The cold could push more than expected...we have seen that trend on a lot of models at 18z.  OTH, we have all seen systems jog northwest at the last minute.  I need to look at the 500 vort map.  The RAP is a good model.  To some extent, we see that same setup on other models...just not as juicy.  Plenty to track beyond this event as well.  In the valleys, we are trying to get a head start on climatology.  

[Carvers Gap]

46 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

Like John said, probably the best run of any model for this potential event so far. An outlier for now. 

Looks like a little lee side slp???

[Carvers Gap]

MRX noted in their disco that soundings indicate all snow in NE TN but light.  Again, time of day is important.  If this comes in at night, could be frozen for many areas.  

[Carvers Gap]

What is crazy is that the Euro Weeklies had this timeframe as a bullseye before they infamously had an infinite loop of feedback over the Southwest...and pumped crazy temps into the East.  Now, we are tracking a potentially light winter wx event for northern areas of the forum.  I wouldn't be surprised for glaze to show up further south.