December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z HRRR has decent returns over @John1122's and @Shocker0's places. Mix ove TRI.  Snow over SW VA and SE KY. If that stays the same, I would expect MRX and JKL hoist winter wx products tomorrow evening at the very lates...maybe tomorrow morning once the actual axis of precip is determined.

[Carvers Gap]

This kind of shows the idea.  The 3k name is decidedly SE of 12K.  The 18z ICON is north.  I am using the two models which serve me decently well at short range.  They are just about where I can rely on them decently well

 The 18z RGEM is running now.   Similar to 12z.  It has more ZR.  See MRX comments above.

[John1122]

Hard to trust it, but the RAP just delivered big for 40 and North across the forum. Bullseye around Jax. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I would say the 18z Euro ticked SE just a hair too. 

Apologies, I was still comparing the 6z and 12z. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

36 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Hard to trust it, but the RAP just delivered big for 40 and North across the forum. Bullseye around Jax. 

 

Like John said, probably the best run of any model for this potential event so far. An outlier for now. 

[BNAwx]

56 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Hard to trust it, but the RAP just delivered big for 40 and North across the forum. Bullseye around Jax. 

RAP it up.  I’ll take it…