Carvers Gap Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: The 12z ICON is getting on board for potential snow for the area. Plateau and west on it, with west Tennessee being the jackpot zone. Is that a some snow on the front end of the system for this upcoming Saturday night as well? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago The GFS keeps taking a favorable path but it's too warm for those of us in the East, freezing rain to snow mess for the western areas though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Is that a some snow on the front end of the system for this upcoming Saturday night as well? Looks like it's on the borderline for parts of the area. My current forecast is rain and 34. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago This might just be the algorithm for WxBell over-doing this, but interesting.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This might just be the algorithm for WxBell over-doing this, but interesting.... Yeah, probably low Dp at onset. Hopefully we get a stronger push of cold with the follow-up System the 2nd. As is, a rain to snow in upper Valley at the end. If Models are correct, Northern VA and much of West Virginia are going to get buried. Much of Kentucky looks to get a good amount as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Surprised we haven't had more discussion. The 12z GFS and CMC look great in the medium and long range - several good windows. The CMC actually looks good for E TN. Good 12z run so far. Euro is inbound currently. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The 12z Euro is definitely in the CMC camp w/ a flatter wave. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The biggest things I am noticing at 12z are the potential for slp to form as cold front drags its feet across the souther Gulf states. I am also seen very cold air masses that seem to have little difficulty making it to our latitude. The cold air supply in Canada appears ample. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Ah, and one last ironic thing which I am noticing(and mentioned yesterday)....I think there is the danger of suppressed systems due to the strength of these air masses. But the souther stream looks active regardless. If we can get 1-2 systems to connect with the cold, we would be in business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago The late month could be, if everything works well, very epic, even beyond this next two weeks with several potential events. The Euro has the MJO in the low amp/c.o.d into late December/Early January. @GaWx has noted that essentially every low amp pass through 8 has coincided with well BN temps, but that high amp passes were not always cold in the east. East Asia should become more favorable soon, to allow west coast ridging downstream as well. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago We all are guilty of HOT takes. I will be more than happy for this to happen every time I predict warm weather to occur. I have had some good ones, but this might be a winner from last Friday. The pivot away from BN heights over Tenn Valley has voluminous support both in width and depth in the model world. From ensembles to Weeklies....the trend is towards a standing wave SER over the SE. It can be beaten down, but it immediately returns. Maybe I should have clarified. A standing ridge over...Cuba. -> 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We all are guilty of HOT takes. I will be more than happy for this to happen every time I predict warm weather to occur. I have had some good ones, but this might be a winner from last Friday. The pivot away from BN heights over Tenn Valley has voluminous support both in width and depth in the model world. From ensembles to Weeklies....the trend is towards a standing wave SER over the SE. It can be beaten down, but it immediately returns. Maybe I should have clarified. A standing ridge over...Cuba. -> At least you own it brother,lol. Many of us fell for it. The Warmanistas are still trying to twist their reasoning and deny any fails. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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