December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[John1122]

Saw a met today throwing out 1983 as a potential December analog. That was maybe the most frustrating winter month ever in my area at least. It was bitter cold, one day of warmth as a cutter passed, then ice box again. It was below zero on Christmas day. 

It warmed from the low 20s to the 50s early month, and rained 2 inches. Was in the low 40s and low 20s for a day, then it warmed into the 60s and rained an inch. It got very cold on the 19th, snowed a little over an inch with highs in the lower 20s on the 20th. Warmed up to 53 on the 22nd and rained nearly an inch, the bottom fell out and we got a dusting of snow on the 23rd and 24th, it was low single digits for highs on Christmas, with teens below zero lows. Dry as a chip. The high was 7 on the 26th, 24/2 on the 27th, it shot up to 48 on the 28th and rained again, just over an inch. That was ahead of another super potent cold front. Temps crashed behind it, it was 44 at midnight the 29th, and it fell to 2 by 11:00pm. It was negative 7 the morning of the 30th, and highs on New Years eve were in the teens. Through all that week of cold, we got around an inch and a half of snow but with that inch of rain in the few hours we were above freezing. 

 

All in all, December was around 8 to 9 degrees below normal,  we had almost 7 inches of precipitation, but barely managed 2 inches or so of snow to show for it, with less than that in some areas. It's the ultimate month that shows that no matter how perfect things should be with well BN temps and well AN precip, we're prone to getting shafted on snowfall. 

[jaxjagman]

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

Saw a met today throwing out 1983 as a potential December analog. That was maybe the most frustrating winter month ever in my area at least. It was bitter cold, one day of warmth as a cutter passed, then ice box again. It was below zero on Christmas day. 

It warmed from the low 20s to the 50s early month, and rained 2 inches. Was in the low 40s and low 20s for a day, then it warmed into the 60s and rained an inch. It got very cold on the 19th, snowed a little over an inch with highs in the lower 20s on the 20th. Warmed up to 53 on the 22nd and rained nearly an inch, the bottom fell out and we got a dusting of snow on the 23rd and 24th, it was low single digits for highs on Christmas, with teens below zero lows. Dry as a chip. The high was 7 on the 26th, 24/2 on the 27th, it shot up to 48 on the 28th and rained again, just over an inch. That was ahead of another super potent cold front. Temps crashed behind it, it was 44 at midnight the 29th, and it fell to 2 by 11:00pm. It was negative 7 the morning of the 30th, and highs on New Years eve were in the teens. Through all that week of cold, we got around an inch and a half of snow but with that inch of rain in the few hours we were above freezing. 

 

All in all, December was around 8 to 9 degrees below normal,  we had almost 7 inches of precipitation, but barely managed 2 inches or so of snow to show for it, with less than that in some areas. It's the ultimate month that shows that no matter how perfect things should be with well BN temps and well AN precip, we're prone to getting shafted on snowfall. 

BOM has the reconstructed MJO back to 1975 here,i know you look at analogs all the time maybe that can help out some

 

https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

[jaxjagman]

Euro backed off from any SSW upcoming with not much of any wind reversal to what its been showing.JMA has the temps around -65C which is around what the Euro shows last update,Euro only shows the temps will get close to -60C in 10 days,so right now no SSW just some weakening,least not right now

[Daniel Boone]

11 hours ago, John1122 said:

Saw a met today throwing out 1983 as a potential December analog. That was maybe the most frustrating winter month ever in my area at least. It was bitter cold, one day of warmth as a cutter passed, then ice box again. It was below zero on Christmas day. 

It warmed from the low 20s to the 50s early month, and rained 2 inches. Was in the low 40s and low 20s for a day, then it warmed into the 60s and rained an inch. It got very cold on the 19th, snowed a little over an inch with highs in the lower 20s on the 20th. Warmed up to 53 on the 22nd and rained nearly an inch, the bottom fell out and we got a dusting of snow on the 23rd and 24th, it was low single digits for highs on Christmas, with teens below zero lows. Dry as a chip. The high was 7 on the 26th, 24/2 on the 27th, it shot up to 48 on the 28th and rained again, just over an inch. That was ahead of another super potent cold front. Temps crashed behind it, it was 44 at midnight the 29th, and it fell to 2 by 11:00pm. It was negative 7 the morning of the 30th, and highs on New Years eve were in the teens. Through all that week of cold, we got around an inch and a half of snow but with that inch of rain in the few hours we were above freezing. 

 

All in all, December was around 8 to 9 degrees below normal,  we had almost 7 inches of precipitation, but barely managed 2 inches or so of snow to show for it, with less than that in some areas. It's the ultimate month that shows that no matter how perfect things should be with well BN temps and well AN precip, we're prone to getting shafted on snowfall. 

Yep. It was a frustrating Month. Overall cold but precip almost all fell in the warmups. High of Zero on Christmas for coldest on Record. Not a flake of Snow !

[Met1985]

5 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro backed off from any SSW upcoming with not much of any wind reversal to what its been showing.JMA has the temps around -65C which is around what the Euro shows last update,Euro only shows the temps will get close to -60C in 10 days,so right now no SSW just some weakening,least not right now

Im getting conflicting data. I just saw a post that said the 00z EPS looks like a go for wind reversal.  Although the PV being in a weakened state works as well.

[Met1985]

From Allan Huffman.

Well for all you #SSWE people out there. Today's 00z EPS showed all members (100%) showing a 10mb U wind reversal over the north pole around 11/28 to 11/29. The implications, are enhanced blocking risk in December and the possibility that the SPV will be further receptive to weakening later in the Winter which could influence the mid/late Winter.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[jaxjagman]

38 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

From Allan Huffman.

Well for all you #SSWE people out there. Today's 00z EPS showed all members (100%) showing a 10mb U wind reversal over the north pole around 11/28 to 11/29. The implications, are enhanced blocking risk in December and the possibility that the SPV will be further receptive to weakening later in the Winter which could influence the mid/late Winter.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

 

39 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

From Allan Huffman.

Well for all you #SSWE people out there. Today's 00z EPS showed all members (100%) showing a 10mb U wind reversal over the north pole around 11/28 to 11/29. The implications, are enhanced blocking risk in December and the possibility that the SPV will be further receptive to weakening later in the Winter which could influence the mid/late Winter.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I seen that this morning,

[jaxjagman]

The map he showed was the OZ,i assume early this morning,mine was yesterday afternoon,so it must have changed between