MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 54 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The first week of December is warming on guidance. MJO, teleconnections forecasts are all moving to warm phases. I don’t get the excitement at all. MJO phase 7 in November is actually N to cold but we are moving into December as we settle into that phase. I think this is leading to some false cold signals on guidance. Of course I’m speaking wrt where most of us live—close to the coast. The modeling showing more ridging in the SE and cold dumping over the central CONUS is much more in line with the tapestry of MJO phase 7 in December. That's what the models are showing. Models are getting colder for the first week thanks to the negative epo. Mjo is on the way through 7 into 8 through December. Bigger press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Lol..thanks for keeping it real. Just take the opposite of whatever the Pope says, and you’ll be pretty close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, kdxken said: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The first snowfall appears to be the night of Dec 4th into the 5th. Everything honing in on that time period Dec 5. Just like the good ole days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, dendrite said: Dec 5. Just like the good ole days. Used to be a special snowy day . Miss those days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's what the models are showing. Models are getting colder for the first week thanks to the negative epo. Mjo is on the way through 7 into 8 through December. Bigger press. Better hope it’s not the 6z gfs or AI stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago On 11/18/2025 at 12:31 PM, dendrite said: Check out those dews in CT This didn’t age well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Better hope it’s not the 6z gfs or AI stuff AI has been getting colder also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This didn’t age well. Didn’t expect it to. But it’s a couple days later now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: AI has been getting colder also I meant for a sheared POS well to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, dendrite said: Didn’t expect it to. But it’s a couple days later now. 60F temps or a tad higher tomorrow for wolfie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, dendrite said: Didn’t expect it to. But it’s a couple days later now. And even that is muting and shrinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, CoastalWx said: 60F temps or a tad higher tomorrow for wolfie. One day…as we thought. And I’m fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The dews were always for a day ahead of a couple of cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Didn’t expect it to. But it’s a couple days later now. A DP of 48 and 61 are worlds apart…as I said, shrinking and muting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago lol. Front is through at that point, but it’s a week out. Whatever helps you sleep. A dew of 55° as we enter December isn’t the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: The dews were always for a day ahead of a couple of cutters. Sure, But the bigger take away is that they’ve shrunk way way back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago If we got an amped up cutter it could end up 60/60. What difference does it make in the scheme of things? Either it snows or it’s some varying temp of rain over bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: A DP of 48 and 61 are worlds apart…as I said, shrinking and muting. Like a Helen Keller dong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: lol. Front is through at that point, but it’s a week out. Whatever helps you sleep. A dew of 55° as we enter December isn’t the end of the world. No one is saying that…but the point is you were busting balls(and that’s fine)…but that prog won’t even be close to happening like it showed on the 29th now. And a couple days later has cooled significantly as well, and that’s a week out still, so that is still in question too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Like a Helen Keller dong? Precisely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago We’ll have plenty of chances of 60 dews coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WinterWolf said: No one is saying that…but the point is you were busting balls(and that’s fine)…but that prog won’t even be close to happening like it showed on the 29th now. And a couple days later had cooled significantly as well, and that’s a week out still, so that is still in question too. lol you’re trying to bump troll me with a d11 op run of dews that I was only trolling with to begin with. The timing may be different, but we’re in line for some warm sectors regardless. But whatev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: If we got an amped up cutter it could end up 60/60. What difference does it make in the scheme of things? Either it snows or it’s some varying temp of rain over bare ground. The difference is…the prog was way wrong. And the new prog is substantially cooler now than it was a few days ago. That’s the takeaway. If it makes you sleep better to not admit that, that’s cool too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: lol you’re trying to bump troll me with a d11 op run of dews that I was only trolling with to begin with. The timing may be different, but we’re in line for some warm sectors regardless. But whatev. And Why is it ok for you to troll me with a day 11 op? So when I give it back to you, you got a million excuses for why it’s not so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I was just going through my analogs and I found the dew on 12/1 is critical for the upcoming winter. If it’s 52° or over Southington averages 20” of snow. If it’s under 52° they average 70”. So this will be critical tracking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The difference is…the prog was way wrong. And the new prog is substantially cooler now than it was a few days ago. That’s the takeaway. If it makes you sleep better to not admit that, that’s cool too. I sleep like shit every night because my cat crawls on my face at 5am wanting food. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: A DP of 48 and 61 are worlds apart…as I said, shrinking and muting. Should help preserve the snowpack a bit more? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I was just going through my analogs and I found the dew on 12/1 is critical for the upcoming winter. If it’s 52° or over Southington averages 20” of snow. If it’s under 52° they average 70”. So this will be critical tracking. You’re funny bro…but it’s cool. Anyway..guidance is cooling, which is good to see. We’ll have some opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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