E MDR AEW: models support Car. TCG next wk

[GaWx]

 All 12Z ops (except CMC’s near Leewards) have shifted actual (or imminent in case of UK) TCG from the prior favored E of Car to the C Car, which matches favored climo. TCG there would be ~10/20-10/23.
Check out the 12Z EPS, which has a whopping 18 H (36%) with 11 in the dangerous W Car and 7 recurving in SW ATL:

 

Climo:

10/11-20 TCG:

10/21-31 TCG:

[NorthHillsWx]

Wouldn’t it be something if we make it through peak season and October and get our only US hurricane landfall in November

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wouldn’t it be something if we make it through peak season and October and get our only US hurricane landfall in November

Latest on record first Conus H impact of season is 10/20 (1853). Next is 10/18 of 1968.

[WxWatcher007]

Probably comes about too late for my peak season forecast 

[cptcatz]

20 years ago today Hurricane Wilma formed and became the most intense hurricane ever in the atlantic basin. Just saying...

[NorthHillsWx]

Someone needs to take the GFS out back and put it down like old yeller

[GaWx]

0Z
Icon: big change from prior runs with virtually no sfc low and the main part of its H5 vorticity recurves sharply into Haiti

It almost looks like a split with something else weak going into SW Caribbean headed for Nicaragua/Costa Rica.

UKMET still has yet to have a run with a TCG in the Caribbean from this.

CMC: has yet to have a TCG in the Caribbean as it once again has TCG E of the Car that heads through the Lesser Antilles; ends in W Caribbean as a weakening low

GFS: TCG S of Dom. Republic; moves slowly N to E tip of Dom. Republic and then accelerates NNE OTS

Euro: it again pretty similarly takes its time as prior runs with a TCG not til ~10/23-4 in SW Caribbean with a N move to W. Jamaica and C. Cuba followed by NNE recurve to C. Bahamas. Cat 2 H C Cuba to C Bahamas.

At 2AM and 8AM, it still didn’t make the TWO.

[konksw]

15 hours ago, cptcatz said:

20 years ago today Hurricane Wilma formed and became the most intense hurricane ever in the atlantic basin. Just saying...

During one of the most active and destructive seasons on record lol 

[GaWx]

12Z:
Icon joining the consensus turning it sharply right as it goes into DR after forming in E Caribbean; also very weak entire run

CMC once again is the only model with a TCG E of the Lesser Antilles; TS goes through Windwards; it like the Icon joins the consensus turning it sharply right as it, too, goes N over DR. Then the weakened main part moves NE toward Bermuda

GFS forms in E Caribbean and then moves N over PR followed by turn to NE/OTS

UKMET text again shows no TCG through day 7 but again a sfc low is there (1007 mb) that’s further S than 0Z with it 300 miles S of Jamaica moving slowly W at 168; so this not turning right by 168 is exception so far of 12Z operationals

JMA only out to 72 so far (inconclusive)

Euro is next

 

[GaWx]

 This just made the TWO for first time (0/20):

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the tropical central Atlantic is
expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several
days. Some slow development of this system is possible when
it reaches the central portion of the Caribbean Sea by the middle
part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cptcatz]

4 hours ago, konksw said:

During one of the most active and destructive seasons on record lol 

True but we also had two category 5's this year, two category 5's last year, and the boiling caribbean hasn't been remotely touched this year. So it's entirely safe to say that if atmospheric conditions allow, something could easily blow up in caribbean in late October. 

[GaWx]

 Fwiw due to it being way out in fantasyland, the 12Z Euro has Mitch-like/Eta-like/Iota-like flooding in N Honduras as it stalls just to the N of Honduras for a few days and intensifies followed by E and then ENE/NE movement to W of Jamaica headed toward C Cuba at the end as a trough picks it up.

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS has a piece of energy in the sw Caribbean that competes with the energy coming in from the east.  That also causes it to stop much earlier and end up much farther northeast.  The Euro, on the other hand, has the main wave remaining the dominant energy, and also has stronger ridging to the north, which keeps the system moving westward.

[Amped]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS has a piece of energy in the sw Caribbean that competes with the energy coming in from the east.  That also causes it to stop much earlier and end up much farther northeast.  The Euro, on the other hand, has the main wave remaining the dominant energy, and also has stronger ridging to the north, which keeps the system moving westward.

Strangely the GFS has a second storm forming in the central Caribbean, so the GFS and Euro end up with a similar look at 348 hrs.

Edit: The first storm on the GFS bombs out over PR in like 40kts of shear. Maybe it has a valid reason for doing this, but its a tough solution to believe at this point.