Two new lemons

[bigtenfan]

Any thoughts?

[Prospero]

33 mph gust in Gulfport, FL a few minutes ago. That's more than Imelda brought which was a very nice steady breeze.

I looked at NOAA and was surprised to see a lemon!

[WxWatcher007]

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible. 

[Prospero]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible. 

Is the swamp hot enough to feed a low over some land?

The breeze feels good, we've had rain up here so not complaining for this year. Last year was a nightmare right now.

 

[WEATHER53]

Many times in the mid Atlantic we get our first tropucal  influence about 5 days after the first real cool shot moves out. The first cool one is over us  right now and I’m curious to see what happens next 

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible. 

Regarding the MDR lemon:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the 
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with 
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow 
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Jelsema

———————

I didn’t post it. But the 12Z UKMET had a TC form from this at 162 hours and it was already recurving/moving NW to 23.7N, 57.2W at 168.

 The new UKMET (0Z) forms it 18 hours earlier and it moves WNW instead of NW meaning it ends up much further S than the 12Z run had it at the end of the run (~150 miles NE of the Leewards):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 53.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2025 132 15.7N 53.2W 1009 40
0000UTC 09.10.2025 144 17.5N 56.5W 1009 39
1200UTC 09.10.2025 156 18.8N 59.3W 1009 34
0000UTC 10.10.2025 168 19.7N 61.4W 1008 31

[NorthHillsWx]

The eastern lemon has excellent model support for development but will be another recurve 

[NC US Geological Survice]

Eastern one now a pumpkin.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The eastern lemon has excellent model support for development but will be another recurve 

 It would almost certainly be a miss of the Conus if it were to be a TC E of 55W per history. There hasn’t been on record even one TC existing E of 55W after October 4th that made it all of the way to the Conus! (I’ve checked all of the years.) That doesn’t mean it’s impossible and that it won’t eventually happen. But that does mean the chance is tiny.

 OTOH, it is were to be very slow to develop and wait, say, til near the Lesser Antilles or further W, then there would no longer be the near certainty of a Conus miss. It might then still be a likelihood but not a near certainty looking from this far out.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, NC US Geological Survice said:

Eastern one now a pumpkin.

Regarding the pumpkin:

12Z UKMET: 3rd in a row with TCG from this; similar TCG to prior run but moves NW instead of WNW and thus ends up further N than prior run although not quite as far N as two runs ago; Also this one has it become declassified at 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.6N 54.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2025 132 17.8N 56.3W 1009 36
1200UTC 09.10.2025 144 19.9N 59.3W 1010 30
0000UTC 10.10.2025 156 21.8N 61.2W 1009 29
1200UTC 10.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro for the “pumpkin”:

no TC til ~192 hours when it’s 1005 mb that’s ~125 miles N of PR. But it’s already recurving sharply then and never gets stronger than 1005 mb til it gets to 30N way out in the middle of the ocean.

————

2PM TWO up to 0/50:

2. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa. The wave 
is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some 
slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical 
depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end 
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS for pumpkin:

only one of 30 hits Conus (hits S FL as a hurricane) and that’s because it is the furthest SW member (at Barbados) as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. The rest are at that time from PR to the Leewards (~50%) with ~50% at that time well NE of the Leewards:

 Here’s when that one member hits S FL. The one at the Outer Banks is from a NW Caribbean system:

 

 Edit: I don’t think any 12Z EPS are hitting the CONUS. If there are any, I can’t tell.

[GaWx]

 The UKMET (2nd run in a row) has the Bahamas lemon become a TC:

The 0Z UKMET has itbecome a TD at 168, when it is in the NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.1N 77.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 168 26.1N 77.8W 1007 33

[GaWx]

For the pumpkin

0Z UK: similar to 12Z with the recurve

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.2N 53.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2025 108 15.2N 53.0W 1009 36
0000UTC 09.10.2025 120 17.2N 56.5W 1010 32
1200UTC 09.10.2025 132 19.0N 59.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 10.10.2025 144 20.1N 61.4W 1010 26
1200UTC 10.10.2025 156 21.4N 62.9W 1010 29
0000UTC 11.10.2025 168 23.2N 63.8W 1009 27

[GaWx]

Pumpkin: 

12Z UKMET dropped the FL TC but still has this though it doesn’t form til 162, moving WNW to the SSW of Bermuda:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.7N 67.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 168 23.0N 68.5W 1009 24

——————-

12Z Icon 933 mb at 180 but getting ready to recurve; SE US being partially protected by TS S FL from the lemon though would very likely recurve safely even without that since overall pattern shouldn't allow it to get close:

 

 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Pumpkin: 

12Z UKMET dropped the FL TC but still has this though it doesn’t form til 162, moving WNW to the SSW of Bermuda:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.7N 67.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 168 23.0N 68.5W 1009 24

——————-

12Z Icon 933 mb at 180 but getting ready to recurve; SE US being partially protected by TS S FL from the lemon though would very likely recurve safely even without that since overall pattern shouldn't allow it to get close:

 

 

Pattern of re-curvature has been so persistent this season.  Nothing even within striking distance so far.  Any U.S. threat for balance of the season will have to come out of the Caribbean.  Said this about two months ago and I'm holding to it.