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95L


bigtenfan
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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible. 

Is the swamp hot enough to feed a low over some land? ;)

The breeze feels good, we've had rain up here so not complaining for this year. Last year was a nightmare right now.

 

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10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible. 

Regarding the MDR lemon:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the 
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with 
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow 
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Jelsema

———————

I didn’t post it. But the 12Z UKMET had a TC form from this at 162 hours and it was already recurving/moving NW to 23.7N, 57.2W at 168.

 The new UKMET (0Z) forms it 18 hours earlier and it moves WNW instead of NW meaning it ends up much further S than the 12Z run had it at the end of the run (~150 miles NE of the Leewards):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 53.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2025 132 15.7N 53.2W 1009 40
0000UTC 09.10.2025 144 17.5N 56.5W 1009 39
1200UTC 09.10.2025 156 18.8N 59.3W 1009 34
0000UTC 10.10.2025 168 19.7N 61.4W 1008 31

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4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The eastern lemon has excellent model support for development but will be another recurve 

 It would almost certainly be a miss of the Conus if it were to be a TC E of 55W per history. There hasn’t been on record even one TC existing E of 55W after October 4th that made it all of the way to the Conus! (I’ve checked all of the years.) That doesn’t mean it’s impossible and that it won’t eventually happen. But that does mean the chance is tiny.

 OTOH, it is were to be very slow to develop and wait, say, til near the Lesser Antilles or further W, then there would no longer be the near certainty of a Conus miss. It might then still be a likelihood but not a near certainty looking from this far out.

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4 hours ago, NC US Geological Survice said:

Eastern one now a pumpkin.

Regarding the pumpkin:

12Z UKMET: 3rd in a row with TCG from this; similar TCG to prior run but moves NW instead of WNW and thus ends up further N than prior run although not quite as far N as two runs ago; Also this one has it become declassified at 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.6N 54.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2025 132 17.8N 56.3W 1009 36
1200UTC 09.10.2025 144 19.9N 59.3W 1010 30
0000UTC 10.10.2025 156 21.8N 61.2W 1009 29
1200UTC 10.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING

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The 12Z Euro for the “pumpkin”:

no TC til ~192 hours when it’s 1005 mb that’s ~125 miles N of PR. But it’s already recurving sharply then and never gets stronger than 1005 mb til it gets to 30N way out in the middle of the ocean.

————

2PM TWO up to 0/50:

2. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa. The wave 
is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some 
slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical 
depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end 
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Berg

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12Z GEFS for pumpkin:

only one of 30 hits Conus (hits S FL as a hurricane) and that’s because it is the furthest SW member (at Barbados) as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. The rest are at that time from PR to the Leewards (~50%) with ~50% at that time well NE of the Leewards:

 Here’s when that one member hits S FL. The one at the Outer Banks is from a NW Caribbean system:

IMG_4725.thumb.png.67e91b6f1cc4608a311846334fd02bfd.png
 

 Edit: I don’t think any 12Z EPS are hitting the CONUS. If there are any, I can’t tell.

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 The UKMET (2nd run in a row) has the Bahamas lemon become a TC:

The 0Z UKMET has itbecome a TD at 168, when it is in the NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.1N 77.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 168 26.1N 77.8W 1007 33

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For the pumpkin

0Z UK: similar to 12Z with the recurve

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.2N 53.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2025 108 15.2N 53.0W 1009 36
0000UTC 09.10.2025 120 17.2N 56.5W 1010 32
1200UTC 09.10.2025 132 19.0N 59.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 10.10.2025 144 20.1N 61.4W 1010 26
1200UTC 10.10.2025 156 21.4N 62.9W 1010 29
0000UTC 11.10.2025 168 23.2N 63.8W 1009 27

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Pumpkin: 

12Z UKMET dropped the FL TC but still has this though it doesn’t form til 162, moving WNW to the SSW of Bermuda:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.7N 67.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 168 23.0N 68.5W 1009 24

——————-

12Z Icon 933 mb at 180 but getting ready to recurve; SE US being partially protected by TS S FL from the lemon though would very likely recurve safely even without that since overall pattern shouldn't allow it to get close:

IMG_4733.thumb.png.3c3bc541441c68986459653c01989fd2.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Pumpkin: 

12Z UKMET dropped the FL TC but still has this though it doesn’t form til 162, moving WNW to the SSW of Bermuda:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.7N 67.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 168 23.0N 68.5W 1009 24

——————-

12Z Icon 933 mb at 180 but getting ready to recurve; SE US being partially protected by TS S FL from the lemon though would very likely recurve safely even without that since overall pattern shouldn't allow it to get close:

IMG_4733.thumb.png.3c3bc541441c68986459653c01989fd2.png

 

 

Pattern of re-curvature has been so persistent this season.  Nothing even within striking distance so far.  Any U.S. threat for balance of the season will have to come out of the Caribbean.  Said this about two months ago and I'm holding to it.

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4 hours ago, MANDA said:

Pattern of re-curvature has been so persistent this season.  Nothing even within striking distance so far.  Any U.S. threat for balance of the season will have to come out of the Caribbean.  Said this about two months ago and I'm holding to it.

 How soon folks forget about Chantal, which caused record flooding in parts of NC. Also, Erin missed NC by only 200 miles and caused storm surge flooding as well as TS winds on OB. There have been many full years that had less impacts than 2025 on the E coast.

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18Z Icon has lemon as a TD near S FL and pumpkin as TS E of Leewards at 120:

IMG_4735.thumb.png.8e4b60a3f31b4f2e032475e6a77763be.png
 

Edit for other 18Z:

-GFS has a hurricane turn sharply 200 miles E of Leewards as it recurves

-Euro is again very weak and has no TC through 144

———Edit for 0Z 10/5 UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.3N  57.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 09.10.2025  108  15.9N  59.3W     1009            33
    0000UTC 10.10.2025  120  17.2N  61.9W     1007            34
    1200UTC 10.10.2025  132  18.2N  64.5W     1007            34
    0000UTC 11.10.2025  144  19.6N  66.7W     1005            41
    1200UTC 11.10.2025  156  21.3N  68.0W     1003            44
    0000UTC 12.10.2025  168  23.9N  68.4W     1000            48
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  • bigtenfan changed the title to Eastern Atlantic Orange 60% chance
 This is now Invest 95L:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo 
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the 
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward 
Islands by the latter part of this week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

@bigtenfan

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17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 How soon folks forget about Chantal, which caused record flooding in parts of NC. Also, Erin missed NC by only 200 miles and caused storm surge flooding as well as TS winds on OB. There have been many full years that had less impacts than 2025 on the E coast.

Sorry, maybe I should have been more clear.  Was referencing MDR stuff with persistent re-curvature.  Nothing from MDR has presented with a U.S. landfall threat.  Erin was 200 miles away but only the notable large size and intensity made it more impactful than it would have been.  Still the fact is all MDR action has re-curved OTS.

Chantal was a home brew deal.  I was strictly referring to MDR activity in my post.

Screenshot 2025-10-05 at 11.16.06 AM.jpg

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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Sorry, maybe I should have been more clear.  Was referencing MDR stuff with persistent re-curvature.  Nothing from MDR has presented with a U.S. landfall threat.  Erin was 200 miles away but only the notable large size and intensity made it more impactful than it would have been.  Still the fact is all MDR action has re-curved OTS.

Chantal was a home brew deal.  I was strictly referring to MDR activity in my post.

Screenshot 2025-10-05 at 11.16.06 AM.jpg

And pretty much all of this seasons ACE comes from your circle 

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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Sorry, maybe I should have been more clear.  Was referencing MDR stuff with persistent re-curvature.  Nothing from MDR has presented with a U.S. landfall threat.  Erin was 200 miles away but only the notable large size and intensity made it more impactful than it would have been.  Still the fact is all MDR action has re-curved OTS.

Chantal was a home brew deal.  I was strictly referring to MDR activity in my post.

Screenshot 2025-10-05 at 11.16.06 AM.jpg

Thanks for clarifying. Regarding MDR activity, 2025 sort of reminds me of a quieter version of these 3 years of the current active era that had all MDR TC origins recurve safely from the Conus:

1995: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Emily); was also La Niña

tracks-at-1995.png

 

2010: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Earl); was also La Nina

tracks-at-2010.png

 

2023: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Lee)

tracks-at-2023.png

 

and similar to 2014: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Bertha)

tracks-at-2014.png

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26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

And pretty much all of this seasons ACE comes from your circle 

Yes and about 65% of seasonal ACE comes from Erin and Humberto and 85% of seasonal ACE to date comes from 3 storms when you add Gabrielle to the mix.  Strange season as you said.

Still think we have a shot at a Cat. 3 U.S. hit coming out of the Caribbean in one form or another before the season ends.  Florida most at risk of that IMO.  A north gulf coast hit from a major seems iffy at best at this point.  Most likely anything that approached would have to battle drier air and shear.

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19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for clarifying. Regarding MDR activity, 2025 sort of reminds me of a quieter version of these 3 years of the current active era that had all MDR TC origins recurve safely from the Conus:

1995: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Emily); was also La Niña

tracks-at-1995.png

 

2010: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Earl); was also La Nina

tracks-at-2010.png

 

2023: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Lee)

tracks-at-2023.png

 

and similar to 2014: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Bertha)

tracks-at-2014.png

Remember those seasons well.  Especially 1995 with Felix.  He tried hard to get back to the coast but no cigar.  All the others from the MDR stayed safely out.

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12Z UKMET: further SW than 0Z as it goes WNW to Leewards and PR followed by NW and then NNW turn to near Erin’s position NE of Turks/Caicos (pretty weak and a little weaker than 0Z) with a safe recurve from the Conus as it is taken out by an upper trough:

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.6N  53.2W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 09.10.2025   84  14.2N  55.1W     1009            36
    1200UTC 09.10.2025   96  15.4N  58.6W     1009            37
    0000UTC 10.10.2025  108  16.5N  61.9W     1008            33
    1200UTC 10.10.2025  120  17.1N  64.7W     1009            34
    0000UTC 11.10.2025  132  18.9N  67.3W     1008            33
    1200UTC 11.10.2025  144  20.5N  69.1W     1008            38
    0000UTC 12.10.2025  156  22.3N  70.6W     1007            34
    1200UTC 12.10.2025  168  24.2N  71.4W     1006            33

————-

Edit: Does anyone know how to save an image from Pivotal if not a member without having to do a screenshot?

IMG_4751.thumb.png.c23676157c552f83ffa97db5a9ec8362.png

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  • Scott747 changed the title to 95L

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