Pittsburgh PA Fall 2025 Thread

[Burghblizz]

On 11/20/2025 at 9:43 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

It's been an incredible 1,348 days since the last calendar day with 4" of snow. You have to think eventually that breaks, or do you guys think it is no longer possible to see 4" of snow in a single day at PIT?

Lol - “no longer possible”.

Calendar day records can be deceiving for obvious reasons. Obviously, this is a sign of slow stretches overall. But nothing helps to inflate “last time since” like a calendar day view. I can see why you like them. 

For example - the stretch leading up to ‘92 was (anecdotally) the slowest of my lifetime. The good news is that just like the ‘78 stretch, epic weather broke out after that.

That ‘92 storm was great and disappointing all in one. There was a thump with a primary low, and a bomb on the coastal that was far enough south that it looked to hammer us as it came up the coast. But it was just a tick east. So the airport total was way low. City got a foot, 12-18” southeast, with 3’ in the ridges. It would be a “what could have been” storm if this board existed. But there were places in the southern and eastern suburbs that went on to crack 15” 3 times over the next 13 months. 

[Rd9108]

Ill be the one to post the first weenie map of the season. Sure it will change 15 times between now and then. 

[blackngoldrules]

Ill be the one to post the first weenie map of the season. Sure it will change 15 times between now and then. 

I'll add the latest Euro for roughly the same time frame. Much less weenie but still a nice amount to look at.

Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

[PghPirates27]

I’d actually take that Euro lol

[Rd9108]

Be careful out there. Accidents everywhere, ice everywhere. I had to ditch my car and walk a few minutes to get to my house. 

[blackngoldrules]

I don't know how this next system is going to turn out for us, but at least we already have something to track. GFS gives the weenie amounts while Euro gives us little. Others are somewhere in between the two. Should be interesting to see how this one evolves. I'm also just trying to get the page more active again. Lol

Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

[Rd9108]

Yeah I dont trust that we just miss on the system. Early in the season so any snow is a bonus. Sunday maybe a mess for a bit before the changeover. NAM shows it barely getting above freezing when the best precip is in the area. We know how the warmth always seems to win though. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Officially, on the board at that airport:

[Mailman]

First respectable snow within five days, it seems.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I feel like I've been asleep at the wheel, just getting caught up on the upcoming threats. 

It was nice to have a cold / snowy Thanksgiving. Looking forward to tracking with everyone this season.

[Burghblizz]

38 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I feel like I've been asleep at the wheel, just getting caught up on the upcoming threats. 

It was nice to have a cold / snowy Thanksgiving. Looking forward to tracking with everyone this season.

That’s not a bad thing. I’m trying to limit my investment until inside 72 hours of a threat (yet here I am)

[blackngoldrules]

Yeah I dont trust that we just miss on the system. Early in the season so any snow is a bonus. Sunday maybe a mess for a bit before the changeover. NAM shows it barely getting above freezing when the best precip is in the area. We know how the warmth always seems to win though. 

We've learned over the years that the models almost always underdo that "WTOD" and we're on the edge right now.

Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

[Rd9108]

7 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

We've learned over the years that the models almost always underdo that "WTOD" and we're on the edge right now.

Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk
 

Depends on the model you look at. GFS is on its own with its NW solution. Most of the models have the weaker and south solutions. It's a fine line if we want better snows. Regardless as of now it looks like tuesday has a high potential to give us pur first real accumulating snow. 

[Ahoff]

Numbers from the NWS for through 7pm Tuesday is for 3" and high end is for 5".

[blackngoldrules]

Depends on the model you look at. GFS is on its own with its NW solution. Most of the models have the weaker and south solutions. It's a fine line if we want better snows. Regardless as of now it looks like tuesday has a high potential to give us pur first real accumulating snow. 

Yeah, the more I looked at them, the more I can see the precip type might actually not be an issue with this one for a change. As of now. GFS looks like it backed off of that too. I'll take a lighter event all snow over a potentially heavier event, but you're sweating it out about the warm air pushing in.

Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Looks like we are honing in on a 2-4 type deal. Not bad for early December if it plays out that way 

We lost our oldest dog in early November this year, playing in the snow made him so happy. No doubt taking the other 2 out to play will be bitter sweet for the first real accumulating event.

[north pgh]

7 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Looks like we are honing in on a 2-4 type deal. Not bad for early December if it plays out that way 

We lost our oldest dog in early November this year, playing in the snow made him so happy. No doubt taking the other 2 out to play will be bitter sweet for the first real accumulating event.

Yes 2-4, 3-5 looking more likely. It will be nice to have some decent snow on the ground early this winter for a change, 

So sorry about your pup. It’s never easy losing them. 

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, north pgh said:

Yes 2-4, 3-5 looking more likely. It will be nice to have some decent snow on the ground early this winter for a change, 

So sorry about your pup. It’s never easy losing them. 

Idk about 3-5. I think 2-4 is a safe bet with 4 at the high end. 

 

Also Ritual sorry about your dog. Its tough losing a dog. Especially since they become part of the family. 

[Rd9108]

NWS isnt as enthused as we are. Not surprised its a tricky set up and very progressive.

 

[Burghblizz]

Probably a bit progressive for this - but NAM showing the best thread the needle solution 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&fh=60

 

 ☃

 

[Rd9108]

Its all about the banding whether we bust high or not. Short range models show a lot of the banding to be in the south west corner of the state. We shall see how everything sets up. Regardless "we should" see our first real snow accumulation for the season.

[Rd9108]

Gfs looks good too

[Burghblizz]

Higher end probabilistic forecast bumped up a bit 

 

[Mailman]

Most models and ensemble solutions have come into agreement more 
closely on the precise low track through coastal GA/SC and directly 
up the East Coast, positioning us on the far northern edge. This 
track places the transition zone along and south of I-70 and along 
and east of the Ohio river. Areas north and west of this have a 
better shot to remain all snow and therefore have a higher chance of 
seeing 2-4" snowfall totals. South and east of this, precip types 
may be an issue for snowfall accumulation with a wintry mix more 
likely in this region. Probabilities for Advisory level snow have 
climbed across much of the region (save for the Mon Valley) compared 
to 24 hours ago. Probabilities for Warning level snow remain largely 
between 10-20% at their highest. 

Snowfall rates of 1"/hour seem possible in the heaviest snowfall, 
likely during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning. These rates peak 
in several stripes running SW to NE across the region, highlighting 
embedded heavier bands in the stratiform snow. Neighborhood 
probabilities for 1"/hour rates peak as high as 60-80% in SE Ohio 
near the I-70 corridor, but are at least 20-30% across much of the 
region. 

Stout 850mb WAA racing up the spine of the Appalachians points 
towards the possibility of freezing rain in the Mon Valley and 
eastern ridges early Tuesday morning. These chances remain 
highest in our WV ridges, where the best WAA will be. Further 
west towards the Ohio river, there could still could be freezing
rain if the WAA over performs but current model soundings point
towards a period of melting snow or sleet. Ice accumulations of
a glaze up to a few hundredths could be possible by Tuesday 
morning, highest in the WV ridges. 

At this time a Winter Weather Advisory looks likely for much of the 
area for accumulating snowfall and then perhaps another in the 
ridges for possible ice. We could end up in a situation where the 
only areas that do not need a Winter Weather Advisory would be 
portions of the Mon Valley, where snowfall totals will be kept in 
check by low SLRs/rainfall and freezing rain chances are lower than 
just east in the ridges. No matter the headline decision, the 
Tuesday morning commute could be a messy and potentially dangerous 
one across the region. Please allow for extra time to reach your 
destinations and we urge extra caution on area roadways.