Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[jaxjagman]

Could break the record high Sat around here ahead of the CF,possibly even some severe storms,we could use some rain again here,we've went into a lull lately once again with any liquid

[Carvers Gap]

La Nina is just HOT in my backyard during fall.  It has not been as hot as some years, but it is still very warm. Nights have been cool.  It is almost like living in the desert with such low humidity.  Leaves here are definitely in a state of suspended animation after some cold days in August and early September.  Now, that we have switched firmly back to summer...everything is paused.  Leaf season will run into early winter here.  

There are some hints that cooler weather is coming.  The CFSv2 has an outright flip at 500 while the Euro Weeklies are typically blind to it.  That said, the Euro Weeklies control doesn't have the flip.  Usually if a flip is about to occur, I like to see the Euro Weeklies control and CFSv2 both showing something similar.  Until we see that, I look for at least 2-3 weeks more of very warm weather...maybe longer, but that is pushing the envelope as the pattern will be due for a change sometime around mid-November.  

Ideally, we want the pattern to flip during the last week of November or first week of December.  Then, maybe we can get 4-6 weeks of a pattern which could yield winter weather.  What we don't want is the pattern to flip cold in early November.  If it does that, that means it may well flip back warm by mid December and hold through most of January.  That is a concern and very much on the table.