Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[Matthew70]

Neighbor rain gauge here had 2.2”. Very thankful for that.  Went to Pikeville KY to watch daughter’s college soccer game.  The leaves there & especially at 1000ft were clearly changing.  Lots of red & yellows.  

[Daniel Boone]

14 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I went to visit my son at ETSU today.  Amazing that the trees are already changing in this area.  I believe an early fall is on tap.  
Looks like we finally got some good rains in middle TN.  Hopefully this is the beginning of the drought being eroded away for middle & hopefully west TN.

Glad you all got a significant Rain. 

[Matthew70]

34 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Glad you all got a significant Rain. 

Thank you!  Very much needed.  Not sure about west TN.

[Carvers Gap]

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks.  We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count.  The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought.  That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide.  We will see.  Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer.  Let's hope that is wrong!

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks.  We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count.  The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought.  That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide.  We will see.  Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer.  Let's hope that is wrong!

Yeah, it's a concern as I don't like late season near record heat. Doesn't bode well. Hopefully a Monkey Wrench gets thrown in and alters the projected Pattern. Unforeseen TC Activity could do it.

[nrgjeff]

Looks hot the next two weeks through maybe Wed. Sept. 25 but mercifully humidity should be low to moderate. Only drawback with low RH is the drought will get worse in the Mid-South and western half of our region. Drought might even spread east. Not as hot east, but still dry. -GLAAM favors the warm pattern. 

While the ECMWF weekly is warm forever (what's new?) the CFS drops a Great Lakes trough at the end of the month, somewhat helped by a slight +PNA. Even with the GLAAM situation even a slightly +PNA can allow the said trough. CFS makes sense to get our region's temps back to normal. 

Euro weekly has a similar 500 mb pattern with a Midwest trough. It's west of the CFS trough axis; so, the Euro keeps the Southeast warm. Gonna have to disagree though. With normal heights, surface cool fronts should make it. Sure it'll be a day later than progged, but FROPA will happen.

Bottom line: I have to go with the CFS milder late Sept. Hard spot: I figure drought could expand east more than CPC shows. We'll see. Little NW flow surprises like today might mitigate such a thing. 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Looks hot the next two weeks through maybe Wed. Sept. 25 but mercifully humidity should be low to moderate. Only drawback with low RH is the drought will get worse in the Mid-South and western half of our region. Drought might even spread east. Not as hot east, but still dry. -GLAAM favors the warm pattern. 

While the ECMWF weekly is warm forever (what's new?) the CFS drops a Great Lakes trough at the end of the month, somewhat helped by a slight +PNA. Even with the GLAAM situation even a slightly +PNA can allow the said trough. CFS makes sense to get our region's temps back to normal. 

Euro weekly has a similar 500 mb pattern with a Midwest trough. It's west of the CFS trough axis; so, the Euro keeps the Southeast warm. Gonna have to disagree though. With normal heights, surface cool fronts should make it. Sure it'll be a day later than progged, but FROPA will happen.

Bottom line: I have to go with the CFS milder late Sept. Hard spot: I figure drought could expand east more than CPC shows. We'll see. Little NW flow surprises like today might mitigate such a thing. 

Yeah, the real worry at this juncture is possible impending drought.

[Matthew70]

Neighbor works for the forestry.  They did control burns on the western slope of the plateau Saturday.  Said they don’t go by the typical drought monitor.  They go by the foliage conditions & under growth.  He said the conditions are much more favorable for fires than most believe.  

[Carvers Gap]

Summer's last gasp coming up this weekend and next week?  I think so.  LR ext modeling and general ensembles depict BN heights dropping into the Aleutians.  That should pop a ridge out West, and goodbye summer heat.  But before we get there, it is gonna get HOT.  Early October should feature a full blown transition to generally normal to BN temps.

[John1122]

The supposed current heat has not been a factor here. My high today was 80.4, the first day above 80. It was 54 this morning. Chilled the house with the windows open. Haven't had my AC on in almost 30 days now. Basically a late summer miracle. 

[Carvers Gap]

Real feel here is 89.  Humidity is low thankfully.  Temps in the shade aren’t bad.  Mornings aren’t bad.

[Met1985]

35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Real feel here is 89.  Humidity is low thankfully.  Temps in the shade aren’t bad.  Mornings aren’t bad.

Crazy how early Fall and storms shake up things. Pouring the rain here and 61 degrees currently.  Crazy local weather. 

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like a cutoff low rolling through next weekend, and maybe one more after that.  Hopefully, that ends the heat.

[Carvers Gap]

On 9/19/2025 at 4:56 PM, Met1985 said:

Crazy how early Fall and storms shake up things. Pouring the rain here and 61 degrees currently.  Crazy local weather. 

We had several nearly stationary t-storms this evening over several areas of TRI.  

[Met1985]

14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

We had several nearly stationary t-storms this evening over several areas of TRI.  

I saw there was some hail up there as well?

[John1122]

Really got shafted on that round of rain. It rained all afternoon to my north and west by a few miles. Then it kind of split and redeveloped just to my south and east. I got about 100 drops so far. 

[Daniel Boone]

Wound up with almost a half iinch here today. A Station just east of Sneedville recorded 3.17 inches !

[John1122]

13 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Wound up with almost a half iinch here today. A Station just east of Sneedville recorded 3.17 inches !

I was about 2 miles from 2 inches just to my NW but didn't get enough to settle the dust here. Then it rain 2+ just a few miles south of me too. Hopefully we all have a wet week. I never want to go into October dry. Leaves were raining down yesterday with the wind off the rain.

[Carvers Gap]

On the way back from Knoxville yesterday, we drove through an absolute tempest around Kodak.  The Morristown/Dandridge area did really well with rain yesterday as did most of Knoxville.  TRI has turned predictably dry as this is normally our driest time of the year.  There should be some welcome relief this week.

[John1122]

Two days in a row. A heavy rainer made it to Scott co then fell apart with redevelopment to the East of here.  Hopefully the upstream stuff doesn't do the same thing 

[Jed33]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

On the way back from Knoxville yesterday, we drove through an absolute tempest around Kodak.  The Morristown/Dandridge area did really well with rain yesterday as did most of Knoxville.  TRI has turned predictably dry as this is normally our driest time of the year.  There should be some welcome relief this week.

I agree about Morristown/Dandridge. Including Jefferson City and Talbott where the NWS is located. I have a buddy near Panther Creek State Park who picked up 1.25in at his house. I only got .41 at my house though as the heavy rain fell apart as it moved NE. The same thing happened again today where the west side got heavy rain and barely any to show by the time it got here. 

[Matthew70]

Finally some really good rains here In middle TN.  

[midwoodian]

Have a big outdoor event up here on Signal Mountain tomorrow evening. Looks like possibility of a shower rolling through around 7 pm. Low overall %.

How likely is it something develops tomorrow between 5 and 8 pm, and if it does, will it move through quickly?


.

[John1122]

That round finally held together and gave me a good hour of rain. 

[John1122]

It's now rained about all night long. Thankful for it, as leaf and fire season approach. 

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, midwoodian said:

Have a big outdoor event up here on Signal Mountain tomorrow evening. Looks like possibility of a shower rolling through around 7 pm. Low overall %.

How likely is it something develops tomorrow between 5 and 8 pm, and if it does, will it move through quickly?


.

I will give it a go.  Hopefully, some of the Nooga folks will chime in.

Tough time of day to get a good grasp on.  Afternoon storms are a risk in this pattern.  Signal Mountain is also an entirely different ball game due to its elevation.  If it is anything like my area here in TRI, modeling will often miss things above 1500'.

Firstly, I am not a good short range summer weather source. I did check the RGEM, HRRR, and NAM 3k this morning for your local.  I think what you shared is probably accurate.  The RGEM is a hair earlier than 7PM.  

It is worth noting that modeling has been hit or miss with afternoon storms of late over E TN - i.e. not overly accurate.  A lot of these lines and cells have been slow movers.  By late morning or lunch today, if it were me...I would really keep an eye on short range, hi-res modeling which is derived from radar.

The Signal Mountain NWS point and click is this for the entire day (25% from 4-7PM)....

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

 

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

It's now rained about all night long. Thankful for it, as leaf and fire season approach. 

Great. We wound up with .58" overnight .

[Carvers Gap]

MRX is mentioning the potential for heavy rain tomorrow.  The areas with the greatest chances for 2+" of rain are I81/75west onto the Plateau.  Just a heads up.