Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[Matthew70]

Neighbor rain gauge here had 2.2”. Very thankful for that.  Went to Pikeville KY to watch daughter’s college soccer game.  The leaves there & especially at 1000ft were clearly changing.  Lots of red & yellows.  

[Daniel Boone]

14 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I went to visit my son at ETSU today.  Amazing that the trees are already changing in this area.  I believe an early fall is on tap.  
Looks like we finally got some good rains in middle TN.  Hopefully this is the beginning of the drought being eroded away for middle & hopefully west TN.

Glad you all got a significant Rain. 

[Matthew70]

34 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Glad you all got a significant Rain. 

Thank you!  Very much needed.  Not sure about west TN.

[Carvers Gap]

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks.  We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count.  The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought.  That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide.  We will see.  Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer.  Let's hope that is wrong!

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks.  We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count.  The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought.  That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide.  We will see.  Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer.  Let's hope that is wrong!

Yeah, it's a concern as I don't like late season near record heat. Doesn't bode well. Hopefully a Monkey Wrench gets thrown in and alters the projected Pattern. Unforeseen TC Activity could do it.

[nrgjeff]

Looks hot the next two weeks through maybe Wed. Sept. 25 but mercifully humidity should be low to moderate. Only drawback with low RH is the drought will get worse in the Mid-South and western half of our region. Drought might even spread east. Not as hot east, but still dry. -GLAAM favors the warm pattern. 

While the ECMWF weekly is warm forever (what's new?) the CFS drops a Great Lakes trough at the end of the month, somewhat helped by a slight +PNA. Even with the GLAAM situation even a slightly +PNA can allow the said trough. CFS makes sense to get our region's temps back to normal. 

Euro weekly has a similar 500 mb pattern with a Midwest trough. It's west of the CFS trough axis; so, the Euro keeps the Southeast warm. Gonna have to disagree though. With normal heights, surface cool fronts should make it. Sure it'll be a day later than progged, but FROPA will happen.

Bottom line: I have to go with the CFS milder late Sept. Hard spot: I figure drought could expand east more than CPC shows. We'll see. Little NW flow surprises like today might mitigate such a thing. 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Looks hot the next two weeks through maybe Wed. Sept. 25 but mercifully humidity should be low to moderate. Only drawback with low RH is the drought will get worse in the Mid-South and western half of our region. Drought might even spread east. Not as hot east, but still dry. -GLAAM favors the warm pattern. 

While the ECMWF weekly is warm forever (what's new?) the CFS drops a Great Lakes trough at the end of the month, somewhat helped by a slight +PNA. Even with the GLAAM situation even a slightly +PNA can allow the said trough. CFS makes sense to get our region's temps back to normal. 

Euro weekly has a similar 500 mb pattern with a Midwest trough. It's west of the CFS trough axis; so, the Euro keeps the Southeast warm. Gonna have to disagree though. With normal heights, surface cool fronts should make it. Sure it'll be a day later than progged, but FROPA will happen.

Bottom line: I have to go with the CFS milder late Sept. Hard spot: I figure drought could expand east more than CPC shows. We'll see. Little NW flow surprises like today might mitigate such a thing. 

Yeah, the real worry at this juncture is possible impending drought.