INVEST 99L FORMED: (40/50)

[BarryStantonGBP]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just off the coast of Africa is producing a 
persistent cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some 
slight development of this system is possible over the next day or 
two as it moves westward at around 15 mph. On Thursday, this system 
should reach a less favorable environment, which should reduce its 
chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[BarryStantonGBP]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

[GaWx]

This thread’s E MDR AOI (the current lemon, not the further west orange) is now Invest 99L:

AL, 99, 2025081906, , BEST, 0, 125N, 201W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al992025,

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

This thread’s E MDR AOI (the current lemon, not the further west orange) is now Invest 99L:

AL, 99, 2025081906, , BEST, 0, 125N, 201W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al992025,

Why TF did the lemon nick 99L off the orange?

[BarryStantonGBP]

Invest 99L
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 19, 2025:
 

Location: 12.5°N 20.1°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm
 

oi lads reckon this might nick the name Fernand first or would this more likely be gabs

[Wannabehippie]

How much will the upwelling from Erin inhibit this invest along with the other disturbance out in the Atlantic.

[GaWx]

 I’m not sure but am thinking this 12Z UKMET might be for 99L: E of Bermuda moving NNE at the end:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 25.7N 64.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2025 120 26.9N 63.9W 1012 34
0000UTC 25.08.2025 132 29.9N 63.3W 1012 30
1200UTC 25.08.2025 144 32.0N 62.6W 1012 28
0000UTC 26.08.2025 156 34.8N 61.8W 1013 28
1200UTC 26.08.2025 168 37.5N 60.9W 1013 29

[Seminole]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

How much will the upwelling from Erin inhibit this invest along with the other disturbance out in the Atlantic.

Throw in the exceptional amount of SAL for this time of year and it will be on the struggle bus for a spell.  

 

[GaWx]

I see nothing notable on the 12Z Euro regarding 99L. I don’t see any TC through at least 240 hours.

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I see nothing notable on the 12Z Euro regarding 99L. I don’t see any TC through at least 240 hours.

All the models dont show anyhting anymore 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

PACK IT UP

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

NHS KEPT IT AT 40/40

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Wannabehippie]

99L is pretty far south, at about 8N. On the other hand Erin broke up a lot of that SAL. Still a lot in the mid and eastern Atlantic. But there is that spot between 90L and 99L that is clear of SAL at the moment.

[BarryStantonGBP]

43 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

99L is pretty far south, at about 8N. On the other hand Erin broke up a lot of that SAL. Still a lot in the mid and eastern Atlantic. But there is that spot between 90L and 99L that is clear of SAL at the moment.

Watch the names Fernand and Gabrielle be given to SAL-choked systems

[WxWatcher007]

lol 

[Normandy Ho]

Lazy ass NHC

[BarryStantonGBP]

47 minutes ago, Normandy Ho said:

Lazy ass NHC

Bloody NHS

[WxWatcher007]

Exhibit B to all the people that complain about the NHC naming every swirl. 

[GaWx]

 2AM TWO: up slightly from 50/50 to 50/60:

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
about a thousand miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands 
remain well organized. This system could become a tropical 
depression at any time, but the latest satellite-derived wind data 
indicate that the system does not have a well-defined circulation 
center. The system is expected to move into a less conducive 
environment later today through Saturday, but could reach a slightly 
more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next 
week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical 
Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent

—————

 There’s lots of wx bb chatter that suggests this is already a TC. Hmmm.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Icon has this as a 997 TS at 180 in the W Caribbean moving WNW:

[WxWatcher007]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z Icon has this as a 997 TS at 180 in the W Caribbean moving WNW:

I’m not sure if it can get into the Caribbean as a coherent system, but if it can survive vorticity stretching over the next few days maybe it has a chance. This looks trickier than models suggest. If it survives.