NEW DISTURBANCE: Central Tropical Atlantic (10/60)

[MJO812]

[BarryStantonGBP]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thread made

[GaWx]

Latest UKMET (0Z) still pretty weak and a little west of 12Z  though still not far W of Bermuda:

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.6N  64.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 23.08.2025  108  21.3N  65.7W     1010            28
    0000UTC 24.08.2025  120  22.9N  67.2W     1011            30
    1200UTC 24.08.2025  132  24.5N  68.2W     1011            35
    0000UTC 25.08.2025  144  26.9N  68.9W     1011            35
    1200UTC 25.08.2025  156  29.9N  68.4W     1012            35
    0000UTC 26.08.2025  168  33.3N  67.2W     1011            31

[MJO812]

Gfs is now offshore at 0z

[WxWatcher007]

Not quite sure what to make of the operational models backing off development when the ensembles still have a pretty robust signal for TC genesis. Erin's evolution will have a big impact on what happens with this one. 

[Wannabehippie]

 

Looks like there has been upwelling from Erin. How much will this impact this disturbance and the other one out in the Atlantic.

[A-L-E-K]

miami or bust