August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Not here. Early month I was in the low 50s for lows when you were 60+ and the cities were 65+.  You can easily see from Bluewaves graphics.  My highs are 0 to -2 and lows are -4 to -6.

I was just busting your balls

But regarding your post, different stations already have their UHI level or general microclimate baked into their averages. 

Your -5 low might be 58 but my -5 low is more like 63 and LGA's -5 is 66. 

Many times that's where the difference lies, not that you or other places achieved a greater departure. 

[SACRUS]

8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Not here. Early month I was in the low 50s for lows when you were 60+ and the cities were 65+.  You can easily see from Bluewaves graphics.  My highs are 0 to -2 and lows are -4 to -6.

 

MMU: -3.1
TTN: -3 through the 14th
PHL: -1.5

[Sundog]

If I go by Central Park's average for my location, which is probably more in line since its numbers are cooler overall than the more urban spots of the city, the closest ambient station to me is -3.5 degreess so far for the month. 

[bluewave]

Next week looks like what the surfers have been waiting for all summer. The best August hurricane swell that we have seen in years.

The unusual part with the set up is how much smoke pools just to our SW as the Erin recurves OTS. So rather than much rain, we could see the smoke move into the area as Erin phases with the 50/50 low and another upper low from Hudson Bay heads for SE Canada.
 

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/aerosol-forecasts?base_time=202508150000&layer_name=composition_aod550&projection=classical_north_america&valid_time=202508200000

[FPizz]

20 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I was just busting your balls

But regarding your post, different stations already have their UHI level or general microclimate baked into their averages. 

Your -5 low might be 58 but my -5 low is more like 63 and LGA's -5 is 66. 

Many times that's where the difference lies, not that you or other places achieved a greater departure. 

True.  The low departure on his graphics covered a large area, but having the 0 to -2 highs I think might have actually made it so I'm closer to -3 (for now) compared to north more where the departures were higher.  

[SACRUS]

 

83 / 63 east / onshore wind 

[winterwarlock]

84/67/87

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The summer high tempersrures at JFK and Newark are rising at a similar rate. But JFK is still 4° cooler for summer highs than Newark since it’s right on the water with more sea breezes.

But if this current rate of warming continues, then JFK will start seeing a big increase in 90° days as the summer average gets closer to 90°. So the equivalent to Newark 90° days at JFK is 86°. 
 

JFK number of 86° days since 1996

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	29	139
2024	28	0
2023	23	0
2022	41	0
2021	35	0
2020	37	0
2019	35	0
2018	31	0
2017	28	0
2016	41	0
2015	49	0
2014	13	0
2013	24	0
2012	36	0
2011	36	0
2010	55	0
2009	15	0
2008	26	0
2007	20	0
2006	22	0
2005	32	0
2004	7	0
2003	22	0
2002	38	0
2001	18	0
2000	16	0
1999	27	0
1998	28	0
1997	25	0
1996	10	0

 

 

I'm going to love that!  I hope that means more 100 degree days too!  I remember you posted JFK's 90 degree high graph a few weeks ago, it's basically a flat line going from the 80s to now?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Next week looks like what the surfers have been waiting for all summer. The best August hurricane swell that we have seen in years.

The unusual part with the set up is how much smoke pools just to our SW as the Erin recurves OTS. So rather than much rain, we could see the smoke move into the area as Erin phases with the 50/50 low and another upper low from Hudson Bay heads for SE Canada.
 

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/aerosol-forecasts?base_time=202508150000&layer_name=composition_aod550&projection=classical_north_america&valid_time=202508200000

more smoke omg...

Did 1995 have excellent surf weather in addition to all the heat?  There were MANY TC that took this same track in that summer.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Not here. Early month I was in the low 50s for lows when you were 60+ and the cities were 65+.  You can easily see from Bluewaves graphics.  My highs are 0 to -2 and lows are -4 to -6.

August has been very different from the June 20 - July 31 period.  Even though I turn my a/c on for a few hours a day I always turn it off at night or I'd freeze lol

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Mostly driven by the cooler minimums as we are finally getting lower dewpoints.

 

when was the last time we had a summer month with below normal temperatures that was also drier than normal, Chris? This reminds me of what we had over the winter.

The AMO is probably flipping to negative....

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's a statistical ranking for JFK. The description is at the bottom of the chart. 

1966 was 11th (pulled down by its relatively cool mean temperature and cool highest minimum temperature). Summer 1948 isn't listed, because about half the days (46) had no data.

2025 is currently battling for the third spot, but it will likely fade lower given the forecast for the second half of August.

Thanks for this Don!  I assume this only includes the 3 JJA months?  Would 1983 score even higher if September was included?

2010 is so far ahead of every other summer (the only one over 2.0) that I don't think it would be eclipsed even if September were included but 1983 might get close to 2.0.  Or does the number of 90 degree days include the months both before and after JJA Don?

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

August has been very different from the June 20 - July 31 period.  Even though I turn my a/c on for a few hours a day I always turn it off at night or I'd freeze lol

 

Mine stays on.  If the house gets cool enough, it will click off.  Wish I could open the windows more on cool nights, but there are always dogs barking it seems then my dogs want to bark back out the window, lol.  

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The higher humidity with dewpoints often over 75 helps heat it up overall since it carries more heat. So even though winds are onshore much of the time at JFK, it carries the higher dewpoints. 

1983 had the best of both, it had the most number of 90 degree days and the highest number of 75 degree dewpoints at JFK, until 2010 came along. I think 2016 is the new record holder for most number of 75 degree dewpoint days.  The summers coming after strong and super el ninos seem to be both extremely hot and exceptionally humid. So are some summers coming after moderate or stronger la ninas (1999 and 2011).

It was a very wet year, just coming off the 1982-83 super el nino.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That’s true. I don’t have a sufficient base of daily dewpoint data to add it into the mix.

1983 set the record for most 90 degree days and 75 dew point days at JFK before the 2010s.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The higher humidity with dewpoints often over 75 helps heat it up overall since it carries more heat. So even though winds are onshore much of the time at JFK, it carries the higher dewpoints. 

higher humidity may carry more heat but it lowers the temperature during the day while pushing it up at night.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

2005 looks like the hottest summer overall for New York State, per NCEI.

June & July 2025 came in it third place at 69.3F. Right now, I have August around 68.5F for a gridded statewide mean, which would yield a meteorological summer mean of 69.0F for the state. 2005 was a scorcher! With as hot as this summer has been, it's hard to believe it was more than 1F warmer. That's huge for a statewide average.

Yes 2005 was extremely hot too but lower number of 90 degrees here because of the onshore flow.

2005 was similar to 1988 in that respect.

Look how high 1949 ranks on almost every chart, I find that absolutely incredible lol.

The rise in summer temperatures isn't a straight line, it's stair step and then a leveling off happens for a few years before the next rise.

For us it's been 1949 and then 1983 and then 2010.

 

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks for this Don!  I assume this only includes the 3 JJA months?  Would 1983 score even higher if September was included?

2010 is so far ahead of every other summer (the only one over 2.0) that I don't think it would be eclipsed even if September were included but 1983 might get close to 2.0.  Or does the number of 90 degree days include the months both before and after JJA Don?

Adding September would still leave 1983 in second place, but the gap would narrow. The top five from most extreme to less extreme would be: 2010 (2.188), 1983 (1.762), 1999 (1.614), 2016 (1.297), and 2002 (1.232). 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 99 (1988)
NYC: 97 (1988)
LGA: 97 (1985)
JFK: 98 (1988)


Lows:

EWR: 54 (1964)
NYC: 54 (1964)
LGA: 59 (1964)
JFK: 57 (1964)

Historical:


 

1787 - Tornadoes were reported in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Wethersfield CT was hard hit by the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum)

1886: This tornado was estimated to be an F3 and moved northeast from 5 miles southwest of Newark, SD through town and into North Dakota. Only three buildings were reportedly undamaged at Newark, and a bartender at a saloon was killed. Three people died in two homes on adjoining farms two miles southwest of town. A saddle from a Newark stable was carried for a half mile. In North Dakota, homes and barns was damaged along the Wild River. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1946 - Saint Louis, MO, was deluged with a record 8.78 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)

1950: In 45 years of Hawaiian meteorological records, a hurricane had never affected the islands. On this date, Hurricane Hiki was moving north of the islands. Residents held their breath when the storm turned southwestward. Fortunately, the storm resumed its westward course and missed the islands. The highest wind speed recorded was at Kilauea Lighthouse, Kauai at 68 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967 - The sundance fire in northern Idaho was started by lightning. Winds of 50 mph carried firebrands as much as ten miles in advance to ignite new fires, and as a result, the forest fire spread twenty miles across the Selkirk Mountains in just twelve hours, burning 56,000 acres. The heat of the fire produced whirlwinds of flame with winds up to 300 mph which flung giant trees about like matchsticks. (David Ludlum)

1969: Camille became a hurricane south of Cuba and entered the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1971: Some of the worst flooding that ever occurred in western north Texas happened on this date. Heavy rain began on the 14th, but the worst of the rain and most of the flooding was on this date. On that day, rainfall amounted 4 to 11 inches. The Wichita River, on the northwest side of Wichita Falls, TX crested at its highest level in 30 years. At least 10 families were forced to evacuate their homes along the river as the waters rapidly rose. The river also rose so high that its swift-flowing waters undercut several streets, causing them to collapse. The official rainfall at the National Weather Service Office in Wichita Falls was 4.52 inches, making this the wettest August day ever observed in the city. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1977: Lightning struck a cement well covering near Mankato, MN, causing shattered pieces of concrete to be blown over 30 feet, damaging cars.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)  Hurricane Doreen tracked north-northwest along the west coast of Baja California, dissipating over the coastal waters. Areas of southern California received at least two inches of rain with up to 8 inches in the mountains on this date through the 17th. Debris flows and flooding from Henderson Canyon into the Borrego Springs De Anza area damaged 100 homes. Mud flows grew to five feet deep. Flooded roads resulted in desert areas. Four people died and damage was set at $25 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: Early season chill across the Midwest and East produced record low temperatures for the date including: International Falls, MN: 33°, Grand Forks, ND: 36°, Madison, WI: 37°, St. Cloud, MN: 39°, Fargo, ND: 43°, La Crosse, WI: 43°, Dubuque, IA: 45°, Peoria, IL: 45°, Indianapolis, IN: 45°, Mansfield, OH: 46°-Tied, Moline, IL: 47°-Tied, Akron, OH: 47°- Tied, Youngstown, OH: 47°-Tied and Cincinnati, OH: 49°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983 - Hurricane Alicia formed on this day and was the costliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. It struck Galveston and Houston, Texas directly, causing $2.6 billion (1983 USD) in damage and killing 21 people. This storm was the worst Texas hurricane since Hurricane Carla in 1961. Also, Alicia was the first billion-dollar tropical cyclone in Texas history.

1987 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a sharp cold front produced severe weather in the Upper Midwest during the afternoon and evening hours, with Minnesota and eastern South Dakota hardest hit. A thunderstorm in west central Minnesota spawned a tornado at Eagle Lake which killed one person and injured eight others. A thunder- storm in eastern South Dakota produced softball size hail at Warner. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty five cities in twenty states in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lamoni IA and Baltimore MD, where the mercury hit 105 degrees. Temperatures 100 degrees or above were reported in twenty-two states. Pierre SD was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 114 degrees. Bluefield WV reported eight straight days of record heat. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Evening thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Clovis. Evening thunderstorms in West Texas produced baseball size hail around Hereford, Dimmitt, Ware and Dalhart. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1993: Slow moving thunderstorms produced torrential rain across Mower County, MN. Rainfall exceeded 4.00" over most of the county with the highest total of 10.25" at Adams, MN. Significant flooding occurred within the city of Austin, MN, where 1,000 homes suffered water damage. The Cedar River in Austin rose rapidly out of its banks through the day. It crested at 21.3 feet, 6.3 feet above flood stage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994: Tropical Storm Beryl formed in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and moved slowly east northeast, crossing the Florida panhandle coastline near Panama City. Beryl greatly added to the woes of people who were still recovering from Tropical Storm Alberto in July. At landfall the maximum sustained wind was estimated at 60 mph. The greatest rainfall total of 10.69 inches were observed at Apalachicola, but higher values likely occurred to the east of this location. Beryl weakened to a tropical depression as it moved northeast into extreme southwest Georgia at early on the 16th. There were no deaths and only 1 injury directly attributable to Beryl and damage was estimated at $5.9 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Severe flooding in Death Valley National Park in California caused extensive flooding. The flooding completely washed away several miles of roadway and caused damage to several rest areas. Two people traveling along Highway 190 were caught in the flooding and killed. Damage was estimated at $20 million dollars and took 3 months to completely repair the damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. WxDoctor)

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 99 (1988)
NYC: 97 (1988)
LGA: 97 (1985)
JFK: 98 (1988)

 

1988 was incredibly hot in August

 

1988 - Thirty five cities in twenty states in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lamoni IA and Baltimore MD, where the mercury hit 105 degrees. Temperatures 100 degrees or above were reported in twenty-two states. Pierre SD was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 114 degrees. Bluefield WV reported eight straight days of record heat. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1993: Slow moving thunderstorms produced torrential rain across Mower County, MN. Rainfall exceeded 4.00" over most of the county with the highest total of 10.25" at Adams, MN. Significant flooding occurred within the city of Austin, MN, where 1,000 homes suffered water damage. The Cedar River in Austin rose rapidly out of its banks through the day. It crested at 21.3 feet, 6.3 feet above flood stage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

endless flooding in the MW in 1993 while we had our endless summer here

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, September would life 1983 to second place. The top five from most extreme to less extreme would be: 2010 (2.188), 1983 (1.762), 1999 (1.614), 2016 (1.297), and 2002 1.232). 

Thanks Don.... I think 2016 has our new record for 75 degree dew point days, the previous high water mark was 1983 which had the most 90 degree days (until 2010) and the most 75 degree dew point days (until 2016.)

I see you mentioned that even though 1948 had its extreme 100 degree heatwave in late August it can't be included because of missing data from earlier in the summer.  Is there any way to project what its ranking and score would be by using LGA and NYC to fill in the missing data? Would it make the top 10 do you think Don?

 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don.... I think 2016 has our new record for 75 degree dew point days, the previous high water mark was 1983 which had the most 90 degree days (until 2010) and the most 75 degree dew point days (until 2016.)

I see you mentioned that even though 1948 had its extreme 100 degree heatwave in late August it can't be included because of missing data from earlier in the summer.  Is there any way to project what its ranking and score would be by using LGA and NYC to fill in the missing data? Would it make the top 10 do you think Don?

 

I cleaned up my typos. 1983 would remain second, but the difference between 2010 and 1983 would narrow were September added.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I cleaned up my typos. 1983 would remain second, but the difference between 2010 and 1983 would narrow were September added.

Thanks Don, it makes the difference between 1983 and 1999 a little more.  2010 is still well ahead of the rest though.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Mine stays on.  If the house gets cool enough, it will click off.  Wish I could open the windows more on cool nights, but there are always dogs barking it seems then my dogs want to bark back out the window, lol.  

Maybe they're barking at some animal outside that they hear or smell but humans can't?

edit-- oh you mean there are outside dogs they're barking at?

[FPizz]

86/70.  It's going to be a little warm at great adventure.