August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Not here. Early month I was in the low 50s for lows when you were 60+ and the cities were 65+.  You can easily see from Bluewaves graphics.  My highs are 0 to -2 and lows are -4 to -6.

I was just busting your balls

But regarding your post, different stations already have their UHI level or general microclimate baked into their averages. 

Your -5 low might be 58 but my -5 low is more like 63 and LGA's -5 is 66. 

Many times that's where the difference lies, not that you or other places achieved a greater departure. 

[SACRUS]

8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Not here. Early month I was in the low 50s for lows when you were 60+ and the cities were 65+.  You can easily see from Bluewaves graphics.  My highs are 0 to -2 and lows are -4 to -6.

 

MMU: -3.1
TTN: -3 through the 14th
PHL: -1.5

[Sundog]

If I go by Central Park's average for my location, which is probably more in line since its numbers are cooler overall than the more urban spots of the city, the closest ambient station to me is -3.5 degreess so far for the month. 

[bluewave]

Next week looks like what the surfers have been waiting for all summer. The best August hurricane swell that we have seen in years.

The unusual part with the set up is how much smoke pools just to our SW as the Erin recurves OTS. So rather than much rain, we could see the smoke move into the area as Erin phases with the 50/50 low and another upper low from Hudson Bay heads for SE Canada.
 

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/aerosol-forecasts?base_time=202508150000&layer_name=composition_aod550&projection=classical_north_america&valid_time=202508200000

[FPizz]

20 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I was just busting your balls

But regarding your post, different stations already have their UHI level or general microclimate baked into their averages. 

Your -5 low might be 58 but my -5 low is more like 63 and LGA's -5 is 66. 

Many times that's where the difference lies, not that you or other places achieved a greater departure. 

True.  The low departure on his graphics covered a large area, but having the 0 to -2 highs I think might have actually made it so I'm closer to -3 (for now) compared to north more where the departures were higher.  

[SACRUS]

 

83 / 63 east / onshore wind 

[winterwarlock]

84/67/87

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The summer high tempersrures at JFK and Newark are rising at a similar rate. But JFK is still 4° cooler for summer highs than Newark since it’s right on the water with more sea breezes.

But if this current rate of warming continues, then JFK will start seeing a big increase in 90° days as the summer average gets closer to 90°. So the equivalent to Newark 90° days at JFK is 86°. 
 

JFK number of 86° days since 1996

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	29	139
2024	28	0
2023	23	0
2022	41	0
2021	35	0
2020	37	0
2019	35	0
2018	31	0
2017	28	0
2016	41	0
2015	49	0
2014	13	0
2013	24	0
2012	36	0
2011	36	0
2010	55	0
2009	15	0
2008	26	0
2007	20	0
2006	22	0
2005	32	0
2004	7	0
2003	22	0
2002	38	0
2001	18	0
2000	16	0
1999	27	0
1998	28	0
1997	25	0
1996	10	0

 

 

I'm going to love that!  I hope that means more 100 degree days too!  I remember you posted JFK's 90 degree high graph a few weeks ago, it's basically a flat line going from the 80s to now?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Next week looks like what the surfers have been waiting for all summer. The best August hurricane swell that we have seen in years.

The unusual part with the set up is how much smoke pools just to our SW as the Erin recurves OTS. So rather than much rain, we could see the smoke move into the area as Erin phases with the 50/50 low and another upper low from Hudson Bay heads for SE Canada.
 

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/aerosol-forecasts?base_time=202508150000&layer_name=composition_aod550&projection=classical_north_america&valid_time=202508200000

more smoke omg...

Did 1995 have excellent surf weather in addition to all the heat?  There were MANY TC that took this same track in that summer.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Not here. Early month I was in the low 50s for lows when you were 60+ and the cities were 65+.  You can easily see from Bluewaves graphics.  My highs are 0 to -2 and lows are -4 to -6.

August has been very different from the June 20 - July 31 period.  Even though I turn my a/c on for a few hours a day I always turn it off at night or I'd freeze lol

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Mostly driven by the cooler minimums as we are finally getting lower dewpoints.

 

when was the last time we had a summer month with below normal temperatures that was also drier than normal, Chris? This reminds me of what we had over the winter.

The AMO is probably flipping to negative....

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's a statistical ranking for JFK. The description is at the bottom of the chart. 

1966 was 11th (pulled down by its relatively cool mean temperature and cool highest minimum temperature). Summer 1948 isn't listed, because about half the days (46) had no data.

2025 is currently battling for the third spot, but it will likely fade lower given the forecast for the second half of August.

Thanks for this Don!  I assume this only includes the 3 JJA months?  Would 1983 score even higher if September was included?

2010 is so far ahead of every other summer (the only one over 2.0) that I don't think it would be eclipsed even if September were included but 1983 might get close to 2.0.  Or does the number of 90 degree days include the months both before and after JJA Don?

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

August has been very different from the June 20 - July 31 period.  Even though I turn my a/c on for a few hours a day I always turn it off at night or I'd freeze lol

 

Mine stays on.  If the house gets cool enough, it will click off.  Wish I could open the windows more on cool nights, but there are always dogs barking it seems then my dogs want to bark back out the window, lol.  

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The higher humidity with dewpoints often over 75 helps heat it up overall since it carries more heat. So even though winds are onshore much of the time at JFK, it carries the higher dewpoints. 

1983 had the best of both, it had the most number of 90 degree days and the highest number of 75 degree dewpoints at JFK, until 2010 came along. I think 2016 is the new record holder for most number of 75 degree dewpoint days.  The summers coming after strong and super el ninos seem to be both extremely hot and exceptionally humid. So are some summers coming after moderate or stronger la ninas (1999 and 2011).

It was a very wet year, just coming off the 1982-83 super el nino.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That’s true. I don’t have a sufficient base of daily dewpoint data to add it into the mix.

1983 set the record for most 90 degree days and 75 dew point days at JFK before the 2010s.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The higher humidity with dewpoints often over 75 helps heat it up overall since it carries more heat. So even though winds are onshore much of the time at JFK, it carries the higher dewpoints. 

higher humidity may carry more heat but it lowers the temperature during the day while pushing it up at night.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

2005 looks like the hottest summer overall for New York State, per NCEI.

June & July 2025 came in it third place at 69.3F. Right now, I have August around 68.5F for a gridded statewide mean, which would yield a meteorological summer mean of 69.0F for the state. 2005 was a scorcher! With as hot as this summer has been, it's hard to believe it was more than 1F warmer. That's huge for a statewide average.

Yes 2005 was extremely hot too but lower number of 90 degrees here because of the onshore flow.

2005 was similar to 1988 in that respect.

Look how high 1949 ranks on almost every chart, I find that absolutely incredible lol.

The rise in summer temperatures isn't a straight line, it's stair step and then a leveling off happens for a few years before the next rise.

For us it's been 1949 and then 1983 and then 2010.

 

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks for this Don!  I assume this only includes the 3 JJA months?  Would 1983 score even higher if September was included?

2010 is so far ahead of every other summer (the only one over 2.0) that I don't think it would be eclipsed even if September were included but 1983 might get close to 2.0.  Or does the number of 90 degree days include the months both before and after JJA Don?

Adding September would still leave 1983 in second place, but the gap would narrow. The top five from most extreme to less extreme would be: 2010 (2.188), 1983 (1.762), 1999 (1.614), 2016 (1.297), and 2002 (1.232). 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, September would life 1983 to second place. The top five from most extreme to less extreme would be: 2010 (2.188), 1983 (1.762), 1999 (1.614), 2016 (1.297), and 2002 1.232). 

Thanks Don.... I think 2016 has our new record for 75 degree dew point days, the previous high water mark was 1983 which had the most 90 degree days (until 2010) and the most 75 degree dew point days (until 2016.)

I see you mentioned that even though 1948 had its extreme 100 degree heatwave in late August it can't be included because of missing data from earlier in the summer.  Is there any way to project what its ranking and score would be by using LGA and NYC to fill in the missing data? Would it make the top 10 do you think Don?

 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don.... I think 2016 has our new record for 75 degree dew point days, the previous high water mark was 1983 which had the most 90 degree days (until 2010) and the most 75 degree dew point days (until 2016.)

I see you mentioned that even though 1948 had its extreme 100 degree heatwave in late August it can't be included because of missing data from earlier in the summer.  Is there any way to project what its ranking and score would be by using LGA and NYC to fill in the missing data? Would it make the top 10 do you think Don?

 

I cleaned up my typos. 1983 would remain second, but the difference between 2010 and 1983 would narrow were September added.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I cleaned up my typos. 1983 would remain second, but the difference between 2010 and 1983 would narrow were September added.

Thanks Don, it makes the difference between 1983 and 1999 a little more.  2010 is still well ahead of the rest though.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Mine stays on.  If the house gets cool enough, it will click off.  Wish I could open the windows more on cool nights, but there are always dogs barking it seems then my dogs want to bark back out the window, lol.  

Maybe they're barking at some animal outside that they hear or smell but humans can't?

edit-- oh you mean there are dogs outside they're barking at?

[FPizz]

86/70.  It's going to be a little warm at great adventure.

[donsutherland1]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's a statistical ranking for JFK. The description is at the bottom of the chart. 

1966 was 11th (pulled down by its relatively cool mean temperature and cool highest minimum temperature). Summer 1948 isn't listed, because about half the days (46) had no data.

2025 is currently battling for the third spot, but it will likely fade lower given the forecast for the second half of August.

It's highly unlikely. Both LGA and Central Park had too few 90° or above days during 1948 and the summer mean was 0.4°-0.5° below that of 1949. Using just the 1948-2024 period, 1948 ranked 13 spots below 1949 at LGA and 19 spots below Central Park.

[FPizz]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Maybe they're barking at some animal outside that they hear or smell but humans can't?

 

Who knows.  My neighbor 2 doors down has 3 show dogs (smooth collies).  For some reason, she has them outside all the time and they bark at everything.  It is so annoying.  There is no reason why 70 pound dogs need to go out every few hours.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's highly unlikely. Both LGA and Central Park had too few 90° or above days during 1948 and the summer mean was 0.4°-0.5° below that of 1949. Using just the 1948-2024 period, 1948 ranked 13 spots below 1949 at LGA and 19 spots below Central Park.

Thanks Don, I figured as much, 1948 was not very hot outside of that extreme heatwave near the end of August (I wonder why it happened, there must have been some very anomalous pattern in place.  The only other time NYC had three 100+ days in a row was in 1993 and that was a hot summer from beginning to end, very different from 1948.)

Don, when you have some time could you do a chart like this for NYC too?

I think the top summers would be 2010, 1993, 1953, 1949 and 1983.

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm going to love that!  I hope that means more 100 degree days too!  I remember you posted JFK's 90 degree high graph a few weeks ago, it's basically a flat line going from the 80s to now?

 

90° days have been increasing at a slower rate than the 86° days at JFK. If the summer high temperatures rise another 2-4°, then the 90° days will begin to increase more sharply. The summer average high is still too low for a big increase in 90° days like areas west of the sea breeze in NJ have experienced. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, I figured as much, 1948 was not very hot outside of that extreme heatwave near the end of August (I wonder why it happened, there must have been some very anomalous pattern in place.  The only other time NYC had three 100+ days in a row was in 1993 and that was a hot summer from beginning to end, very different from 1948.)

Don, when you have some time could you do a chart like this for NYC too?

I think the top summers would be 2010, 1993, 1953, 1949 and 1983.

Here are the standardized scores for Central Park. I used the same criteria as for JFK Airport. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here are the standardized scores for Central Park. I used the same criteria as for JFK Airport. 

wow I'm really surprised 1995 ranks above 1993, 1993 had the more extreme heatwave and set the 90 degree record at NYC

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

90° days have been increasing at a slower rate than the 86° days at JFK. If the summer high temperatures rise another 2-4°, then the 90° days will begin to increase more sharply. The summer average high is still too low for a big increase in 90° days like areas west of the sea breeze in NJ have experienced. 
 

 

is the rise also slower for SNE (like places in CT near the shoreline) Chris? I was amazed that Bridgeport had a higher temperature than JFK the other day, I thought they were more vulnerable to the sea breeze there.

When do you think 100 degree temperatures  at JFK might start to happen more often, like they did in the 1940s and 1950s up to 1966 Chris?