June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Sundog said:

@forkyfork the GFS just doesn't a strong westerly flow at the surface to fight off the afternoon seabreeze for the people east of 95. I am not saying it's right, although I really hope it is!

This is all deep into fantasy range anyway. 

you should want a strong westerly flow, it means lower dew points and lower humidity

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, Sundog said:

A bit more seabreeze on Tuesday as well compared to 6z. Still gets to 100+ but coastal places cool off to reasonable levels

no thank you, 100+ with 45 dewpoints is far better and far cleaner air.

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Getting Ray Bradbury All Summer In A Day vibes

Try Fahrenheit 451 too lol

 

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

no thank you, 100+ with 45 dewpoints is far better and far cleaner air.

It looks like the dewpoints are going to be bad.

At the same time I said the GFS was giving us a bit of a SSE breeze on the coast on Monday, the dewpoints are actually worse where its's full roast inland:

 

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, Sundog said:

If you think that's funny the 12z GGEM just gave us a backdoor cold front for next Tuesday, the same day the Euro was giving us upper 100s yesterday:

If the ridge axis is to our west it makes it more likely the heat gets broken up by a backdoor front or T-storms. And there’s the southerly wind too that will try any day to factor in and cool it down. It’s just really tough to get these 5+ day big heatwaves especially the last 5 years or so. 

[Sundog]

Same story on Tuesday, the worst dewpoints are mostly away from the coast despite the light seabreeze.

[SACRUS]

Breaks in the clouds

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

It looks like the dewpoints are going to be bad.

At the same time I said the GFS was giving us a bit of a SSE breeze on the coast on Monday, the dewpoints are actually worse where its's full roast inland:

 

July 2010 is far preferable to any of this

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

*usual warm spots* doesn't cut it Chris, if the entire region doesn't hit 100+ it's not historic

Then by that narrower definition our region hasn’t ever had an historic heatwave since MTP only made it to 98° back in 2011. 

 

Time Series Summary for MONTAUK AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2011	98	1
-	2006	98	0
-	2001	98	1
2	2010	96	1
-	1999	96	0
3	2002	95	5
4	2019	94	2
-	2005	94	0
5	2013	93	2

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the ridge axis is to our west it makes it more likely the heat gets broken up by a backdoor front or T-storms. And there’s the southerly wind too that will try any day to factor in and cool it down. It’s just really tough to get these 5+ day big heatwaves especially the last 5 years or so. 

But if the heat is really extreme, it will hit 100+ by 12 noon like it did in 2010 and 2011.  The sea breeze will come in after JFK etc have already hit 100+

I notice that JFK temps rise quickly in the morning on these kinds of days and the sea breeze only comes in after it's already over 100.

 

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Breaks in the clouds

Still lightly misting here

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Then by that narrower definition our region hasn’t ever  had an historic heatwave since  MTP only made it to 98° back in 2011. 

 

Time Series Summary for MONTAUK AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2011	98	1
-	2006	98	0
-	2001	98	1
2	2010	96	1
-	1999	96	0
3	2002	95	5
4	2019	94	2
-	2005	94	0
5	2013	93	2

 

MTP has a New England climate Chris.  I'd argue for our 3 airports plus Central Park being enough.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, bluewave said:

Then by that narrower definition our region hasn’t ever  had an historic heatwave since  MTP only made it to 98° back in 2011. 

 

Time Series Summary for MONTAUK AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2011	98	1
-	2006	98	0
-	2001	98	1
2	2010	96	1
-	1999	96	0
3	2002	95	5
4	2019	94	2
-	2005	94	0
5	2013	93	2

 

Yeah, I doubt there's ever been a case where the entire region was AOA 100F on the same date.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, I doubt there's ever been a case where the entire region was AOA 100F on the same date.

we're just going for the 3 local airports plus the park to define historic

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

got anything for 2010 or 1993 or 1991 Tony?

Nothing met the criteria in june for heatwave with 99 degree or higher reading.

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

MTP has a New England climate Chris.  I'd argue for our 3 airports plus Central Park being enough.

Just because coastal areas haven’t seen 100° heat since 2013, doesn’t take away from the record to historic heat experienced in our forum away from the sea breeze. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just because coastal areas haven’t seen 100° heat since 2013, doesn’t take away from the record to historic heat experienced in our forum away from the sea breeze. 

it's not just a local thing, and NYC makes the list too.  I'm not convinced this is just about the sea breeze either, as our heat was much more prolonged in the 1940s and 1950s.

CC has blunted extreme summer heat in our area, lowering the number of extreme heat waves (7+ days in a row over 90).

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not just a local thing, and NYC makes the list too.  I'm not convinced this is just about the sea breeze either, as our heat was much more prolonged in the 1940s and 1950s.

 

The 5 boroughs of NYC has had 100° heat numerous times since 2013.  It’s even possible that 100° heat in recent years has made it to interior NW Nassau. But we don’t have enough thermometer coverage in that area to know.

[MANDA]

24 minutes ago, Sundog said:

It looks like the dewpoints are going to be bad.

At the same time I said the GFS was giving us a bit of a SSE breeze on the coast on Monday, the dewpoints are actually worse where its's full roast inland:

 

In my opinion this is going to be the bigger story.  High HI readings.  DP's in the upper 60's and low 70's along with 95-100 degree temperatures not pleasant.  Lot's of bed wetting going on with EXTREME max temperature forecasts.  Dubious outcome on that, especially this far out.  Interesting to watch for sure but you could be disappointed.  Will be nasty combo of temperatures and dews though.  Heat related advisories and warnings will be flying down the road.  High dews will make for miserable warmth urban areas during the overnight hours as well.

[SACRUS]

Just now, bluewave said:

The 5 boroughs of NYC has had 100° heat numerous times since 2013.  It’s even possible that 100° heat in recent years has made it to interior NW Nassau. But we don’t have enough coverage in that area to know.

 

Agreed andI had posted as long or longer stretched of heat since the 40s/50s including the 1988 and 2002 heatwaves for other parts of the forum.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 5 boroughs of NYC has had 100° heat numerous times since 2013.  It’s even possible that 100° heat in recent years has made it to interior NW Nassau. But we don’t have enough thermometer coverage in that area to know.

but we don't know how reliable those thermometers are or if they meet NWS criteria, it's like reading snowfall reports from  a PNS. Plus for the heat to actually be historic it should cover more of the area like it did in 2010 and 2011.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Agreed andI had posted as long or longer stretched of heat since the 40s/50s including the 1988 and 2002 heatwaves for other parts of the forum.

2002 I agree with but not 1988 we had much more backdoor fronting going on in 1988.  It was hot no doubt but not on the level of the summers at the top (1993, 2010, etc.) We need a way to measure heatwaves the way we measure KU, coverage counts with KU events too. Thats why the top two events are March 1993 and January 1996.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

In my opinion this is going to be the bigger story.  High HI readings.  DP's in the upper 60's and low 70's along with 95-100 degree temperatures not pleasant.  Lot's bed wetting going on with EXTREME max temperature forecasts.  Dubious outcome on that.

I mean if it’s 94/78 that’s a 110 heat index which is quite dangerous. 104/68 is a 111 heat index. 

[Sundog]

The Inferno Model is out to 42. Let's see if it backed off at all from the oven like temps

[Sundog]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I mean if it’s 94/78 that’s a 110 heat index which is quite dangerous. 104/68 is a 111 heat index. 

Which combo is easier on climate control systems? 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Which combo is easier on climate control systems? 

Both are bad, we need the dew points in the 50s or lower, regardless of the temperature.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Which combo is easier on climate control systems? 

if you're talking about air conditioning the combo with the higher humidity is probably worse because of how they work (condensation systems)

2010 with 101 degrees and 45 dew point was much easier to handle than 2019 which had 99 degrees and a heat index of 117 (I forgot what the dew point was those 2 weekend days.)

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 6/15/2025 at 6:05 PM, LibertyBell said:

a firsthand acct

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/weather/comments/6zjtby/did_the_140f_kopperl_tx_heat_burst_of_june_1960/

1birder
•
2y ago
I lived on a farm outside Kopperl when this happened. I was nine years old and I remember waking up in the middle of the night when our old window water cooler went off. It was eerily silent and then the house was hit by a very strong and HOT wind. My father decided we needed to go to the storm cellar outside the back door and we stayed in there for quite a while. Later we saw the large advertising thermometer at Riddle's Bait shop in Kopperl which had burst from the heat. On the news we saw photos of someone's cotton field and all the plants were scorched. Very, very strange but I had no idea this was such a land mark event.

I wrote three comments in different places about the event that you might be able to read if you search my name. I don't know why anyone would doubt that this happened. DFW news stations have shown video taken at the time that clearly pictured the scorched cotton crop. More damage may have been shown but that is what I remember most clearly....along with the shattered thermometer at Riddle's Bait shop. As far as an accurate exact temperature I doubt that could ever be confirmed unless someone in Kopperl was "into" weather and had good instrumentation. The Meridian Tribune is a good county weekly newspaper and they could run something asking for information from others who lived through the event. I was only 9 so someone who was older at the time would be better able to give details. This was a very strange event but I remember being much more frightened when we had to go to the storm cellar during tornados.

I ran this scenario by AI and it concluded the temperature could have reached no more than about 100-110F. It said the warming from a heat burst [compressional heating] would be no greater than the dry adiabatic warming rate, and that a surface temperature of 140F would require an upper atmospheric temperature that would be implausibly high. It suggested the burst thermometers were likely the result of instrument failure due to the sudden change in temperature. Not sure if any atmospheric scientist might want to weigh in.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I ran this scenario by AI and it concluded the temperature could have reached no more than about 100-110F. It said the warming from a heat burst [compressional heating] would be no greater than the dry adiabatic warming rate, and that a surface temperature of 140F would require an upper atmospheric temperature that would be implausibly high. It suggested the burst thermometers were likely the result of instrument failure due to the sudden change in temperature. Not sure if any atmospheric scientist might want to weigh in.

what about the burnt fields of cotton?

 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

what about the burnt fields of cotton?

 

How would that even happen? Doesn't cotton burn at a temperature similar to paper? Like 400+ degrees?