May 17th-20th severe weather discussion

[Chinook]

There may be quite a bit of interest on this forum in the next few days due to the multiple severe weather outlooks. Finally, I believe we will see lots of storm chaser action in the Plains, after a period of quiet weather for the region. Here are the next 4 days of outlooks.

Saturday

 

Sunday

 

Monday

 

Tuesday

[Chinook]

Here is one convection allowing model (WRF-ARW) for tomorrow

[Chinook]

The HRRR runs have several intense helicity tracks across the enhanced-moderate risk area. A little bit away from OKC and Wichita.

15% hatched tornado risk in the area of Wichita.

[Chinook]

large tornado north of Scott City KS (Elkader)

[Chinook]

Arnett, Oklahoma area, chasers reported a tornado and up to 3.5" hail

 

 

 

 

[mob1]

This looks primed to take off. Ingested a bit of junk convection but if it can stay clean it'll be in a good environment. 

[mob1]

28 minutes ago, mob1 said:

This looks primed to take off. Ingested a bit of junk convection but if it can stay clean it'll be in a good environment. 

PDS warned now

[Chinook]

This is west of Weatherford, Texas

[mob1]

https://x.com/Sekai_WX/status/1924271751128563984

Looked ominous on radar but holy hell!

[Chinook]

Today, we saw some widely-spaced intense tornadoes, but not a lot happened in the mid-Kansas area that was most highlighted, as all tornado reports are a long way from Wichita.

Tomorrow's outlook has an enhanced outlook for hail, wind, and tornadoes

[mob1]

Tornado emergency for Geensburg. 

[Powerball]

Tornado Warning for Denton/Collin Counties right now with that long-track supercell. It's only radar indicated for now.

Also, a separate Severe Thunderstorm Warning for destructive winds (80 MPH) just went out for the same cell.

It should slip by just to my north though.

[snowlover2]

Tornado Warning
KSC097-190330-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0009.250519T0248Z-250519T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
948 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR GREENSBURG...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Kiowa County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 947 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was
  observed near Greensburg, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  TORNADO EMERGENCY for GREENSBURG. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Greensburg around 955 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is ongoing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors.. Move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3751 9939 3773 9932 3767 9904 3749 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 221DEG 25KT 3753 9931

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

[mob1]

https://x.com/IsaacWx_/status/1924296288197087657

 

That's one big tornado 

 

 

[mob1]

That doesn't look good 

 

[Chinook]

Here is the high rotation south of Greensburg a half hour ago, with some TDS visible

[Chinook]

a new tornado has formed south of Greensburg. The tornado that just missed Greensburg has been large