2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has an active storm track through the Great Lakes for the crew in the favored lake effect snow zones.

 

Looks more like an abundance of LES with this slp mean imho.

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Looks more like an abundance of LES with this slp mean imho.

I should have added, looks like overrunning threats for the NE, or snow to rain/mix.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I get the feeling there will be no in-between this winter. We'll know early on (in December, or even November) if this winter is going to be a cold and snow fest (like 13-14) or if it's going to be an absolute blowtorch with very little snow (like 11-12). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think the Pacific will continue to be much more important than what the NAO does. The last time we saw a few KU events was back in January 2022 with a solid +NAO pattern. The key was the strong MJO 8 which allowed the Pacific Jet to relax for a month.  That was the last time many of us had a cold and snowy month. So we would want to see improvement from the Pacific Jet.

No argument there...but all else equal, I would like a negative NAO that is in retreat, per Archambault research.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

5H Dec-Feb Euro

Looks just like some of my prelimary composites...which is probably a bad sign for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has the same winter pattern at 500mb as we are getting this summer. It’s a -EPO +PNA and Southeast Ridge pattern. Pattern persistence or the model is in repeater mode?  Stay tuned….

 

I don't think that is a particulary balmy look for the NE during winter. Its also not a KU pattern....but that looks to me like a good cold supply in se Canada, which bodes well at least for a lot of NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm hoping for a good early season blocking. At least the trickle down effects of that block will happen in January and February, a time when it can snow. A good late season blocking isn't going to save us. (2023 is a good example. Not a great early season block, but a very good late season one. By the time the cold pattern was in place from that block, it was May and June. The cold was impressive, as we didn't get that type of cold during that time of the year in nearly 40 years, but it isn't going to snow in June.)

It would have saved me if the PNA weren't in the tank...I am fair game into the first week of April.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am just commenting on what the model is showing. It’s striking how similar it is to the 500mb pattern we are getting this summer. If we do get a pattern resembling that next winter, then maybe the worst in terms of those strong -PNAs like we had in 21-22 and 22-23 is behind us. But it looks like the model still wants to go with the storm track through the Great Lakes which has been persistent since 18-19.

Agreed...not a KU pattern, however, with ample cold in SE Canada, that is conducive to SWFE and Miller B redevemopment depending on how much and how quickly energy consolidates west-which may not be much given a more neutral PNA. This is why I have been saying give me 2022-2023 with a bit less of a neg PNA, which was into the Baja that year.

There is more than one way to skin a weenie-

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks more like an abundance of LES with this slp mean imho.

Nice map.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I should have added, looks like overrunning threats for the NE, or snow to rain/mix.

Bingo- Not everything needs to have a KU chapter dedicated to it to produce appreciable snowfall in the NE.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think that is a particulary balmy look for the NE during winter. Its also not a KU pattern....but that looks to me like a good cold supply in se Canada, which bodes well at least for a lot of NE.

If something resembling that pattern verifies, then elevation and higher latitude will be your friend in the Northeast like we have seen during recent seasons. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If something resembling that pattern verifies, then elevation and higher latitude will be your friend in the Northeast like we have seen during recent seasons. 

Absolutely agree with this, but I would take the under on the degree of latitude and elevation needed relative to recent seasons. Like I said, you aren't getting all of that energy to consolidate as far west without a trough to Baja.

[bluewave]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely agree with this, but I would take the under on the degree of latitude and elevation needed relative to recent seasons.

Just wondering were the seasonal model error will actually be during the winter since we seldom see perfect forecasts from any of the models from this range.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks just like some of my prelimary composites...which is probably a bad sign for me.

 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Just wondering were the seasonal model error will actually be during the winter since we seldom see perfect forecasts from any of the models from this range.

Yup. I will say that the bias is often towards stock ENSO, which was true last season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks more like an abundance of LES with this slp mean imho.

I would think it would be tough to get too many major lows plowing through the lakes with a vortex INVO of Hudson's Bay....these charts scream SWFE/Miller B to me. Also trying to think of what would bias the models towards higher heights over AK in a cool ENSO. They would have to be underestimating La Nina and/or developing it too far east. I am confident this isn't going to be a robust Nina, so I buy the -EPO, which aligns with all of my early seasonal work. Now, maybe they are underdoing CC and it will be generally somewhat warmer...okay. Maybe they are also underplaying the +WPO influence given how stout that West warm pool is, but it may be tough to get the +WPO to exotic levels with stout EPO blocking.

Interesting-

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Yup. I will say that the bias is often towards stock ENSO, which was true last season.

I think the last time the Euro seasonal had reasonably good winter forecast from October was 21-22. The forecast from August 21 was a miss.

During the October forecast it got the idea of the -PNA correct for December. But the magnitude of the warmth and -PNA depth was way underdone. Probably related to the inability to correctly model the MJO beyond 1-2 weeks out.

Then the January forecast was a miss since the MJO 8 wasn’t forecast beyond the late December period. February was reasonably close. Plus the 3 month mean blended together was OK.

It wasn’t a mismatch type winter so it didn’t throw the seasonal off like we got last October which we were discussing last year. 

So probably just wait until we see how the October MJO indicator works out and what the model shows at that point.  

[mitchnick]

Some better images off WxBell posted in the MA forum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the last time the Euro seasonal had reasonably good winter forecast from October was 21-22. The forecast from August 21 was a miss.

During the October forecast it got the idea of the -PNA correct for December. But the magnitude of the warmth and -PNA depth was way underdone. Probably related to the inability to correctly model the MJO beyond 1-2 weeks out.

Then the January forecast was a miss since the MJO 8 wasn’t forecast beyond the late December period. February was reasonably close. Plus the 3 month mean blended together was OK.

It wasn’t a mismatch type winter so it didn’t throw the seasonal off like we got last October which we were discussing last year. 

So probably just wait until we see how the October MJO indicator works out and what the model shows at that point.  

Pretend I just injected you with truth serum....say the EURO had just come off of the presses with a HUGE southeast ridge, vortex over AK and about a +5 anomaly thoughout most of the NE....would you honestly be shifting the topic to the inaccuracy of seasonal models?

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That precip pattern also screams "Miller B" to me....check out how the swath of negative precip anomalies abates over central NE, and we see a redevelopment of + anomalies to the southeast. Makes sense given the vortex situated near HB in the pressure anomaly chart.

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretend I just injected you with truth serum....say the EURO had just come off of the presses with a HUGE southeast ridge, vortex over AK and about a +5 anomaly thoughout most of the NE....would you honestly be shifting the topic to the inaccuracy of seasonal models?

Pretty funny. But the Euro has never shown a +5 anomaly in the Northeast from a seasonal forecast issued in the summer or fall. While we have had numerous warm anomalies near that magnitude since 15-16.

If seasonal models can get at least one or two elements correct with a seasonal forecast, then we should be happy.

I think the JMA back in October 2013 was the last time one of these seasonal models really hit it out of the park.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Glad you're a good sport, Chris. I agree that the seasnal consensus probably doesn't have the pattern nailed. But if I had to pick two elements that I am most confident in, it would be ridging INVO AK and a primary storm track inland from the east coast.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Did you guys see the CANSIPS 0.0 month lead forecast for July?

Congrats Iowa

The Euro has had some big misses the past 2 Winters, from the Fall. I honestly think that seasonal models should be built to do better, You can run forward certain variables and get a picture. I always wondered if you take and combine analog data from 200 world cities, if it would produce a successful roll forward. 

[GaWx]

 Since ACE is discussed here as a winter forecast factor, the new Euro monthly seasonal forecast has substantially increased from the near 30 year normal of last month’s forecast, which had ~125 ACE, to today’s ~155. The 155 incorporates the 1.5 prior to August, the well AN ~40 that the latest Weeklies have for August, and the well AN 130% of 1993-2024 based climo that today’s new Euro has for Sept+.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, GaWx said:

 Since ACE is discussed here as a winter forecast factor, the new Euro monthly seasonal forecast has substantially increased from the near normal of last month’s forecast, which had ~125 ACE/NN, to today’s ~155. The 155 incorporates the 1.5 prior to August, the well AN ~42 that the latest Weeklies have for August, and the well AN 130% of 1995-2024 based climo that today’s new Euro has for Sept+.

Wow...I didn't expect it to bump up ACE. May be a fercious finish-

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow...I didn't expect it to bump up ACE. May be a fercious finish-

Maybe but not just the finish. The Weeklies have quite an active August.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Glad you're a good sport, Chris. I agree that the seasnal consensus probably doesn't have the pattern nailed. But if I had to pick two elements that I am most confident in, it would be ridging INVO AK and a primary storm track inland from the east coast.

Yeah, unfortunately that storm track inland from the East Coast has become a persistent feature since 18-19. Plus we have seen some version of a highly amplified North Pacific ridge most years since 16-17. Some years the ridge axis lines up more with the Aleutians and other years it’s closer to the West Coast. Either way we never miss an opportunity for the Southeast ridge  to overperform especially near storm time.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Since ACE is discussed here as a winter forecast factor, the new Euro monthly seasonal forecast has substantially increased from the near 30 year normal of last month’s forecast, which had ~125 ACE, to today’s ~155. The 155 incorporates the 1.5 prior to August, the well AN ~42 that the latest Weeklies have for August, and the well AN 130% of 1993-2024 based climo that today’s new Euro has for Sept+.

Does the Euro develop La Nina? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, unfortunately that storm track inland from the East Coast has become a persistent feature since 18-19. Plus we have seen some version of a highly amplified North Pacific ridge mist years since 16-17. Some years the ridge axis lines up more with the Aleutians and other years it’s closer to the West Coast. Either way we never miss an opportunity for the Southeast Ridge to overperform especially near storm time.

It snowed here 15 times last December through mid January in +PNA.. I will always take a +PNA pattern, I think it's somewhat underestimated. It also has 4x lower coastal SLP correlation vs -PNA. 

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Does the Euro develop La Nina? 

Chuck, I didn’t look at ENSO yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Maybe but not just the finish. The Weeklies have quite an active August.

I mean the balance of the season by "finish"....