jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: Negative PDO may have peaked with notable cooling around Japan over the past 15 days. Good. Hopefully lots of typhoons in that area this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Subsurface for June and the first half of July. Interesting dichotomy between the warm neutral subsurface and the cold neutral surface: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: Narrowly focused into the Bay Area in an otherwise sea of warm across the Northern Hemisphere this summer. "40/70....I am your father" (breathes heavily) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 22 minutes ago, GaWx said: Interesting dichotomy between the warm neutral subsurface and the cold neutral surface: Probably warm ENSO for 2026-2027. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @bluewaveSeriously, though....I do recall telling you last season that I expected your October MJO indicator to be amplified and favorable and I do expect that again, so we'll see. We have only had one October really amplified MJO 5-6 during each multiyear La Niña going back to 2010. October 2024…+2.76…October 2020…+2.81….October 2017…+3.35….October 2010….+2.88. The other La Niña years surrounding these in each group had a weaker October MJO in 5-6 like in 2022, 2021, 2016, and 2011. So the more amplified October years featured La Niña +PNA mismatches. With the exception of last year, these were very snowy winters. But the WPAC pattern and Pacific Jet never relaxed last winter like all the previous mismatch winters did. This is what I was pointing out last year why I mentioned early on that there were competing influences which didn’t exist during the other winters. So not to expect the same type of outcome. So this would be a first time occurrence if the MJO 5 peaked again this October in the +2.76 to +3.35 range. Seems like it’s some type of fall forcing event which affects the winter PNA during La Ninas. It’s why my guess a few months back that this 25-26 winter will be warmer than last winter was with the PNA averaging less positive than last winter did. But since the snowfall was so low last winter, it wouldn’t take much for one decent snow event to surpass last seasons snowfall totals from around Philly to Boston. Plus it’s possible that we could get a least one winter month with a decent +PNA like we saw in January 2022 even though the PNA was strongly negative in December tilting the whole winter -PNA. That was largely driven by the MJO 8. January 2022 was the last winter month around NYC which was both cold and snowy especially Long Island. We have also seen very impressive 500 ridges in Canada since the 2023-2024 El Niño generally boosting the +PNA. So we’ll have to wait for the October verification this year to know if it will be like past multiyear La Ninas following the mismatch winters like we had in 2024-2025. Always have to leave open the possibility of a first time occurrence with back to back mismatch events. But this hasn’t happened yet since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted 27 minutes ago Share Posted 27 minutes ago 22 hours ago, bluewave said: The only thing consistent about Ann Arbor’s winter temperatures since the late 1800s has been a steady warming trend. December is up +4.3° with Jan at +3.2° and February +6.1°. The snowfall has seen a nice increase over this period as you pointed out. This could be a function of the warming winters holding more moisture while still being sufficiently cold enough to increase the snow. It’s one of the benefits of living in a colder region. But this benefit isn’t held by other less warm regions which have seen a steady decrease in snowfall with their rising temperatures. But relative to other parts of Michigan which can really cash in on lake effect snows, the SE corner was never a particularly wintry part of the state compared to areas further north. But at least places like Ann Arbor have seen a decent improvement relative to the old days which didn’t see as much snow. Remember this is a coop station. The data is suspiciously cold. One thing that IS good about stations like this (coop stations, unmoved for 140+ years) is that you can still see the "good" and "not good" winters by comparing Ann Arbor to nearby Detroit. I have noted on multiple occasions that locally December has warmed the most, January not at all, and February slightly over the last 100 years. And Ann Arbor is yet another station that shows this. An increase of 3.4F in Dec, 0.0F in Jan, 1.5F in Feb. Avg January temperature regression the last 100 years (1926-2025) Toledo: -0.8F Detroit: -0.4F Flint: -0.1F Ann Arbor: 0.0F Saginaw: +0.3F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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